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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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December has always been my favorite month for winter weather.  We've reached the 10 year anniversary of the infamous December of 2009. This is still the ultimate stretch of winter weather in my lifetime (born in 1993). I remember the incredible Christmas blizzard with drifts up to my waist in the street! We were buried through mid January. I attached the snowfall total map in Central Nebraska to show Gabel was the big winner with almost 16 inches near Shelby! This was truly a land hurricane. An absolutely incredible cyclone. A true display of mother nature's power. Storms like this are why i have such a deep love for weather.

 

What will 10 years later hold? Can't lie, I've been extra giddy thinking about that year and wondering if "this is the year" to match it. Probably not, but it's nice to dream and this early snowstorm didn't hurt ;) What are your memories of that heavenly month? Think of this as a tribute thread to the snow gods. Maybe they'll repay us kindly LOL. Feel free to discuss the similarities and differences in the overall pattern and atmosphere between then and now. That year was known for it's record blocking with extreme negative AO and NAO. Not really sure what to expect this year as trends look positive on both with pretty mild and quiet weather through the first week. What happens after?  DISCUSS!

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/gid/blizzard_recap

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The biggie here in C.IA in DEC 09' was 8th to 9th when a majority of the 17.7" fell from 6th-9th. Been in IA since DEC 98' and it  was - IMO - the only true blizzard that has gotten into the burbs of DSM and even Downtown DSM. I worked the overnight shift and coming home the 9th was unlike anything I've ever experinced (here in IA,- including my time in MN , where the size of the Twin Cities really dampens true Blizzards) Main roads near the airport were one lane and when the vis dropped you just hoped like hell another car wasn't coming. My house looked like a someone sand blasted it with snow. Stores shelves were actually getting bare (unlike the craze that drives most to get bread and milk for cookie cutter storms- this was the real deal) as semis couldn't make deliveries for 3-4 days. 

 

It was a DEC I will never forget. 29" or so of snow for the month. And I'am with Clint1993- give me a cold/snowy DEC as it can back build the winter - or at least the chance of it- it's also my fav winter month.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Great opener Clintbeed!  It's always nice to hear some epic storm stories from the past that give you a jolt of excitement and something to look forward to.  I, to, enjoy December as my favorite month of met Winter, esp if its filled with snow and cold.  The past few Decembers haven't had that "feel" of a magical Christmas holiday season.  There were a couple years ('17 & '18) that had some wintry weather but it didn't last.  Dec '13 was probably one of the better years around here in recent memory, of course, if you go back to '09 that year shines bright as does '10 the farther east you were that had a consistent snow cover throughout the month.  We had a string of good to great Decembers in the late 2000's.

 

Odds are in favor that this December will be back loaded and that is something I'm counting on to see this month.  I'm fully expecting an active/cold mid & late month with an increased possibility of severe winter conditions.  IMO, it's more than likely, many of us will enjoy a holiday season with snow OTG for long periods.  

 

Since yesterday, interestingly, right after my post in the Nov thread, the 12z GEFS/OP came in and they showed the high lat blocking blowing up around the 10th.  In recent runs, the models are starting to see the cold coming back and I'm thrilled to see this evolution in the modeling.  Not to mention, but today's AO forecast is tanking right on schedule!

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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December has always been my favorite month for winter weather.  We've reached the 10 year anniversary of the infamous December of 2009. This is still the ultimate stretch of winter weather in my lifetime (born in 1993). I remember the incredible Christmas blizzard with drifts up to my waist in the street! We were buried through mid January. I attached the snowfall total map in Central Nebraska to show Gabel was the big winner with almost 16 inches near Shelby! This was truly a land hurricane. An absolutely incredible cyclone. A true display of mother nature's power. Storms like this are why i have such a deep love for weather.

 

What will 10 years later hold? Can't lie, I've been extra giddy thinking about that year and wondering if "this is the year" to match it. Probably not, but it's nice to dream and this early snowstorm didn't hurt ;) What are your memories of that heavenly month? Think of this as a tribute thread to the snow gods. Maybe they'll repay us kindly LOL. Feel free to discuss the similarities and differences in the overall pattern and atmosphere between then and now. That year was known for it's record blocking with extreme negative AO and NAO. Not really sure what to expect this year as trends look positive on both with pretty mild and quiet weather through the first week. What happens after?  DISCUSS!

