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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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Like I’ve said before, any weather pattern usually doesn’t last too long except in the rare instances where it lasts all season or longer. When we had all that cold and snow so early I figured that’s not to good if you want a cold December. But it will likely get cold again. Nature tends to balance things out over time. It’s amazing how yearly average temperatures don’t vary much at all from yr to yr most times. I remember October 2009 was very cool and wet, then November torched I think. Guess I should/could check to make sure, since I kept a daily diary of wx conditions etc for 30 years already, at the end of this year! Where has time gone?

You are completely right, October 2009 was top five coldest for many; November was then top 5 warmest to follow! December 2009 then goes down as a historic month for many on this board.

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On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??

Wow, nice catch. yes I made a mistake on the year for the 3rd warmest December. The mean of 36.2° is correct but the year is 1982 and not 1983.  That is one of the issues of getting old and needing readers to read. Thanks for seeing that.  

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Wow, nice catch. yes I made a mistake on the year for the 3rd warmest December. The mean of 36.2° is correct but the year is 1982 and not 1983.  That is one of the issues of getting old and needing readers to read. Thanks for seeing that.  

 

On a roll with crap Decembers (3 of last 5). Would be crazy if we added a 4th! Also, amazing how Dec 1983 was both coldest and hottest ranked??

I changed it once again thanks.

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Welcome to the official start of met Winter!  It's a very foggy, dreary & soggy morning here and not the winter-like feel you would expect to see this time of year.  While those up north continue to enjoy the benefits of Ol' Man Winter, those of us farther south are taking a break for the time being.  How long will this break last???  Throughout this morning, I've been studying and analyzing the pattern that has set up since early October and the data that has been coming in overnight.  Over the past few days, the models have been rather volatile as I was expecting to see which is common during a Strat Warming that continues today.  I may be stubborn holding onto the idea that the pattern should flip to more sustained cold and storminess by mid month.  Call me crazy or not but I got this real gut feeling we will prob see one of the biggest model busts this seasons in the Week 2-4 period.  It's pretty obvious I'm going against most of the LR models that suggest a torch throughout the month....is this a good idea on my part....or is a big Bust forthcoming???  Time will tell very soon.  I'm sure some of you already have already thrown in the towel for this month...but is that a good idea???

 

 

Let me show you what I'm seeing and why I'm convinced my logic may have some reasoning behind it.  First off, the models have been struggling trying to figure out the pattern in the near term let alone in the longer range.  For example, the 00z Euro has trended decidedly colder later next week and into early the following week across the Upper MW/GL's region as the model is starting to see a couple decent shots of cold.  This is going to be a volatile period over the opening 10 days or so across the northern half of our Sub before I expect to see the Long Term Long Wave Trough re-establish itself across the central CONUS by mid month.

 

After studying the LRC and comparing it with the model runs out into the next 1-2 weeks, I think I'm starting to see some evidence that the cycle length may in fact be centered around 48-49 days.  The powerful storm we are now experiencing is a big clue along with several other examples the models are showing in the extended. 

 

For example, back on Oct 19th -21st, Tropical Storm Nestor formed in the NE GOM and hit NW FL which tracked through GA and the Carolina's then out to sea.  The 00z Euro is seeing this part of the pattern later next week/weekend in the NE GOM.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

 

 

 

Following this part of the pattern, we saw a strong clipper between Oct 14th-16th that tracked across N MN/N WI that ushered in a strong CF along with strong winds.  This time, however, we are lacking the -NAO we saw in mid Oct (see below)...thus, the clipper is weaker and farther N but it is producing a similar outcome, that being a brief cold shot out of Canada.  Hense, the reasoning behind the volatility I'm expecting to see during the opening week or so of December.  Once this part of the pattern of the LRC arrives in late January I fully expect a major arctic outbreak.

 

nao.sprd2.gif

 

 

Those that have snow OTG are going to get chilly.....

 

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

 

Furthermore, the storm on my calendar between (12/5-12/8) is showing up but a day later than my original call.  Nonetheless, this looks to be directly related to the system that tracked through SD/NE back on Oct 19th/20th and also produced a major severe wx outbreak across E OK/NE TX/AR/MO.  All the models are beginning to see this storm in the Day 8-10 range followed by,  which I believe, will be a strong push of arctic air.  Then, this is when things get very interesting and we start seeing deep low's forming across the central/southern Plains heading towards mid month and beyond. 

