Jump to content

December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

Recommended Posts

Not really a December topic but any records will be reached in December'

 

With the year’s precipitation now at 48.18” Grand Rapids is inching closer to a record for the most total annual precipitation. At this time GR is in 2nd place records have been kept here at Grand Rapids since 1892 at 3 different locations first at a downtown location until 1926, then the old airport 1926 to 1963 and since 1963 at the current airport. Note the old airport was on 32nd between South Division and Kalamazoo SE. The current record precipitation is 48.80” set in 2008.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom, after reading Lezaks blog this morning it does indeed sound like we are in cycle 2 and I think you nailed it at 48 days.  He made a prediction for a major storm in the plains at the end of the year.  You can't make a prediction that far out without knowing the cycle length.  This is the part I found interesting.

 

"So, it has been rather dry in KC in this first LRC Cycle.  Is this trend going to continue. It certainly looks like it, but hang on, near the end of the year we see a feature that will likely produce a major storm and an Arctic outbreak.  The pattern also seems favorable for  block to develop.  We are forecasting a major winter storm in the plains and near KC during the last five days of the year, and with a likely Arctic blast.  Confidence is high. If the pattern does not block up, then this storm would likely go just north of KC. We will be monitoring the pattern closely."

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Des Moines radar will be down for the next two weeks.  Fortunately, it does not appear the radar will be needed.

  • Like 1

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There are ever-growing signals that severe winter conditions set up by mid month and will have legs.  My goodness, if this comes close to fruition, we will see vicious Arctic air by mid month.  Cross Polar Flow and a signal for a solid -AO in the cards....ya'll ready????

 

 

 

gfs-ens_Tz10_nhem_27.png

 

vicious Arctic air

 

Need some snow OTG to make that sound more bearable, lol 

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clinton,

 

You see how Gary is laying the ground work for the LRC to always win. “If” there isn’t blocking, then the storm will miss KC. If there is blocking, then the storm will hit.

 

He did the same thing last Jan. prior to the big snow storm that hit on Jan. 12th. 5 days before the storm the data was not showing a major storm and he started hedging...made a comment that was sure to hit...” the storm due in next week will either be a strong cold front or a major winter storm” obviously the storm was big here in KC and all we heard for months is that he called for it months in advance.

 

Always a way out....strong cold front or major winter storm??? Lol

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom, after reading Lezaks blog this morning it does indeed sound like we are in cycle 2 and I think you nailed it at 48 days.  He made a prediction for a major storm in the plains at the end of the year.  You can't make a prediction that far out without knowing the cycle length.  This is the part I found interesting.

 

"So, it has been rather dry in KC in this first LRC Cycle.  Is this trend going to continue. It certainly looks like it, but hang on, near the end of the year we see a feature that will likely produce a major storm and an Arctic outbreak.  The pattern also seems favorable for  block to develop.  We are forecasting a major winter storm in the plains and near KC during the last five days of the year, and with a likely Arctic blast.  Confidence is high. If the pattern does not block up, then this storm would likely go just north of KC. We will be monitoring the pattern closely."

I was thinking the same thing as I read his blog about 30 min ago.  Sounds like he has a good idea of what the cycle length is this year.  If that's the case, we should have an action packed 2nd half of the month!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Clinton,

 

You see how Gary is laying the ground work for the LRC to always win. “If” there isn’t blocking, then the storm will miss KC. If there is blocking, then the storm will hit.

 

He did the same thing last Jan. prior to the big snow storm that hit on Jan. 12th. 5 days before the storm the data was not showing a major storm and he started hedging...made a comment that was sure to hit...” the storm due in next week will either be a strong cold front or a major winter storm” obviously the storm was big here in KC and all we heard for months is that he called for it months in advance.

 

Always a way out....strong cold front or major winter storm??? Lol

Absolutely that is one thing he is going to have to concede is that the teleconections are more of a wild card than he will admit.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy w temps at 33F. A coating of snow fell this morning here. NO biggie!

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking the same thing as I read his blog about 30 min ago.  Sounds like he has a good idea of what the cycle length is this year.  If that's the case, we should have an action packed 2nd half of the month!

I know I'm excited.  The storm the EC is picking up on around the 15th, that would be related to the gulf system in Oct?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This tranquil weather will give people a chance to put out their Christmas Decor. Great opportunity. Also, hopefully pattern reloads in time for Christmas snow.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This tranquil weather will give people a chance to put out their Christmas Decor. Great opportunity. Also, hopefully pattern reloads in time for Christmas snow.