 

 

https://www.weather.gov/gid/blizzard_recap

Nice intro Clint!! You nailed it, that december was one I will NEVER forget. With the x-mas blizzard and the blizzard a couple weeks before to start december that goes down as the wildest I have ever been apart of. We went into new years that year with the greatest snow depth I will probably ever experience. We had a two foot snow depth with drifts that didn't melt until may! The other december that I was a part of was known for the cold but we also had 3 storms in December; that year was my junior year in high school 2000. Then the coldest snowiest december ever was the year I was born 1983. I swear to this day that's the reason I have a strong passion for winter! The high temp on the day I was born was -10 and we got a foot of snow. We had 8 consecutive days below zero. Hoping for our own unique December but I go into the month with just over 8" of snow for the year! Bring it on!

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Wow guys! Awesome thread kick-off to MET winter with the historical angle and rememberings. Ofc, that '09 Christmas storm will remain a huge disappointment to me personally and locally. That SLP lined up "in the slot" to come NE towards the lower lakes only to have it take a hard left was "Grinchy" for mby. At least now, all these years later, I'm able to participate with some peeps who were on the receiving end of a massive holiday gift and feel the "vibe of awe" from your posts. Great stuff! I did get a nice hit with the 8-9th bliz via LES as that storm occluded over my way. That was actually a sweet surprise. I wasn't tuned into any forecasts once I saw that the track would be NW of here. Just figured it'd be another early season "miss" per climo. WRONG! When that occluded, it was in just the right location and still strong enough to pound the 94 corridor with our own mini-bliz. Kzoo hit 14", Battle Creek 12", and here in Marshall we pushed 9-10". A true surprise! Would love something like that later this month. Having seen measurable snow for Halloween, Vet's Day, and now at TGD weekend, I'm hoping to set a new record number of holidays seeing/having snow! Let's keep this snow train rolling, and like Tom said "run the table" with no dud months in between. Got my holiday lights fired-up this evening outside and me and my "drinking deer" are thirsty for snow!  :lol:

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The GEFS are growing stronger with the idea of a Cross Polar Flow pattern to take hold post 10th...Winter is coming back...

 

Did you see my question posted in the other thread (Autumn/Winter)? Was hoping for your thoughts amigo. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lets see how December goes for SEMI. Let the fun begin.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As of now, the first 10-15 days look to go to waste. One rain chance on the 10th w temps in the 40s. No cold air to be found imby. Hope it changes.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Terry Swails is not happy with what the MJO, AO and EPO forecast for Dec.

 

WARM! He’s pretty good at seeing this from what I can tell over the years of reading his blog. He’s hoping for a change in the data. Latest GFS and EURO support his claims for the first 2 weeks of Dec.

 

I know nobody here wants to see a repeat of last years Dec. where pretty much a blow torch took hold of the lower 48

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Terry Swails is not happy with what the MJO, AO and EPO forecast for Dec.

 

WARM! He’s pretty good at seeing this from what I can tell over the years of reading his blog. He’s hoping for a change in the data. Latest GFS and EURO support his claims for the first 2 weeks of Dec.

 

I know nobody here wants to see a repeat of last years Dec. where pretty much a blow torch took hold of the lower 48

Yep, that was a frustrated December. Total snowfall was under an inch for myby. Crazy! This December aint looking all that good either, at least the first half. We will see how the other half goes.

 

That is why I don't like November snows, especially the early part of the month. Late November is ok, especially after Thanksgiving holiday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another December to forget for SMI. Winter will come in February and last til May. Rinse repeat. This pattern sucks.

Shit.gif.358b458605f680a0e6e0d99f5823545

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The GEFS are growing stronger with the idea of a Cross Polar Flow pattern to take hold post 10th...Winter is coming back...