 

Overall, I think I got this years LRC figured out and I hope I'm right about it bc I would hate to lead anyone down the wrong path.  Another clue I'm seeing that this pattern will be cycling is the development of the SW ridge by 12/9 or so which the GEFS have been suggesting for a number of days now.

 

 

Dec 9th...

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_36.png

 

 

 

When this pattern arrives by 12/13 - 12/15, look out....

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_51.png

 

 

gfs-ens_z500a_us_57.png

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Some exciting stuff on last night Euro runs.  The control has a monster storm showing up on the 13th and some nice cold moving in as well.  Looks like after this first week of tranquil weather to open Dec, winter will come roaring back. 63 or 64 day cycle?

1576389600-75icYDPrG9k.png

1576454400-wH3PU55DhXI.png

 

Wow, it's like the Universe just spoke to the both of us.... ;) ...I literally just finished a long post that took me about 10-20 min to put together and it mirrored what you just showed us.  Ya buddy, I think we are heading in the right direction once we get past Dec 10th.

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Wow, it's like the Universe just spoke to the both of us.... ;) ...I literally just finished a long post that took me about 10-20 min to put together and it mirrored what you just showed us.  Ya buddy, I think we are heading in the right direction once we get past Dec 10th.

LOL! Yesterday I was convinced the cycle length was 48 to 49 days, until the EC came out last night.  When I look at the storm the Control is modeling for the 9th and then the storm it has 5 days later on the 14th, I thought wow there it is.  I am open to the cycle length being 63 or 64 days long, which would be one of the longest I can remember.  Either way things look like winter for at least the second half of the month.

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LOL! Yesterday I was convinced the cycle length was 48 to 49 days, until the EC came out last night.  When I look at the storm the Control is modeling for the 9th and then the storm it has 5 days later on the 14th, I thought wow there it is.  I am open to the cycle length being 63 or 64 days long, which would be one of the longest I can remember.  Either way things look like winter for at least the second half of the month.

It could very well be we were seeing harmonic rhythms within the LRC.  Let's see how this week shakes out and where things line up in the near term and by the storm target dates of 12/13 - 12/15.  Either way, we both had the right idea....interesting developments and thanks for posting the Euro maps. 

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It could very well be we were seeing harmonic rhythms within the LRC.  Let's see how this week shakes out and where things line up in the near term and by the storm target dates of 12/13 - 12/15.  Either way, we both had the right idea....interesting developments and thanks for posting the Euro map. 

No problem bud.  Very exciting and difficult to pin down this year.  Thanks for your analysis and all the hard work you put into all of this, most people don't understand how hard it is to make bold predictions and get them right most of the time.

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No problem bud.  Very exciting and difficult to pin down this year.  Thanks for your analysis and all the hard work you put into all of this, most people don't understand how hard it is to make bold predictions and get them right most of the time.

I think the early SSW event has thrown off the pattern quite a bit this season and as a result it has made it difficult to analyze the LRC.  Last year, the SSW happened much later in January and the year before that it was even later in February I believe.  This season has certainly provided interesting twists and turns.

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At Tom & Clinton

 

Thanks to both you guys for following the LRC predictions and taking a lot of time keeping notes and trying hard to build a roadmap for our winter. It's a major challenge to remain hopeful when so many indicators look contrary. I'm certainly not stoic when it comes to the emotional ups and downs of favorable vs depressing outlooks. As I write it's a virtual snow globe outside my window! I'm really fortunate to start the month off with this white gold and really nice to see storms modeled 5+ days out actually happening, and not vanishing. I think this one has actually trended a bit south if anything, At least for the Lakes. Huge win imho

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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You are completely right, October 2009 was top five coldest for many; November was then top 5 warmest to follow! December 2009 then goes down as a historic month for many on this board.

Yeah December ‘09 went back to cold and very snowy. My records show 20.5” of snow that mo. with over 1’ in a few days time, probably from one storm.

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Clinton/Tom,

 

I appreciate all that you do and by no means am I being a troll. I have just been wanting to get answers for years and I have shown proof how the LRC has not cycled at times.

 

So, all due respect,

 

You guys just this morning are using past storms to try and forecast future storms. I get it. I just want to know in this potential 47-49 day cycle, what storms are you using to compare the massive storms that just hit California. If you remember, there wasn’t a drop a rain in many areas of the SW for 45 days. No storms to compare...

