Tom Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 There were reports of 3.5-4”/hr snowfall rates in Flagstaff! Just incredible. So much juice with this system. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Latest NAM keeps basically everything north of the metro. I am having a hard time trying to work through its solution. Is that a giant dry slot that is causing the havoc? 850's appear to be fine most of the time. Just looks like QPF gets lowered this run.Edit: After further thought it must be a dry slot, there is quite the sharp cutoff between the haves and have nots.Really close call for the metro. The warm air surge in the upper layers gets hung up somewhere. Not sure any model can really figure out where that will be yet. Seems like MPX right now thinks it will be north of the metro, meaning rain/mix for a while on Saturday. Still not sure though, hence the reason for extending the watch. This might easily turn into a nowcast event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Incredible week for the northern woods of WI. 14” a few days ago with another 9-15” this weekend. Lost power first time around but generator worked like a charm. Winter in full force. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Incredible week for the northern woods of WI. 14” a few days ago with another 9-15” this weekend. Lost power first time around but generator worked like a charm. Winter in full force.You made it up there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Incredible week for the northern woods of WI. 14” a few days ago with another 9-15” this weekend. Lost power first time around but generator worked like a charm. Winter in full force.Awesome.....enjoy it! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted November 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 12z Canadien... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 12z Canadien... There must be some kind of bias in the Canadian or something that is just not initializing right. It has been going nuts for a few runs here. (I do hope it is right though) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 12z Euro bringing the sauce and isn’t much different than the GEM here. 10” for the metro using 10:1. Keeps the mixed precip south and east. Ratios will be low so would probably yield closer to 7-8” of cement. This is gonna be wild regardless of what happens. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Saddle up Stormgeek. You’re gonna get blasted at your place. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro appears to keep it cold enough for mostly snow in the Twin Cities. The Minnesota-Wisconsin game tomorrow should be wild. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 And just like that.....MPX upgrades the metro to a warning. Oh man. 6-9” of snow with an ice glaze and winds to 40mph. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Saddle up Stormgeek. You’re gonna get blasted at your place.Holy toledo, go Euro. I am going to be sitting basically on the 12 inch line if that verifies verbatim. Let's hope the Canadian is right and we both get to share the pounding! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 And just like that.....MPX upgrades the metro to a warning. Oh man. 6-9” of snow with an ice glaze and winds to 40mph.You think they weren't waiting for the Euro with baited breath. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Euro appears to keep it cold enough for mostly snow in the Twin Cities. The Minnesota-Wisconsin game tomorrow should be wild. Not going to the game but I’ll be at the tailgate party at 8am. Gonna be an epic game in those conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 You think they weren't waiting for the Euro with baited breath. There is absolutely no doubt about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 18z NAM back to a snowier picture for the metro. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 29, 2019 Report Share Posted November 29, 2019 Been a busy day...just catching up on the latest runs. 18z GFS playing catch-up as usual. Pounds the metro with 8” and over 12” northern burbs. 6-12” in the point. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Made it up to Traverse but stuck following on my phone until I solve a WiFi SNAFU with my laptop. Just had enough time this morning to see a WSWatch was hoisted. Pretty much made my day, haha. Surprised how many large plow piles are left here, even down at the waterfront. Those arctic blasts were RARE to do that here with the first snow of a season. Inland today was a decent covering left from Thursday morning's 1-2" of LES. North of hwy 20 temps dropped to freezing or below and ponds were noticeably iced up, ready for more snow. Congrats to MN Peeps on their Warnings. Hoping things hold here for a warning. Caught TWC map at McD's and they had 8-12" fwiw. So festive up here in the 4 seasoms vacation haven! Best of luck to those in the game! 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Been a busy day...just catching up on the latest runs. 18z GFS playing catch-up as usual. Pounds the metro with 8” and over 12” northern burbs. 6-12” in the point.Good luck on this one, it looks like things are going to line up great! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 This thing is splitting around Iowa. Models early in the week were bullish on widespread rain across the region today, but it's not happening. The Iowa-Nebraska game earlier didn't see much rain. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 MPX nowcast: Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0Cline from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the verystrong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamicalcooling and more snow will result than what the models areprojecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, andcould result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18ZGFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera methodillustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 About to start here within the next 30 min. Good luck to the few in play! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Not sure it means much at this point, but the GFS now drops a 14” bomb on MSP. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Have fun SPS. heck of 4 day stretch! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beltrami Island Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 I have been pretty much out of the game on the north side of this one for about 3 days. But as this storm gets closer I have a gut feeling this is going to turn into a flop of a storm for all of northern Minnesota. It's just taking to long for the moisture to get north. Central MN looks to be the winner at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 If there is ever a time to get dry slotted it's when your not going to get any snow anyway. All ready had my fill of a cold rain for this month. