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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm


Tom

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Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSP

Yep. ICON super stingy with snow everywhere! Even GFS now has much more for the Mitt. I do see a growing consensus with taking the SLP to S LM and stalling it there as the snow shield swings around thru NMI. This would go a long ways to mitigate the WTOD and make this much less of a mixy mess and much more a legit snowstorm. Euro with a perfect SLP pivot and the 850s look great too:

 

ecmwf_T850_ncus_3.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This is not exactly how I expected this storm to look. Some weird banding going on with occasional bursts of precip. Can tell I'm right on the thermal boundary; sleet and snow mixing whenever there is precip. Never seen it like that before.

Remind me again how far north of the metro you live? 20-30 miles or so?

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Welp. Despite what I thought were positive SR Model trends the NWS offices have decided to go the other direction and issued the WWA's

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Is it just me or does it look like the GFS from several days ago wasn't that far off with the higher storm totals further north, dry slot, etc? I wasn't paying a lot of attention to this one since I was never in the game, but I remember seeing everyone saying how far north it was compared to the other models.

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I'm not savvy at deciphering skew-T graphics, but it seems that their snow maps should align with any warm layers being depicted. With most models showing more snow than the current headlines, it's an interesting battle setting up across this region.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Some 12z maps:

 

GEM

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (1).png

 

GFS

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (2).png

 

Euro

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (3).png

 

NAM

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (4).png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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More..

 

RGEMsn10_acc.us_mw (5).png

 

GEFS

 

snod.conus.png

 

HRRR

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (6).png

 

RAP

 

sn10_acc.conus (1).png

 

RAP is only thru 9 am but still looks pretty good with snow well south over WMI

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like we may avoid the dry slot. 20z HRRR showing this. Current radar trends show its gonna be close. Moderate frozen precip now. The big snow totals won’t verify but we should see some good snow tonight.

How are winds?

 

For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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How are winds?

For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?

Winds howl at times and then die down to almost nothing. When it flips to snow it’s like cement. Decent flakes but very wet. Downgraded to an advisory here. We should see a few inches tonight before we turn the page to December. Short term models appear to have had the thermals pinned down pretty well. Good luck!
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NOAA:
 

A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning. Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly northof M-59.

UGH! I hate ice!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning.

Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly north

of M-59.

UGH! I hate ice!

Think there will be that much??

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Think there will be that much??

Hope not! Much rather have rain.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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True Blizzard in Duluth-

 

METAR: KDLH 302355Z 08027G38KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT +SN BLSN VV005 M02/M03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 07047/2326 SLP072 SNINCR 1/14 P0005 60035 T10171028 11011 21017 56021 $

 

peak wind of 54mph. 14" of snow on the ground with at least another 1' to come. impressive. even for Duluth standards.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I wish the NAM wasn't on an island to itself with the accumulating snow here! Just maybe though...

LALA Land for sure.....

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Jaster--

 

 TC is on my list (only for a couple of days).

 

Let me know how much snow you got from this system.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Just drove back 20 miles from the in-laws Thanksgiving. Drove through heavy snow squalls the entire way, it’s now puking snow here in town. I’ve already picked up about an inch of snow, it’s very possible I get a sneaky couple of inches out of this narrow band.

 

Edit: way over shot estimate. I just measured a little over and inch and now just blowing snow. Pretty cool seeing everything pasted in wet snow though, including the x mas lights!

24C53EDB-3677-4BCD-A886-B09BF672C51D.png

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So, APX's pm update actually talks about the same good trends I commented on wrt the morning model suite. Mentions diminishing issues with the warm nose/dry slotting concerns. But the trigger pulling on a WWA was almost like GRR had been making the call on headlines. Like it was a done deal already decided yesterday.

 

APX:

 

Details: Well developed deformation/trowal will be pivoting slowly

north across northern Michigan Sunday as upper level low and surface

response slide across the lower Lakes. Snow, at times heavy, will

accompany this forcing through the day. Any overnight warm nose

should rapidly collapse, leaving potential dry-slot issues to

generate any freezing drizzle/rain concerns. Latest guidance trends

are far less aggressive pivoting this dry-slot north, perhaps only

reaching our far southern border. Other issue will be persistent dry

northeast flow off the Plateau region of Ontario into eastern upper

Michigan. Expect a sharp gradient to accumulating snow to reside

across that area (some guidance never even gets snow north of M-28).

Definitely a tough call up there, unfortunately likely waiting on

real-time trends to decipher exact snow amounts. To further

complicate this mess, low level thermal environment is cold enough

to generate Lake Huron enhancement into northeast lower Michigan.

All told, looking at several more inches of accumulation, especially

north of M-72, with the highest totals (in excess of half a foot)

along and north of M-32 up through the Straits. In all likelihood,

amount of Lake Huron help likely being underdone in available

guidance, and could easily see parts of northeast lower receive

several more inches on top of the widespread system snow. Gusty east

and northeast winds will only exacerbate the already hazardous

driving conditions, producing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Definitely avoid driving if at all possible Sunday.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Jaster...anything reaching the ground up there in TC yet?

Just got back from dinner. While we were there for 90 mins a bit of rain fell, and half froze on the car. That's it so far down here in the valley.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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^- the track of the low was odd and never really favored areas outside the Dakotas and N MN and N WI. It's strength also really wrapped in some 700-850mb warm air. I'am excited for some wrap around 1" amounts !!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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