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11/28 - 12/1 Powerful Winter Storm


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True Blizzard in Duluth-

 

METAR: KDLH 302355Z 08027G38KT 1/4SM R09/3000V3500FT +SN BLSN VV005 M02/M03 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 07047/2326 SLP072 SNINCR 1/14 P0005 60035 T10171028 11011 21017 56021 $

 

peak wind of 54mph. 14" of snow on the ground with at least another 1' to come. impressive. even for Duluth standards.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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As the storm wraps up here, the sun emerges.

It looks like a blizzard up here in Egg Harbor, WI.

Acquaintance of mine took  following pic before his wife tackled the driveway- (in Duluth).     Location: 3 NE HERMANTOWN, MN ( official Duluth total) Amount: 21.7 Inches Report Time: 12:00 pm CST - 1

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Just drove back 20 miles from the in-laws Thanksgiving. Drove through heavy snow squalls the entire way, it’s now puking snow here in town. I’ve already picked up about an inch of snow, it’s very possible I get a sneaky couple of inches out of this narrow band.

 

Edit: way over shot estimate. I just measured a little over and inch and now just blowing snow. Pretty cool seeing everything pasted in wet snow though, including the x mas lights!

24C53EDB-3677-4BCD-A886-B09BF672C51D.png

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So, APX's pm update actually talks about the same good trends I commented on wrt the morning model suite. Mentions diminishing issues with the warm nose/dry slotting concerns. But the trigger pulling on a WWA was almost like GRR had been making the call on headlines. Like it was a done deal already decided yesterday.

 

APX:

 

Details: Well developed deformation/trowal will be pivoting slowly

north across northern Michigan Sunday as upper level low and surface

response slide across the lower Lakes. Snow, at times heavy, will

accompany this forcing through the day. Any overnight warm nose

should rapidly collapse, leaving potential dry-slot issues to

generate any freezing drizzle/rain concerns. Latest guidance trends

are far less aggressive pivoting this dry-slot north, perhaps only

reaching our far southern border. Other issue will be persistent dry

northeast flow off the Plateau region of Ontario into eastern upper

Michigan. Expect a sharp gradient to accumulating snow to reside

across that area (some guidance never even gets snow north of M-28).

Definitely a tough call up there, unfortunately likely waiting on

real-time trends to decipher exact snow amounts. To further

complicate this mess, low level thermal environment is cold enough

to generate Lake Huron enhancement into northeast lower Michigan.

All told, looking at several more inches of accumulation, especially

north of M-72, with the highest totals (in excess of half a foot)

along and north of M-32 up through the Straits. In all likelihood,

amount of Lake Huron help likely being underdone in available

guidance, and could easily see parts of northeast lower receive

several more inches on top of the widespread system snow. Gusty east

and northeast winds will only exacerbate the already hazardous

driving conditions, producing areas of blowing and drifting snow.

Definitely avoid driving if at all possible Sunday.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Jaster...anything reaching the ground up there in TC yet?

Just got back from dinner. While we were there for 90 mins a bit of rain fell, and half froze on the car. That's it so far down here in the valley.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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^- the track of the low was odd and never really favored areas outside the Dakotas and N MN and N WI. It's strength also really wrapped in some 700-850mb warm air. I'am excited for some wrap around 1" amounts !!!

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Just got back from downtown Minneapolis. Roads are a slushy icy mess. Temp still sitting at 32F. Precip has been all snow since about 5pm. Way underperformed on snow totals so far. The warm layer was too strong during the day. We should see snow overnight but ratios are so low and with immediate compaction it’ll be impossible to measure in the morning.

 

I would definitely say this thing underperformed. I would also say what the GFS showed a few days ago was the most accurate. Unfortunately it caved to the other models and ended up busting. Funny how weather works.

 

This storm is a reminder that you win some, but you lose most when it comes to weather.

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Just got back from downtown Minneapolis. Roads are a slushy icy mess. Temp still sitting at 32F. Precip has been all snow since about 5pm. Way underperformed on snow totals so far. The warm layer was too strong during the day. We should see snow overnight but ratios are so low and with immediate compaction it’ll be impossible to measure in the morning.

I would definitely say this thing underperformed. I would also say what the GFS showed a few days ago was the most accurate. Unfortunately it caved to the other models and ended up busting. Funny how weather works.

This storm is a reminder that you win some, but you lose most when it comes to weather.

Might get another 1/2” by morning by the looks of the radar if we are lucky. I can’t complain. It’s nice to have snow on the ground this early in the season.
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Last four hours - 8" of new snow at DLH - 4 consecutive hours of 2" hour rates.26" on the ground. Remarkable. Will be interesting how much a buddy of mine will report 7NW of Two Harbors.

METAR: KDLH 010755Z 08023G38KT 1/2SM R09/4000V4500FT SN BLSN VV006 M02/M03 A2963 RMK AO2 PK WND 07038/0755 SLP052 SNINCR 2/26 P0008 T10171028 $

14.5" officially for DLH for 11/30. Probably easily make 20" for total storm. Hills N and E of town may flirt with 30"

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Last 5 hours- 10" of new snow. 28" on the ground.