 

If this LRC is accurate, can either of you give me a forecast for the following cities to cover DJF(basically winter)

KC, LA, Portland, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, DC, Boston, and Miami. Cover the whole country...

 

Example:

 

KC: Week of Dec 1st: look for temps to start cool early in the week but warm up to above average by mid week and stay there the rest of the 7 day period. One storm, likely rain will hit Thursday into Friday. No wintry storms this week.

 

I don’t think the above can happen at anything higher then a 30 percent average.

 

Gary Lezak thinks it can be done at a 70-80 percent accurate clip. I have asked him for direct forecasts for years, what do I get, very vague ones that can be twisted into being accurate every time.

 

Now, I believe a pattern can change at anytime. Meaning, we can go from dry to wet, rainy to snowy, etc. The LRC would argue against that most times. The LRC always has a way out, like, there was no blocking, the EPO went positive when this storm arrived and that’s why it was farther north..on and on. Seasonal differences is the big answer every time a storm is totally different then the prior cycle.

 

I want you guys to take all those variables and excuses and make a forecast right now for the above cities I posted. Is that possible? I would say no, but you guys have me convinced that you can.

 

Remember, I believe the LRC is a good forecasting tool, I just don’t think it is above 30-40 percent accurate.

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You're welcome my friend, and I enjoy it.  One thing that is for sure is that these big,deep, and occluding lows (land hurricanes  :)) are a staple of this years pattern.  That can only be good and point to several blizzard setups.  Trust me when I tell you, you are very much in the right spot.

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Wow, nice catch. yes I made a mistake on the year for the 3rd warmest December. The mean of 36.2° is correct but the year is 1982 and not 1983.  That is one of the issues of getting old and needing readers to read. Thanks for seeing that.

 

I wouldn’t even have noticed it either if Jaster hadn’t mentioned it, since I didn’t look very closely.
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Here is a summery of November 2019 in Grand Rapids, Muskegon and Lansing Michigan.

 

A short wrap for November 2019. At Grand Rapids November 2019 had a mean temperature of 34.6° that is a departure of -5.5° and is a tie with last year for the 10th coldest November on record. There was 6.5” of snow fall and that is just under the 30 year average of 6.8” The high for the month was 54 on the 27th and the low was 15 on the 13th .  For Muskegon the mean for the month was 35.9 that is a departure of -4.3° it was the 12th coldest November of record there. The highest for the month was 54 on the 27th and the coldest was 18 on the 13th There was a total of 10.9” of snow fall. 6.0” is average. And to the east Lansing had a mean of 33.5° that is a departure of -6.1° and it was the 16th coldest on record there where the records go way back to 1863. The high for the month was 54 on the 4th and the low was 8 on the 12th and 13th they had 6.0” of snow and that is more then the average of 3.4”

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Clinton/Tom,

 

I appreciate all that you do and by no means am I being a troll. I have just been wanting to get answers for years and I have shown proof how the LRC has not cycled at times.

 

So, all due respect,

 

You guys just this morning are using past storms to try and forecast future storms. I get it. I just want to know in this potential 47-49 day cycle, what storms are you using to compare the massive storms that just hit California. If you remember, there wasn’t a drop a rain in many areas of the SW for 45 days. No storms to compare...

 

If this LRC is accurate, can either of you give me a forecast for the following cities to cover DJF(basically winter)

KC, LA, Portland, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, DC, Boston, and Miami. Cover the whole country...

 

Example:

 

KC: Week of Dec 1st: look for temps to start cool early in the week but warm up to above average by mid week and stay there the rest of the 7 day period. One storm, likely rain will hit Thursday into Friday. No wintry storms this week.

 

I don’t think the above can happen at anything higher then a 30 percent average.

 

Gary Lezak thinks it can be done at a 70-80 percent accurate clip. I have asked him for direct forecasts for years, what do I get, very vague ones that can be twisted into being accurate every time.

 

Now, I believe a pattern can change at anytime. Meaning, we can go from dry to wet, rainy to snowy, etc. The LRC would argue against that most times. The LRC always has a way out, like, there was no blocking, the EPO went positive when this storm arrived and that’s why it was farther north..on and on. Seasonal differences is the big answer every time a storm is totally different then the prior cycle.