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 We had a 90% chance of rain this afternoon and tonight and all we had was a brief passing shower about 1pm and that’s been it. Which is fine bc who wants rain and 35 degrees in November? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Euro coming in hot and heavy. Absolutely steamrolls my place. Think models finally are getting a handle. Lowest output as of now is the High-Res GFS with 7 inches. Locked and loaded, let the party commence. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 MPX lowering totals- Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN348 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019A few minor changes to the forecast, but overall the winter stormremains on track to bring snow across the north, with a wintry mixacross the south today. Later tonight everyone will transition overto snow as colder moves across the region and the thermal profilescool. The snow will exit the region on Sunday. Winds will start outeasterly this morning, and then back with time to a more northerlydirection for Sunday.The subtleties and non-linear properties of the atmosphere will beon full display today as an occluded storm system brings waves ofprecipitation across the Upper Midwest. As has been the case forsome time, areas across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will becooler and have mainly snow. Given the long duration of this event,snowfall amounts in excess of a foot are expected. Areas to thesouth have a warm layer aloft that will lead to some partial melting,while the sub-freezing layer beneath it should be deep enough forsome refreezing and sleet, generally along the I-94 corridor. Thiswill cut back on snowfall amounts. In addition, surface temps areforecast to hoover slightly above freezing, so this too will cutdown on snow ratios, and thus snowfall amounts. If temperatures area bit cooler, then one can expect the higher snowfall amounts toshift southward.With that caveat in mind, the reasoning behind lowering snow amountsacross the Twin Cities and Eau Claire region are as follows.Forecast soundings off the RAP/HRRR show a warm layer around the750mb level, with elevated instability aloft. These types of set upstend to favor a more cellular look to the precipitation, withembedded graupel/sleet. (For what it`s worth, the reflectivityoutput of the HiRes models support this as well.) Trended towardthat solution, so have lower snowfall amounts. For example, the30.00Z GFS has 4 to 5 inches of snow from this afternoon and eveningthrough 05Z Sunday for both the Twin Cities and Eau Claire WI.Meanwhile the RAP/HRRR have only 1 to 2 inches. This discrepancy isless evident at St Cloud, where the GFS has again 4 to 5 inches,while the RAP/HRRR come in with around 3 inches. Lastly, all 3models are in very good agreement a bit farther north in LittleFalls MN. Assuming these higher resolution, more current models havea better depiction of the atmosphere, one would lean more heavily onthem as the event nears, and for that reason have less overallsnowfall along and east-to-west line through the Twin Cities, butsimilar amounts to the previous forecast along the northern tier ofcounties. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 MPX nowcast: Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0Cline from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the verystrong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamicalcooling and more snow will result than what the models areprojecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, andcould result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18ZGFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera methodillustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rangBeing later in the game- I think these totals are too high. Further N is where you wanna be. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 12z HRRR is bad news for the twin cities. That dry slot means business and when the storm does get its act together it’s drawing warm air in on the southern edge. 12z run only has 1-2” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Here’s the 12z HRRR run. Still showing a good hit. RAP is north of the HRRR. 12Z NAMs similar to HRRR. About 2” of snow fell overnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Not sure it means much at this point, but the GFS now drops a 14” bomb on MSP.Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 NAM up to over 8 inches of snow here and trending farther south each run 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 At this time it is cloudy and 34° here at my house. And the wind is picking up. One thing for sure it looks like a cold rain for later today and will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures. My guess at this time is a very cold rain here with more ice just to the north but we shall see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.These iffy thermal situations seem to rarely work out favorably. We’ll see what happens with this. Gonna be some very different snow totals within a short distance. Good luck with this one! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.We will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures today in tonight. At this time I have a temperature of 34 and the wind is picking up a little. One thing I would point out is that there is a Winter Storm Watch out for the thumb but Lake Huron is still warm so that may not help the temps with a NE wind, As far as I can see there has never been a ice storm in Michigan in November. And if the winds do pick up to 40 MPH with any ice that will be a big problem. My guess is that any ice will be north of GR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 NAM up to over 8 inches of snow here and trending farther south each run12z NAM not only further S, but stalls in S LM delivering the perfect pivot for the Mitt! Geez be right for once lol. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 At WMIjim Yeah, November is not ice storm season traditionally. Having said that, this has been anything but a "typical" start to winter. So who really knows?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like we benefit from night time passage of th SLP too. NAM pops us above freezing very briefly here in Traverse then stays solidly below. HRDPS is very similar and brings 12+ around here. Most storms have gotten more robust as they hit The Lakes. Will this one continue that trend, or break it?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.