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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm


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MPX nowcast:

 

Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0C

line from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the very

strong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamical

cooling and more snow will result than what the models are

projecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, and

could result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18Z

GFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera method

illustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6

inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang

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As the storm wraps up here, the sun emerges.

It looks like a blizzard up here in Egg Harbor, WI.

Acquaintance of mine took  following pic before his wife tackled the driveway- (in Duluth).     Location: 3 NE HERMANTOWN, MN ( official Duluth total) Amount: 21.7 Inches Report Time: 12:00 pm CST - 1

Posted Images

I have been pretty much out of the game on the north side of this one for about 3 days. But as this storm gets closer I have a gut feeling this is going to turn into a flop of a storm for all of northern Minnesota. It's just taking to long for the moisture to get north. Central MN looks to be the winner at the moment.

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If there is ever a time to get dry slotted it's when your not going to get any snow anyway. All ready had my fill of a cold rain for this month.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MPX lowering totals-

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
348 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2019

A few minor changes to the forecast, but overall the winter storm
remains on track to bring snow across the north, with a wintry mix
across the south today. Later tonight everyone will transition over
to snow as colder moves across the region and the thermal profiles
cool. The snow will exit the region on Sunday. Winds will start out
easterly this morning, and then back with time to a more northerly
direction for Sunday.

The subtleties and non-linear properties of the atmosphere will be
on full display today as an occluded storm system brings waves of
precipitation across the Upper Midwest. As has been the case for
some time, areas across northern Minnesota and Wisconsin will be
cooler and have mainly snow. Given the long duration of this event,
snowfall amounts in excess of a foot are expected. Areas to the
south have a warm layer aloft that will lead to some partial melting,
while the sub-freezing layer beneath it should be deep enough for
some refreezing and sleet, generally along the I-94 corridor. This
will cut back on snowfall amounts. In addition, surface temps are
forecast to hoover slightly above freezing, so this too will cut
down on snow ratios, and thus snowfall amounts. If temperatures are
a bit cooler, then one can expect the higher snowfall amounts to
shift southward.

With that caveat in mind, the reasoning behind lowering snow amounts
across the Twin Cities and Eau Claire region are as follows.
Forecast soundings off the RAP/HRRR show a warm layer around the
750mb level, with elevated instability aloft. These types of set ups
tend to favor a more cellular look to the precipitation, with
embedded graupel/sleet. (For what it`s worth, the reflectivity
output of the HiRes models support this as well.) Trended toward
that solution, so have lower snowfall amounts. For example, the
30.00Z GFS has 4 to 5 inches of snow from this afternoon and evening
through 05Z Sunday for both the Twin Cities and Eau Claire WI.
Meanwhile the RAP/HRRR have only 1 to 2 inches. This discrepancy is
less evident at St Cloud, where the GFS has again 4 to 5 inches,
while the RAP/HRRR come in with around 3 inches. Lastly, all 3
models are in very good agreement a bit farther north in Little
Falls MN. Assuming these higher resolution, more current models have
a better depiction of the atmosphere, one would lean more heavily on
them as the event nears, and for that reason have less overall
snowfall along and east-to-west line through the Twin Cities, but
similar amounts to the previous forecast along the northern tier of
counties.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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MPX nowcast:

 

Forecast soundings show the profile hugging the 0C

line from the surface to 800 mb in this area. Given the very

strong forcing in that layer, there will likely be dynamical

cooling and more snow will result than what the models are

projecting. This is an extremely sensitive process, however, and

could result in an impossible-to-predict snowfall gradient. 18Z

GFS snowfall accumulation forecast using the Kuchera method

illustrates this nicely. South metro is shown as getting 5-6

inches with the north metro in the 10-15 inch rang

Being later in the game- I think these totals are too high. Further N is where you wanna be.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Not sure it means much at this point, but the GFS now drops a 14” bomb on MSP.

Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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At this time it is cloudy and 34° here at my house. And the wind is picking up. One thing for sure it looks like a cold rain for later today and will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures. My guess at this time is a very cold rain here with more ice just to the north but we shall see.

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Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

These iffy thermal situations seem to rarely work out favorably. We’ll see what happens with this. Gonna be some very different snow totals within a short distance. Good luck with this one!

