Money Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 This is not exactly how I expected this storm to look. Some weird banding going on with occasional bursts of precip. Can tell I'm right on the thermal boundary; sleet and snow mixing whenever there is precip. Never seen it like that before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSPYep. ICON super stingy with snow everywhere! Even GFS now has much more for the Mitt. I do see a growing consensus with taking the SLP to S LM and stalling it there as the snow shield swings around thru NMI. This would go a long ways to mitigate the WTOD and make this much less of a mixy mess and much more a legit snowstorm. Euro with a perfect SLP pivot and the 850s look great too: Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSPWhat does the JMA show? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Flipping between snow and heavy pingers at the moment. Temp at 32F 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 What does the JMA show?Lol someone is mad because I mentioned the icon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Lol someone is mad because I mentioned the icon?Nah. Just wanted to see your response. Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 This is not exactly how I expected this storm to look. Some weird banding going on with occasional bursts of precip. Can tell I'm right on the thermal boundary; sleet and snow mixing whenever there is precip. Never seen it like that before.Remind me again how far north of the metro you live? 20-30 miles or so? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Remind me again how far north of the metro you live? 20-30 miles or so?I am about 40 miles out of downtown Minneapolis. Edit: Maybe more like 30 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Welp. Despite what I thought were positive SR Model trends the NWS offices have decided to go the other direction and issued the WWA's Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Unbelievable ice pellet storm at the moment. Cars in the ditch north of St Paul. This is nuts. Gopher/Badger game gonna be fun this afternoon if thermals stay like this. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Is it just me or does it look like the GFS from several days ago wasn't that far off with the higher storm totals further north, dry slot, etc? I wasn't paying a lot of attention to this one since I was never in the game, but I remember seeing everyone saying how far north it was compared to the other models. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 I'm not savvy at deciphering skew-T graphics, but it seems that their snow maps should align with any warm layers being depicted. With most models showing more snow than the current headlines, it's an interesting battle setting up across this region. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Some 12z maps: GEM GFS Euro NAM 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Thundersnow! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Under a winter weather advisory for 2-5 inches of snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 More.. RGEM GEFS HRRR RAP RAP is only thru 9 am but still looks pretty good with snow well south over WMI 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like we may avoid the dry slot. 20z HRRR showing this. Current radar trends show its gonna be close. Moderate frozen precip now. The big snow totals won’t verify but we should see some good snow tonight. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Looks like we may avoid the dry slot. 20z HRRR showing this. Current radar trends show its gonna be close. Moderate frozen precip now. The big snow totals won’t verify but we should see some good snow tonight.How are winds? For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNTonka Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 There were two separate groups fishing (in a boat) on White Bear Lake this afternoon when I drove by! The crappy cell phone pic doesn’t quite pick them up, but it looked nasty out there! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 How are winds?For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?Winds howl at times and then die down to almost nothing. When it flips to snow it’s like cement. Decent flakes but very wet. Downgraded to an advisory here. We should see a few inches tonight before we turn the page to December. Short term models appear to have had the thermals pinned down pretty well. Good luck! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Tornado Warning my county-- https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=dmx&wwa=tornado%20warning 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Tornado warning just west of Des Moines? Grizz? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 yep -- two reports of rope tornado. Did not last long. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 NOAA: A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning. Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly northof M-59.UGH! I hate ice! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 NOAA: A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning. Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly northof M-59.UGH! I hate ice!Think there will be that much?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 Think there will be that much??Hope not! Much rather have rain. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 18zNAM likes my area: 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted November 30, 2019 Report Share Posted November 30, 2019 18zNAM likes my area: I wish the NAM wasn't on an island to itself with the accumulating snow here! Just maybe though... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Been pound town snow for about an hour. Roads are a mess. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 True Blizzard in Duluth- METAR: KDLH 302355Z 08027G38KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT +SN BLSN VV005 M02/M03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 07047/2326 SLP072 SNINCR 1/14 P0005 60035 T10171028 11011 21017 56021 $ peak wind of 54mph. 14" of snow on the ground with at least another 1' to come. impressive. even for Duluth standards. 4 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mi_Matthew Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Jaster...anything reaching the ground up there in TC yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I wish the NAM wasn't on an island to itself with the accumulating snow here! Just maybe though...LALA Land for sure..... Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Jaster-- TC is on my list (only for a couple of days). Let me know how much snow you got from this system. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just drove back 20 miles from the in-laws Thanksgiving. Drove through heavy snow squalls the entire way, it’s now puking snow here in town. I’ve already picked up about an inch of snow, it’s very possible I get a sneaky couple of inches out of this narrow band. Edit: way over shot estimate. I just measured a little over and inch and now just blowing snow. Pretty cool seeing everything pasted in wet snow though, including the x mas lights! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 So, APX's pm update actually talks about the same good trends I commented on wrt the morning model suite. Mentions diminishing issues with the warm nose/dry slotting concerns. But the trigger pulling on a WWA was almost like GRR had been making the call on headlines. Like it was a done deal already decided yesterday. APX: Details: Well developed deformation/trowal will be pivoting slowlynorth across northern Michigan Sunday as upper level low and surfaceresponse slide across the lower Lakes. Snow, at times heavy, willaccompany this forcing through the day. Any overnight warm noseshould rapidly collapse, leaving potential dry-slot issues togenerate any freezing drizzle/rain concerns. Latest guidance trendsare far less aggressive pivoting this dry-slot north, perhaps onlyreaching our far southern border. Other issue will be persistent drynortheast flow off the Plateau region of Ontario into eastern upperMichigan. Expect a sharp gradient to accumulating snow to resideacross that area (some guidance never even gets snow north of M-28).Definitely a tough call up there, unfortunately likely waiting onreal-time trends to decipher exact snow amounts. To furthercomplicate this mess, low level thermal environment is cold enoughto generate Lake Huron enhancement into northeast lower Michigan.All told, looking at several more inches of accumulation, especiallynorth of M-72, with the highest totals (in excess of half a foot)along and north of M-32 up through the Straits. In all likelihood,amount of Lake Huron help likely being underdone in availableguidance, and could easily see parts of northeast lower receiveseveral more inches on top of the widespread system snow. Gusty eastand northeast winds will only exacerbate the already hazardousdriving conditions, producing areas of blowing and drifting snow.Definitely avoid driving if at all possible Sunday. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Jaster...anything reaching the ground up there in TC yet?Just got back from dinner. While we were there for 90 mins a bit of rain fell, and half froze on the car. That's it so far down here in the valley. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I could be wrong but it sure seems like this storm underperformed on the whole. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I could be wrong but it sure seems like this storm underperformed on the whole.Boarderline temp events often tend to Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 ^- the track of the low was odd and never really favored areas outside the Dakotas and N MN and N WI. It's strength also really wrapped in some 700-850mb warm air. I'am excited for some wrap around 1" amounts !!! 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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