I've only seen a handful of houses with their holiday lights up.  This weekend was not ideal.  I'm sure many will be putting them up this week/weekend...I will be!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've only seen a handful of houses with their holiday lights up.  This weekend was not ideal.  I'm sure many will be putting them up this week/weekend...I will be!

Yep...although, yesterday afternoon was not that bad. Kinda ok to put up decor. As a matter a fact, I saw a couple of neighbors getting theirs ready.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

78974552_3221973014540238_32912861381735

Well, they are really trying at least. I would have really liked for a good cold snap after the rain, like lows in the 10s. The historically early open has been shut down by rain.

 

I really hope it's a cold and snowy Christmas vacation for everyone. These ski hills in the midwest really need it. Even if they make snow, people don't realize it's open unless it's cold and snowing outside. It's the make it or break it time of year. And when it costs so much to make snow, a successful Christmas and New Years season will give all the season pass holders, like me, lots of freshly blown snow and a lot more effort put into the hill.

 

Alpine Valley had a craft show last Saturday. It feels like whenever they try and do one of these events, the weather is not in their favor.

 

The last couple years have been rough. If we could get a good snow storm sometime after December 15th or so, and it sticks, a lot of people would be very happy.

 

So far this season has been very annoying. I missed the early opening because I was visiting my parents. And because of the early cold, I spent time doing leaves and other stuff before I could really start shredding. And now the hill is closed today. Thankfully they are opening for Wednesday, but I really hope this is not a sign of things to come. We have had too many winters where it warms up, gets wet, rains, and then gets annoying cold the last few years. It's been a horrible cycle and it's been very rough on snowboarders, skiiers, and snowmobiliers in SE Wisconsin. I imagine a lot of other people are in similar situations where they couldn't take advantage of the early cold and snow, and now that they got prepared for Winter it's on a short hiatus for some of us further south.

 

Quality of blown snow really gets a lot better when it's colder. It starts at 28 degrees wet bulb temp, but the closer you get to zero, the more natural the snow ends up. Less ice, smaller flakes, etc. It's never like natural snow, which is good. 12 inches of natural powder will groom out to only a few inches of skiiable stuff. Man made stuff compacts very well and is much more resilient to water and warm temps.

 

AV did good blowing a ton of snow very early. I worry about these other hills that skipped the early November cold and waited to blow. After that cold, there hasn't been any really great times to blow snow. To open, you usually need 48 hours of below 28 degrees, colder the better. We haven't really gotten that. And to be honest, if it weren't for that cold snap, I don't think they could have saved that hill. I know other places like Wilmot are struggling to be open. And looking at the forecast, while Alpine Valley had a record early opening, it looks like the ones that didn't take advantage of it will be having one of their latest openings ever. It's been a tough fall for midwest ski resorts.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Snowstorm happening in NYC. Friends and family members are telling me that strong winds there making it at times near blizzard conditions. Local forecasts are calling for 5-8inches. All models going w 4-8inches for the NY Metro Area.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

78974552_3221973014540238_32912861381735

Well, they are really trying at least. I would have really liked for a good cold snap after the rain, like lows in the 10s. The historically early open has been shut down by rain.

 

I really hope it's a cold and snowy Christmas vacation for everyone. These ski hills in the midwest really need it. Even if they make snow, people don't realize it's open unless it's cold and snowing outside. It's the make it or break it time of year. And when it costs so much to make snow, a successful Christmas and New Years season will give all the season pass holders, like me, lots of freshly blown snow and a lot more effort put into the hill.

 

Alpine Valley had a craft show last Saturday. It feels like whenever they try and do one of these events, the weather is not in their favor.

 

The last couple years have been rough. If we could get a good snow storm sometime after December 15th or so, and it sticks, a lot of people would be very happy.

 

So far this season has been very annoying. I missed the early opening because I was visiting my parents. And because of the early cold, I spent time doing leaves and other stuff before I could really start shredding. And now the hill is closed today. Thankfully they are opening for Wednesday, but I really hope this is not a sign of things to come. We have had too many winters where it warms up, gets wet, rains, and then gets annoying cold the last few years. It's been a horrible cycle and it's been very rough on snowboarders, skiiers, and snowmobiliers in SE Wisconsin. I imagine a lot of other people are in similar situations where they couldn't take advantage of the early cold and snow, and now that they got prepared for Winter it's on a short hiatus for some of us further south.