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Thx for a good laugh this morning when I read this. Still in a Watch here due to the iffy warm layer concerns. APX hitting the mix hard for all their CWA, but especially here. Have to remember this is still on the fringe of normal winter even up here. HRRR map you posted actually looks promising here lol so going with nowcast surprises likely. Stuck using phone so not able to watch this as close as I could otherwise.

We will have to keep a close eye on the temperatures today in tonight. At this time I have a temperature of 34 and the wind is picking up a little. One thing I would point out is that there is a Winter Storm Watch out for the thumb but Lake Huron is still warm so that may not help the temps with a NE wind,  As far as I can see there has never been a ice storm in Michigan in November. And if the winds do pick up to 40 MPH with any ice that will be a big problem. My guess is that any ice will be north of GR.

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NAM up to over 8 inches of snow here and trending farther south each run

12z NAM not only further S, but stalls in S LM delivering the perfect pivot for the Mitt! Geez be right for once lol.

 

namconus_asnow_ncus_16.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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At WMIjim

 

Yeah, November is not ice storm season traditionally. Having said that, this has been anything but a "typical" start to winter. So who really knows??

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like we benefit from night time passage of th SLP too. NAM pops us above freezing very briefly here in Traverse then stays solidly below.

 

HRDPS is very similar and brings 12+ around here. Most storms have gotten more robust as they hit The Lakes. Will this one continue that trend, or break it??

 

hrdps_asnow_ncus_48.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Icon barely has 3-4 inches of snow in MSP

Yep. ICON super stingy with snow everywhere! Even GFS now has much more for the Mitt. I do see a growing consensus with taking the SLP to S LM and stalling it there as the snow shield swings around thru NMI. This would go a long ways to mitigate the WTOD and make this much less of a mixy mess and much more a legit snowstorm. Euro with a perfect SLP pivot and the 850s look great too:

 

ecmwf_T850_ncus_3.png

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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This is not exactly how I expected this storm to look. Some weird banding going on with occasional bursts of precip. Can tell I'm right on the thermal boundary; sleet and snow mixing whenever there is precip. Never seen it like that before.

Remind me again how far north of the metro you live? 20-30 miles or so?

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Welp. Despite what I thought were positive SR Model trends the NWS offices have decided to go the other direction and issued the WWA's

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Is it just me or does it look like the GFS from several days ago wasn't that far off with the higher storm totals further north, dry slot, etc? I wasn't paying a lot of attention to this one since I was never in the game, but I remember seeing everyone saying how far north it was compared to the other models.

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I'm not savvy at deciphering skew-T graphics, but it seems that their snow maps should align with any warm layers being depicted. With most models showing more snow than the current headlines, it's an interesting battle setting up across this region.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Some 12z maps:

 

GEM

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (1).png

 

GFS

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (2).png

 

Euro

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (3).png

 

NAM

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (4).png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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More..

 

RGEMsn10_acc.us_mw (5).png

 

GEFS

 

snod.conus.png

 

HRRR

 

sn10_acc.us_mw (6).png

 

RAP

 

sn10_acc.conus (1).png

 

RAP is only thru 9 am but still looks pretty good with snow well south over WMI

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Looks like we may avoid the dry slot. 20z HRRR showing this. Current radar trends show its gonna be close. Moderate frozen precip now. The big snow totals won’t verify but we should see some good snow tonight.

How are winds?

 

For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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How are winds?

For here in Traverse, the 6 models that cover the full duration of the storm range from 6.7" (HRRR) to 9.3" (NAM) SLR. Meanwhile, the WWA calling for 2-7". They must be figuring on 8:1 pixie flakes and a robust warm layer (which I think many models are backing off from). They could be right, but model maps were very accurate at this range for Vet's Day so Idk why they wouldn't be now?

Winds howl at times and then die down to almost nothing. When it flips to snow it’s like cement. Decent flakes but very wet. Downgraded to an advisory here. We should see a few inches tonight before we turn the page to December. Short term models appear to have had the thermals pinned down pretty well. Good luck!
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NOAA:

 

A wintry mix is possible overnight, before transitioning to rain by morning.

Some minor accumulation of ice will be possible, mainly north

of M-59.

UGH! I hate ice!

Think there will be that much??

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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