 

I want you guys to take all those variables and excuses and make a forecast right now for the above cities I posted. Is that possible? I would say no, but you guys have me convinced that you can.

 

Remember, I believe the LRC is a good forecasting tool, I just don’t think it is above 30-40 percent accurate.

I don't wanna speak for Tom, but what I look for are surface features and this year for them to line up with the storm we had Oct 10th-13th.  Gary believes that the LRC dictates the teleconections, I believe that they are more wild cards, but with some predictability.  Tom uses other long range tools like the BSR and others along with the LRC that have proven many times to be right,  I am not good enough to forecast for the entire country, but I  am trying to build a map for our forum.  I don't have the time to forecast a whole winter for all those cities that you listed, but when I am convinced that we have started cycle 2 I will lay out some dates for storms and will try to make a prediction for which areas in our forum will be affected by each.

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Clinton/Tom,

 

I appreciate all that you do and by no means am I being a troll. I have just been wanting to get answers for years and I have shown proof how the LRC has not cycled at times.

 

So, all due respect,

 

You guys just this morning are using past storms to try and forecast future storms. I get it. I just want to know in this potential 47-49 day cycle, what storms are you using to compare the massive storms that just hit California. If you remember, there wasn’t a drop a rain in many areas of the SW for 45 days. No storms to compare...

 

If this LRC is accurate, can either of you give me a forecast for the following cities to cover DJF(basically winter)

KC, LA, Portland, Minneapolis, St. Louis, Denver, Dallas, Cleveland, DC, Boston, and Miami. Cover the whole country...

 

Example:

 

KC: Week of Dec 1st: look for temps to start cool early in the week but warm up to above average by mid week and stay there the rest of the 7 day period. One storm, likely rain will hit Thursday into Friday. No wintry storms this week.

 

I don’t think the above can happen at anything higher then a 30 percent average.

 

Gary Lezak thinks it can be done at a 70-80 percent accurate clip. I have asked him for direct forecasts for years, what do I get, very vague ones that can be twisted into being accurate every time.

 

Now, I believe a pattern can change at anytime. Meaning, we can go from dry to wet, rainy to snowy, etc. The LRC would argue against that most times. The LRC always has a way out, like, there was no blocking, the EPO went positive when this storm arrived and that’s why it was farther north..on and on. Seasonal differences is the big answer every time a storm is totally different then the prior cycle.

 

I want you guys to take all those variables and excuses and make a forecast right now for the above cities I posted. Is that possible? I would say no, but you guys have me convinced that you can.

 

Remember, I believe the LRC is a good forecasting tool, I just don’t think it is above 30-40 percent accurate.

 

If you wanted me to give you a forecast for all the cities you mentioned above it would require me hours upon hours of studying/analyzing which I do not have.  However, if you were to pay me $$$ that would be a different story!  ;) I can understand your frustration or rather, disbelief that this current storm is part of the cycling pattern.  Believe me, I was going back and forth on this idea over the last week but today I "saw" the cycle length and the repeating pattern in the modeling.  Maybe I'm wrong, I could very well be until we hear from Gary and his crew what they have to say. 

 

Nevertheless, I typically don't like predicting out more than 30-45 days bc so much can change with regards to Blocking/Teleconnections.  For instance, why did this powerful storm hit the Cali/4 corners region and not in early Oct?  I think that had a lot to do with the EPO tanking during this LRC cycle.  Why do I believe this storm will continue to target CA and the SW in future LRC cycles #2 - #4???  Well, as far as that goes, you have to use your best judgement and try to provide your best guess as to why you would predict a -EPO during that time frame during the heart of winter and early Spring.  Those very warm waters in the NE PAC argue a -EPO being more persistent during winter than mid Autumn (which is when this part of the pattern had the storm go north of CA). See map below... Seasonal strengthening of the jet has a lot to do with it as well.

 

 

sfcplot_sm_20191009.gif

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I don't wanna speak for Tom, but what I look for are surface features and this year for them to line up with the storm we had Oct 10th-13th.  Gary believes that the LRC dictates the teleconections, I believe that they are more wild cards, but with some predictability.  Tom uses other long range tools like the BSR and others along with the LRC that have proven many times to be right,  I am not good enough to forecast for the entire country, but I  am trying to build a map for our forum.  I don't have the time to forecast a whole winter for all those cities that you listed, but when I am convinced that we have started cycle 2 I will lay out some dates for storms and will try to make a prediction for which areas in our forum will be affected by each.