Tom, after spending the morning looking back at the month of Oct I still believe we are in a 47-49 day cycle.  Which would indicate that we would have a central plains storm around the 8-10th followed up by the gulf storm that moved up the Ohio Valley several days after.  Yesterdays GFS had a storm on the 9th in the middle of the country.  I just wanted to bounce this off of you and see if it lined up with your thoughts.

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In today's Bill Steffen’s blog (A Grand Rapids TV meteorologist) he states that about 40% of the US had snow on the ground as of Friday. He says that this is the most snow of the ground (in area coverage) at the end of November in the last 17 years. With just under 36% in 2015 is in 2nd place. Now here comes the issue with anyone who thinks that just by having a large area of snow cover will lead to a cold and snowy winter some sad news. December 2015 was the warmest December on record here at Grand Rapids and that December there was only 2.5” of snow fall for the 4th lowest December total at GR. And the total snow fall for that winter here at Grand Rapids was just 61.1” so much for snow on the ground in late November always leading to a cold and snowy winter season.

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Tom, after spending the morning looking back at the month of Oct I still believe we are in a 47-49 day cycle. Which would indicate that we would have a central plains storm around the 8-10th followed up by the gulf storm that moved up the Ohio Valley several days after. Yesterdays GFS had a storm on the 9th in the middle of the country. I just wanted to bounce this off of you and see if it lined up with your thoughts.

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Tom, after spending the morning looking back at the month of Oct I still believe we are in a 47-49 day cycle.  Which would indicate that we would have a central plains storm around the 8-10th followed up by the gulf storm that moved up the Ohio Valley several days after.  Yesterdays GFS had a storm on the 9th in the middle of the country.  I just wanted to bounce this off of you and see if it lined up with your thoughts.

The part of the pattern in October that I'm looking for is the development of the SW ridge.  This was a dominant pattern in October and the reason it was so darn dry.  There are signs that this begins developing around the Day 9-10 period, but then that would suggest the LRC would be over 60+ days which I have never witnessed before.  Gary says the LRC is usually between 40-60 days...is this one of those odd years where its longer???  I'm not quite sure just yet and would like to see if the models are right about this ridge in the SW to develop and stick around for a little while.

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I will also like to mention that there have been very similar storms and tracks over the past 2 months and lets not forget that these systems/patterns could very well be the "harmonic rythyms" in the LRC.  Shorter mini cycles within the larger scale cycle.

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The part of the pattern in October that I'm looking for is the development of the SW ridge.  This was a dominant pattern in October and the reason it was so darn dry.  There are signs that this begins developing around the Day 9-10 period, but then that would suggest the LRC would be over 60+ days which I have never witnessed before.  Gary says the LRC is usually between 40-60 days...is this one of those odd years where its longer???  I'm not quite sure just yet and would like to see if the models are right about this ridge in the SW to develop and stick around for a little while.

Thanks for your insights.  I can only remember 1 year that the cycle length was 60 days.  This would be the longest I can remember.

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My extended for December shows rain towards mid December w 40s for high...yikes!!!  :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It feels like a spring morning in KC. We finally had some good rains last night, the most rain in 55 days. Temps are going to shoot into the mid 60’s today.

 

I always say, if there isn’t snow on the ground it might as well be nice out.

I agree on that. I hate cold and dry.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Another December to forget for SMI. Winter will come in February and last til May. Rinse repeat. This pattern sucks.

Things certainly appear to be heading for a train wreck, that's for sure! Suddenly, the Western trough that wasn't part of this year's outlook is back with a vengeance! Gotta love it!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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With December starting tomorrow here are some top ten December’s at Grand Rapids Michigan for Temperatures and snow fall.