 

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]

METAR: KDLH 010855Z 07018G30KT 1/2SM R09/4000V5500FT SN BLSN VV006 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 07037/0759 SLP052 SNINCR 2/28 P0007 60021 T10171028 56007 $

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Nice band rotating through C.IA at the moment. It's not like Duluth - but it's 1-2" of snow that was not forecasted. Already 1/2" to 3/4" and even roads getting greasy. 32.5.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Last 5 hours- 10" of new snow. 28" on the ground.

 

METAR: KDLH [Duluth Intl Arpt]

METAR: KDLH 010855Z 07018G30KT 1/2SM R09/4000V5500FT SN BLSN VV006 M02/M03 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 07037/0759 SLP052 SNINCR 2/28 P0007 60021 T10171028 56007 $

I wasn't lying when I said what I would do to be in Duluth for this storm.  It's producing each and every way it can for that part of MN.  It's really extraordinary to see such heavy snowfall rates continuing for so many hours.  Incredible storm for them folks!

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There was a very rare occurrence on Nov 29th in the AZ valley as 3 tornado's hit the area...it's not often you get a tornado in the valley, let alone this late in the year...and not just 1, but 3!

 

https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/phoenix-weather/2019/11/29/nws-confirms-3-tornadoes-touched-down-phoenix-area-friday-morning/4336637002/

 

 

The ski resort in Flagstaff, AZ reported 54" of snow from this storm...

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You wrote off Winter till late December...well, that didn't last long...welcome back~!

I think P-rates here fooled all the models. We got basically all snow. I measured 5.5” of hard compacted snow. we had to be close to 2” per hour.

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Might get another 1/2” by morning by the looks of the radar if we are lucky. I can’t complain. It’s nice to have snow on the ground this early in the season.

Looking out the window I would say we got that 1/2” and a bit more. Snowing now and another 1-3” in the point today. This storm didn’t exactly pan out, but like you said.... we have quite a bit of snow on the ground and it looks and feels like winter. Can’t complain at all. We finished November above normal on snowfall too. Good start to winter.

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Looks like my west side Peeps got the snow surprise I thought SEMI was in line for. You know you're in a favored place when things break your way. Overnight timing ftw! Can't remember when I've seen a surface map quite like this morning's??

 

1306z.jpg

 

At SPS - Sorry you got hosed by models and daytime heating to your south.

 

Just got up at 8 am. The bedroom has an east facing window and I could hear pingers overnight. Looking at hourly obs -SN began at 4, and +SN as of 8 am. Looks like 1.5 or 2" by eyeball. Kudos to APX for upgrading this tier of counties to a Warning!! Down in town here it looks like a postcard with snow on every branch!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I think P-rates here fooled all the models. We got basically all snow. I measured 5.5” of hard compacted snow. we had to be close to 2” per hour.

Congrats! (Fooled all the models, and some highly skilled Mets apparently. What snow amts were they calling for?)

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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My rainfall total so far from this storm was only 0.45” bringing November monthly liquid precipitation total to 1.85”. November average temperature wasn’t as cold as November of last year. I’ve seen many wetter Novembers, especially in 1992 with a record of 8.65”! Also 6”> in a few other Novembers.

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1/2” of slop. Was supposed to be mostly rain.

What I thought. You know my opinion of our NWS office. I find it lazy & lame of them when they "final answer" every event 2-3 days out. Not even allowing for further trends inside that window. Nice to see you and others get a nice gift via their bust! Perhaps my expectations are just too high, lol.

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Really hoping those bands in NW WI keep their intensity as they rotate in. We might rake this afternoon.

Hoping it happens for ya buddy! Just heard a blower fired up here!

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I picked up 0.45" of rain from this system.

 

Update:  0.46" after the evening snow band.  I recorded 0.1" of snow as well.

season snowfall: 6.8"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Acquaintance of mine took  following pic before his wife tackled the driveway- (in Duluth).

 

 

Location: 3 NE HERMANTOWN, MN ( official Duluth total)
Amount: 21.7 Inches
Report Time: 12:00 pm CST - 12/1/2019
Remarks: THIS IS THE 9TH HIGHEST 2 DAY SNOW TOTAL FOR DULUTH.

 

 

LINDENTREE-011219-174205.JPG

 

Screenshot_2019-12-01 https www weather gov.png

 

my buddy 7 NW of Two Harbors 20.8"

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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LOL! GRR maintains their moniker "home of the 8-10" WWA"

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
449 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0100 PM SNOW WALHALLA 43.95N 86.11W
12/01/2019 E10.0 INCH MASON MI PUBLIC

TWO REPORTS FROM SOUTHEAST MASON COUNTY OF 8
TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW
. POWER OUTAGES
REPORTED.

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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:o  Looks like portions of the Straights region have gotten clocked (aka Duluth'd) with this system!

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
938 PM EST SUN DEC 1 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 PM HEAVY SNOW GOULD CITY 46.10N 85.70W
12/01/2019 M28.0 INCH MACKINAC MI PUBLIC

24 HR TOTAL.

 

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 1.5"  Largest Storm: 1" (11/22)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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