Regarding the bolded, I have to respectfully disagree with him on that bc the wild card this year has been the early disruption of the PV which I do not believe he has ever mentioned in any blog that I read.  Personally, I believe that is a huge deal, esp this season which has contributed to the spike of the AO/NAO that is currently happening now.  The LRC could not have been useful for this purpose.  I do agree with you that there are more wild cards to consider and one of the main reasons I do not necessarily like to predict out more than 30-45+ days during the Winter season.  

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Clinton/Tom

 

Thanks for your responses. Let’s simplify it, give me a DJF forecast for KC using the LRC....of course when you have time.

 

I just often get the why after the what when talking to Lezak wrt the LRC. I’m not trying to put you in with Lezak, just noting that you guys push his theory and that’s why I question.

 

Clinton...i’m heading out to the game today...time for Mahomes and the boys to get this train rolling. Fully healthy it sounds like for the first time since quarter 1 of the first game. Time to make a charge!

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Attm, rain and cold conditions w temps in the mid 30s. Very raw morning outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Clinton/Tom

 

Thanks for your responses. Let’s simplify it, give me a DJF forecast for KC using the LRC....of course when you have time.

 

I just often get the why after the what when talking to Lezak wrt the LRC. I’m not trying to put you in with Lezak, just noting that you guys push his theory and that’s why I question.

 

Clinton...i’m heading out to the game today...time for Mahomes and the boys to get this train rolling. Fully healthy it sounds like for the first time since quarter 1 of the first game. Time to make a charge!

Time for the Chiefs to lay the hammer down on somebody.  I like to use the LRC, I don't mean to push it on others.  I am very much still learning about it and other tools. Lots of great and smart folks on here to learn and discuss weather with.

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Very sad day for me. Ski hill is closed, the rain took out their base. They had around 12 to 17 inches, too.

 

They are going to try and blow and re-open by Wednesday of this week, but the temps are not very good for blowing snow, and there's no sign of anything remotely decent until december 9th.

 

What a sad season so far. It started with a record early opening, which I missed because I never expected it, and now the hill is closed to start off December because of rain.

 

They need under 28 degrees wet bulb temp to make anything good, and the next 9 days don't look good at all.

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Operational GFS found the cold again mid-month. I'm thinking this one will be the real deal despite the torchy 3-4 week CPC outlook. The 15th or so lines up well with what Tom has been advertising as well as Judah Cohen's blog. 12z CMC looking very similar as well with the 1030+mb high lurking just north of the border ready to pounce. I'm ready!

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North Texas is looking at a week of 50's and 60's, dry, breezy, and partly cloudy.

 

Feels like Spring.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Cloudy w a temp at 35F. A few flurries possible.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like seasonable temps next week w temps in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Quiet, dry week also. Unless, a storm shows up outta nowhere.

 

Next shot of rain comes next weekend w highs warming into the mid 40s. Yes, rain and not snow. :rolleyes:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At Tom & Clinton

 

Thanks to both you guys for following the LRC predictions and taking a lot of time keeping notes and trying hard to build a roadmap for our winter. It's a major challenge to remain hopeful when so many indicators look contrary. I'm certainly not stoic when it comes to the emotional ups and downs of favorable vs depressing outlooks. As I write it's a virtual snow globe outside my window! I'm really fortunate to start the month off with this white gold and really nice to see storms modeled 5+ days out actually happening, and not vanishing. I think this one has actually trended a bit south if anything, At least for the Lakes. Huge win imho

 

Between the blocking HP in ONT and the optimal overnight timing of precip, this ended up being waaay closer than it was looking per forecasts. As a matter of fact they were plowing snow a mere 30 miles north of mby! Driving south I figured we'd run out of the snow 100 miles north, boy was I shocked to see how far south the snowy conditions got.  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like seasonable temps next week w temps in the 30s for highs and 20s for lows. Quiet, dry week also. Unless, a storm shows up outta nowhere.