 The average for December is 29.2°

The coldest
1. 17.1° 1989
2. 19.0° 2000
3. 19.0° 1976
4. 19.2° 1983
5. 20.5° 1958
6. 21.1° 1917
7. 21.3° 1963
8. 21.4° 1919
9. 22.3° 1985
10. 22.6° 1946
The warmest Decembers
1. 39.1 2015
2. 36.6 1923
3. 36.2 1982
4. 35.8 1931
5. 35.1 2012
6. 35.1 2006
7. 35.1 1913
8. 35.0 2011
9. 34.4 1918
10. 34.3 1941
Snow the top ten snowiest Decembers. .21.9” is average
1. 59.2” 2000
2. 54.6” 2008
3. 53.9” 2001
4. 51.3” 1951
5. 37.0” 2016
6. 35.5” 2009
7. 34.8” 1983
8. 34.7” 2013
9. 33.7” 1970
10. 32.9” 2017
Least snow fall
1. 1.0” 2014
2. 2.3” 1913
3. 2.3” 1912
4. 2.5” 2015
5. 2.6” 1979
6. 3.2” 2018
7. 3.7” 1971
8. 3.8” 1906
9. 4.2” 1943
10. 4.5” 2011

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Like I’ve said before, any weather pattern usually doesn’t last too long except in the rare instances where it lasts all season or longer. When we had all that cold and snow so early I figured that’s not to good if you want a cold December. But it will likely get cold again. Nature tends to balance things out over time. It’s amazing how yearly average temperatures don’t vary much at all from yr to yr most times. I remember October 2009 was very cool and wet, then November torched I think. Guess I should/could check to make sure, since I kept a daily diary of wx conditions etc for 30 years already, at the end of this year! Where has time gone?

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UGH...repeat of December 2018 coming.........first half looks to be shaping up like that.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Like I’ve said before, any weather pattern usually doesn’t last too long except in the rare instances where it lasts all season or longer. When we had all that cold and snow so early I figured that’s not to good if you want a cold December. But it will likely get cold again. Nature tends to balance things out over time. It’s amazing how yearly average temperatures don’t vary much at all from yr to yr most times. I remember October 2009 was very cool and wet, then November torched I think. Guess I should/could check to make sure, since I kept a daily diary of wx conditions etc for 30 years already, at the end of this year! Where has time gone?

I know..its crazy!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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With December starting tomorrow here are some top ten December’s at Grand Rapids Michigan for Temperatures and snow fall.

The average for December is 29.2°

The coldest

1. 17.1° 1989

2. 19.0° 2000

3. 19.0° 1976

4. 19.2° 1983

5. 20.5° 1958

6. 21.1° 1917

7. 21.3° 1963

8. 21.4° 1919

9. 22.3° 1985

10. 22.6° 1946

The warmest Decembers

1. 39.1 2015

2. 36.6 1923

3. 36.2 1983

4. 35.8 1931

5. 35.1 2012

6. 35.1 2006

7. 35.1 1913

8. 35.0 2011

9. 34.4 1918

10. 34.3 1941

Snow the top ten snowiest Decembers. .21.9” is average

1. 59.2” 2000

2. 54.6” 2008

3. 53.9” 2001

4. 51.3” 1951

5. 37.0” 2016

6. 35.5” 2009

7. 34.8” 1983

8. 34.7” 2013

9. 33.7” 1970

10. 32.9” 2017

Least snow fall

1. 1.0” 2014

2. 2.3” 1913

3. 2.3” 1912

4. 2.5” 2015

5. 2.6” 1979

6. 3.2” 2018

7. 3.7” 1971

8. 3.8” 1906

9. 4.2” 1943

10. 4.5” 2011

On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure if it is related to any sort of cyclical pattern but it is interesting to note a "twin" pair of storms forecast 4 days apart in the Lakes/OHV beginning December 9th (specifically by the 18z GFS). Very much like the twin storms of this week across the north. Pattern change? More long range teasing?

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Not sure if it is related to any sort of cyclical pattern but it is interesting to note a "twin" pair of storms forecast 4 days apart in the Lakes/OHV beginning December 9th (specifically by the 18z GFS). Very much like the twin storms of this week across the north. Pattern change? More long range teasing?

The pair predicted via the BSR!

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Not sure if it is related to any sort of cyclical pattern but it is interesting to note a "twin" pair of storms forecast 4 days apart in the Lakes/OHV beginning December 9th (specifically by the 18z GFS). Very much like the twin storms of this week across the north. Pattern change? More long range teasing?

 

The pair predicted via the BSR!

Equals Rain and temps in the 40s. Hope it changes.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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