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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm


Tom

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Latest NAM keeps basically everything north of the metro. I am having a hard time trying to work through its solution. Is that a giant dry slot that is causing the havoc? 850's appear to be fine most of the time. Just looks like QPF gets lowered this run.

Edit: After further thought it must be a dry slot, there is quite the sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots.

Really close call for the metro. The warm air surge in the upper layers gets hung up somewhere. Not sure any model can really figure out where that will be yet. Seems like MPX right now thinks it will be north of the metro, meaning rain/mix for a while on Saturday. Still not sure though, hence the reason for extending the watch. This might easily turn into a nowcast event.

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Incredible week for the northern woods of WI. 14” a few days ago with another 9-15” this weekend. Lost power first time around but generator worked like a charm. Winter in full force.

Awesome.....enjoy it! ;)

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Made it up to Traverse but stuck following on my phone until I solve a WiFi SNAFU with my laptop. Just had enough time this morning to see a WSWatch was hoisted. Pretty much made my day, haha. Surprised how many large plow piles are left here, even down at the waterfront. Those arctic blasts were RARE to do that here with the first snow of a season. Inland today was a decent covering left from Thursday morning's 1-2" of LES. North of hwy 20 temps dropped to freezing or below and ponds were noticeably iced up, ready for more snow. Congrats to MN Peeps on their Warnings. Hoping things hold here for a warning. Caught TWC map at McD's and they had 8-12" fwiw. So festive up here in the 4 seasoms vacation haven! Best of luck to those in the game!

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This thing is splitting around Iowa.  Models early in the week were bullish on widespread rain across the region today, but it's not happening.

 

The Iowa-Nebraska game earlier didn't see much rain.

 

hrrr_apcpn_ncus_17.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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MPX nowcast:

 

Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0C

line from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the very

strong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamical

cooling and more snow will result than what the models are

projecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, and

could result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18Z

GFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera method

illustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6

inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang

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I have been pretty much out of the game on the north side of this one for about 3 days. But as this storm gets closer I have a gut feeling this is going to turn into a flop of a storm for all of northern Minnesota. It's just taking to long for the moisture to get north. Central MN looks to be the winner at the moment.

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If there is ever a time to get dry slotted it's when your not going to get any snow anyway. All ready had my fill of a cold rain for this month.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MPX lowering totals-

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
348 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

A few minor changes to the forecast, but overall the winter storm
remains on track to bring snow across the north, with a wintry mix
across the south today. Later tonight everyone will transition over
to snow as colder moves across the region and the thermal profiles
cool. The snow will exit the region on Sunday. Winds will start out
easterly this morning, and then back with time to a more northerly
direction for Sunday.

The subtleties and non-linear properties of the atmosphere will be
on full display today as an occluded storm system brings waves of
precipitation across the Upper Midwest. As has been the case for
some time, areas across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will be
cooler and have mainly snow. Given the long duration of this event,
snowfall amounts in excess of a foot are expected. Areas to the
south have a warm layer aloft that will lead to some partial melting,
while the sub-freezing layer beneath it should be deep enough for
some refreezing and sleet, generally along the I-94 corridor. This
will cut back on snowfall amounts. In addition, surface temps are
forecast to hoover slightly above freezing, so this too will cut
down on snow ratios, and thus snowfall amounts. If temperatures are
a bit cooler, then one can expect the higher snowfall amounts to
shift southward.

With that caveat in mind, the reasoning behind lowering snow amounts
across the Twin Cities and Eau Claire region are as follows.
Forecast soundings off the RAP/HRRR show a warm layer around the
750mb level, with elevated instability aloft. These types of set ups
tend to favor a more cellular look to the precipitation, with
embedded graupel/sleet. (For what it`s worth, the reflectivity
output of the HiRes models support this as well.) Trended toward
that solution, so have lower snowfall amounts. For example, the
30.00Z GFS has 4 to 5 inches of snow from this afternoon and evening
through 05Z Sunday for both the Twin Cities and Eau Claire WI.
Meanwhile the RAP/HRRR have only 1 to 2 inches. This discrepancy is
less evident at St Cloud, where the GFS has again 4 to 5 inches,
while the RAP/HRRR come in with around 3 inches. Lastly, all 3
models are in very good agreement a bit farther north in Little
Falls MN. Assuming these higher resolution, more current models have
a better depiction of the atmosphere, one would lean more heavily on
them as the event nears, and for that reason have less overall
snowfall along and east-to-west line through the Twin Cities, but
similar amounts to the previous forecast along the northern tier of
counties.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MPX nowcast:

 

Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0C

line from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the very

strong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamical

cooling and more snow will result than what the models are

projecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, and

could result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18Z

GFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera method

illustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6

inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang

Being later in the game- I think these totals are too high. Further N is where you wanna be.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Not sure it means much at this point, but the GFS now drops a 14” bomb on MSP.

Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At this time it is cloudy and 34° here at my house. And the wind is picking up. One thing for sure it looks like a cold rain for later today and will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures. My guess at this time is a very cold rain here with more ice just to the north but we shall see.

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Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

These iffy thermal situations seem to rarely work out favorably. We’ll see what happens with this. Gonna be some very different snow totals within a short distance. Good luck with this one!

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Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

We will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures today in tonight. At this time I have a temperature of 34 and the wind is picking up a little. One thing I would point out is that there is a Winter Storm Watch out for the thumb but Lake Huron is still warm so that may not help the temps with a NE wind,  As far as I can see there has never been a ice storm in Michigan in November. And if the winds do pick up to 40 MPH with any ice that will be a big problem. My guess is that any ice will be north of GR.

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NAM up to over 8 inches of snow here and trending farther south each run

12z NAM not only further S, but stalls in S LM delivering the perfect pivot for the Mitt! Geez be right for once lol.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_16.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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At WMIjim

 

Yeah, November is not ice storm season traditionally. Having said that, this has been anything but a "typical" start to winter. So who really knows??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like we benefit from night time passage of th SLP too. NAM pops us above freezing very briefly here in Traverse then stays solidly below.

 

HRDPS is very similar and brings 12+ around here. Most storms have gotten more robust as they hit The Lakes. Will this one continue that trend, or break it??

 

hrdps_asnow_ncus_48.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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