 

Quality of blown snow really gets a lot better when it's colder. It starts at 28 degrees wet bulb temp, but the closer you get to zero, the more natural the snow ends up. Less ice, smaller flakes, etc. It's never like natural snow, which is good. 12 inches of natural powder will groom out to only a few inches of skiiable stuff. Man made stuff compacts very well and is much more resilient to water and warm temps.

 

AV did good blowing a ton of snow very early. I worry about these other hills that skipped the early November cold and waited to blow. After that cold, there hasn't been any really great times to blow snow. To open, you usually need 48 hours of below 28 degrees, colder the better. We haven't really gotten that. And to be honest, if it weren't for that cold snap, I don't think they could have saved that hill. I know other places like Wilmot are struggling to be open. And looking at the forecast, while Alpine Valley had a record early opening, it looks like the ones that didn't take advantage of it will be having one of their latest openings ever. It's been a tough fall for midwest ski resorts.

 

This x100. These yo-yo patterns are exciting for their potential to "go big", but they certainly haven't been doing that for the Lwr Lakes region. A steady-state cold pattern would do wonders for winter sport activities as you say. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A few flurries flying around puts you in the Christmas Holiday spirit. Temp at 33F.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro showing a nice little system pushing through your neck of the woods a week from tomorrow, lets see if it strengthens.

Indeed. Its only a matter of time until we start adding to our snowfall dept again. Next week gets a lot colder!

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Zzzzzzzz....

 

National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
256 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

...Updated Forecast Discussion...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 247 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2019

Overall, the weather should have limited impacts over the next
week as quiet pattern takes hold over eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa. It is within the realm of possibility that the area
goes a week without precipitation, which would be the longest such
stretch for the forecast area in 2019.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Have to control my laughter at the DFW snow prediction.

Save a flake for me boys!

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

The Des Moines radar will be down for the next two weeks.  Fortunately, it does not appear the radar will be needed.

maybe even 4 weeks...

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=dmx&product=FTM

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some very light snow currently w temp at 32F. No accumulations.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure what "avg" snow coverage is to open December, but I'd say we ain't doin too bad in that dept.

 

nsm_depth_20191202_National.jpg

 

Impressive depths across the UP of Mich:

 

nsm_depth_20191202_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

 

 

 

If this is any indication for what is ahead then regions further south should do well as we turn the corner into real winter. 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 

 

 

 

If this is any indication for what is ahead then regions further south should do well as we turn the corner into real winter. 

 

 

 I have never understood statement like this.  Is there any actual evidence that snow on the ground has any effect on the track of future storms?  It is something I have never seen to actually happen, but it seems to get repeated without question.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like NYorkers are enjoying this little snowstorm this evening..........

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. * WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions should impact the evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Slow down and use caution while traveling. Check local Department of Transportation information services for the latest road conditions. &&

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

 I have never understood statement like this.  Is there any actual evidence that snow on the ground has any effect on the track of future storms?  It is something I have never seen to actually happen, but it seems to get repeated without question.

Not sure. But I think it comes down to overall pressure tendencies and with a building snowpack compared to bare ground the pressure should tend (over the long haul) to be greater over snow than bare ground .Case in point would be IA with the last two storms with sub 992 MB low passing right over DSM- the first one was literally the lowest pressure in the region and  went right over the top and a few days agojust to the NW. Latest GFS has another going over the top next week but many changes between now and than-- and oh yeah- bare ground to a T of snow here now but when the "L" went over or nearby- nothing- so I think their is some evidence for the theory but imo- it does get over used.- but it sure seems that Lows have been riding that snow cover / bare ground line for the last several events. ( this of course wouldn't pass the Clipper test but those are different animals all together)

  • Like 2

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wait a minute the 18z gfs showing a snow storm over Dallas. 23 inches. If that was to happen I'm pretty sure they would be crippled for weeks.

 

Looks like a ton of sleet and freezing rain. Either way, still crippled for weeks.

  • Like 2

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If all goes well, an Arctic Outbreak blasts a lot of us by next week.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wait a minute the 18z gfs showing a snow storm over Dallas. 23 inches. If that was to happen I'm pretty sure they would be crippled for weeks.

Crazy!

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure what "avg" snow coverage is to open December, but I'd say we ain't doin too bad in that dept.

 

nsm_depth_20191202_National.jpg

 

Impressive depths across the UP of Mich:

 

nsm_depth_20191202_Northern_Great_Lakes.jpg

 

 

 

If this is any indication for what is ahead then regions further south should do well as we turn the corner into real winter.

Several 0z Euro ensemble members must have been listening. Quite a shift south with healthy snow depths versus yesterday's 12z guidance.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...