 

Next shot of rain comes next weekend w highs warming into the mid 40s. Yes, rain and not snow. :rolleyes:

 

You GOT your snow. On Vet's Day. Hope you stuffed your freezer full for the holidays!  :lol:  Fwiw, I'm actually feeling pretty good about SMI's chances during the final 10 days of Dec. Might even start sooner than that, but I'm really pulling for a white holiday period.  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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You GOT your snow. On Vet's Day. Hope you stuffed your freezer full for the holidays!  :lol:  Fwiw, I'm actually feeling pretty good about SMI's chances during the final 10 days of Dec. Might even start sooner than that, but I'm really pulling for a white holiday period.  ;)

Yep, I GOT my Vet's D snowstorm. That was definitely not expected by these idiots on TV. That goes to show you that MA Nature will do what she wants.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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After a busy week last week, I'm looking forward to seeing abundant sunshine throughout the week and tranquil weather.  I need things to dry out a bit and do my final, final clean up after all the wind last week which blew all of my neighbors leaves back onto my yard.  Not to mention, all of the broken branches that snapped off my trees from the wild wind gusts.  We had some ugly and dreary days last week so the sunshine will certainly be welcomed as we closed the books on a very cloudy month of November (33% of possible sunshine).

 

Over the last 24 hours and since my post yesterday morning, I think the wx God's and the models were listening bc suddenly the cold and storm potential showed up.  Looks like our next possible storm to track is starting to show more consistency among the various op/ensembles for the 8th/9th period. 

 

We have seen this set up countless times already this season whereby a lead N stream wave tracks across the North setting up a boundary orientated SW/NE and a stronger southern wave runs up the front. 

 

00z EPS seeing that energy in the "slot" by Sunday...I'd like to see a few more days of runs before getting to excited but this storm fits the LRC so let's see where the models trend. 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

 

 

Boy, the GEFS certainly got rid of those warm anomalies in a hurry!  I'm starting to finally see the best wintry/snowy signal of the season post 10th of this month.  Generally speaking, I'm pleased to see what the models are advertising as they are confirming what I boldly stated the other day.  Winter is coming back for those of us farther south...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

snod.conus.png

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After a busy week last week, I'm looking forward to seeing abundant sunshine throughout the week and tranquil weather.  I need things to dry out a bit and do my final, final clean up after all the wind last week which blew all of my neighbors leaves back onto my yard.  Not to mention, all of the broken branches that snapped off my trees from the wild wind gusts.  We had some ugly and dreary days last week so the sunshine will certainly be welcomed as we closed the books on a very cloudy month of November (33% of possible sunshine).

 

Over the last 24 hours and since my post yesterday morning, I think the wx God's and the models were listening bc suddenly the cold and storm potential showed up.  Looks like our next possible storm to track is starting to show more consistency among the various op/ensembles for the 8th/9th period. 

 

We have seen this set up countless times already this season whereby a lead N stream wave tracks across the North setting up a boundary orientated SW/NE and a stronger southern wave runs up the front. 

 

00z EPS seeing that energy in the "slot" by Sunday...I'd like to see a few more days of runs before getting to excited but this storm fits the LRC so let's see where the models trend. 

 

ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_namer_8.png

 

 

 

Boy, the GEFS certainly got rid of those warm anomalies in a hurry!  I'm starting to finally see the best wintry/snowy signal of the season post 10th of this month.  Generally speaking, I'm pleased to see what the models are advertising as they are confirming what I boldly stated the other day.  Winter is coming back for those of us farther south...

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_6.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_10.png

 

 

 

 

snod.conus.png

No torch in the works for Dec.  The storm on the 15th is still showing up well on the EC, not to mention a nice snow on the 8th-10th still showing up for you guys up north.  Oklahoma wx it's time to wake up!  So here is the EC and Euro mean.

1576540800-tB0PE3ZF6JI.png

1576540800-EbGCgvVtcHg.png

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There are ever-growing signals that severe winter conditions set up by mid month and will have legs.  My goodness, if this comes close to fruition, we will see vicious Arctic air by mid month.  Cross Polar Flow and a signal for a solid -AO in the cards....ya'll ready????

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_27.png

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No torch in the works for Dec.  The storm on the 15th is still showing up well on the EC, not to mention a nice snow on the 8th-10th still showing up for you guys up north.  Oklahoma wx it's time to wake up!  So here is the EC and Euro mean.

1576540800-tB0PE3ZF6JI.png

1576540800-EbGCgvVtcHg.png

If the EPS is showing that much coverage of snow over the next 2 weeks its definitely trending in the right direction.  The EPS has such a warm bias this season out into Week 2 its crazy.  Nice to see the SW/NE orientation suggesting SW Flow which fits the LR ideas.

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