Jump to content

December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

Recommended Posts

The EC and Euro ensembles continue to show a large system around the 14th.  If this is related to the gulf system that happened between Oct 24th-26th, then I would look for more of a eastern trend.  Jaster, Niko, and Michigan folks I bet remember this system well.

1576627200-Pc8R1BpfEgM.png

1576627200-bCQK9DJJgJ0.png

 

1576627200-ZfYl9iBlONA.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Cold times are coming Back"...my goodness, last nights 00z Euro/GFS drop the Arctic Hammer as the "Nanook From the North" makes a visit across the central CONUS.  I hope you guys up north that have a deep snow pack have your wood stocked and on the ready...ya'll gonna freeze up there!  Holy smokes, that's some vicious cold for early December....several days/nights Sub Zero????

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

 

While combing through last nights model runs, as well as the last couple days worth of runs, it has shown to me how powerful of a tool the LRC can be along with other LR forecasting tools I have been accustomed to use in this Forum.  My excitement is starting to build as I'm starting to feel pretty confident in my call that severe winter is in fact knocking on the doorstep and we are about to enter a very active/cold period.  If you thought for a second I was crazy going against the model world which suggested torch, torch, never ending torch....I will say, sometimes it takes a little bit of crazy and bold decisions to prove a point in the end.

 

Last night's 00z EPS has turned significantly colder and "following" the GEFS lead which had been jumping on the idea of cold returning post 10th.  Nature has done it's job and laid down a widespread snow pack up north and for us farther south this is a big deal as cold HP's will seed cold for our future storms that are lined up on the calendar.

 

gfs_nh-sat1_snowd-mslp_1-day.png

 

 

 

Let's talk about the storm that's been showing up later this weekend into early next week.  I think it's going to take a couple more days of runs for the models to hone in on the southern energy as being the stronger piece.  I don't have access yet, but the EPS is starting to show more runs along with the GEFS ensembles.  The 00z GEFS trends are looking better for storm development coming out of the "slot" near the TX Panhandle and tracking near the OHV.

 

If we are to believe the LRC, those of us in the eastern portion of the Sub are in line to benefit from the storm systems as we enter this colder pattern.  It's going to get wet and cold...Who's ready???  I'm ready...let's roll...

 

 

 

gfs-ens_apcpn_us_64.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png

 

 

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EC and Euro ensembles continue to show a large system around the 14th.  If this is related to the gulf system that happened between Oct 24th-26th, then I would look for more of a eastern trend.  Jaster, Niko, and Michigan folks I bet remember this system well.

1576627200-Pc8R1BpfEgM.png

1576627200-bCQK9DJJgJ0.png

 

1576627200-ZfYl9iBlONA.png

 

Nice, I like seeing a lot of those members showing the storm track farther south and widespread.  Some very nice hits showing up.  Fun times ahead!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice, I like seeing a lot of those members showing the storm track farther south and widespread.  Some very nice hits showing up.  Fun times ahead!

I maybe overlooking the storm on the 9th and 10th a little bit, it was a stronger more organized storm in Oct. Will the +AO and NAO mess with it this time?  But I completely agree with you about the cold and strongly favor the eastern half of the sub getting taken to pound town the next 2 weeks.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I maybe overlooking the storm on the 9th and 10th a little bit, it was a stronger more organized storm in Oct. Will the +AO and NAO mess with it this time?  But I completely agree with you about the cold and strongly favor the eastern half of the sub getting taken to pound town the next 2 weeks.

Yes, it is certainly making the pattern more progressive instead of blocking it up. Back in early Oct, we had a -NAO that slowed down the system and with a +NAO during this period it will be a faster flow.  How do the EPS ensembles look for that period?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting stat regarding our nations snow cover....

 

 

 

45.4% of the contiguous US has snow cover with avg. depth of 2.8 " (image on the left). That is some of the most extensive snow cover for the date since NOAA began tracking in 2003. Last year's coverage (left image) at this point was 41.4% with avg. depth of 2.3". #ilwx


EK3PUuiXUAA4LdA.jpg
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting some light snow falling here at this time with a temperature of 32. There is still 2" of snow on the ground here.

 

This past summer I had mentioned several times the lack of thunderstorms we had here in Michigan.  Well that can and was a good thing in 2019 there were two tornado watches that covered part of Michigan…one that just included Berrien and Cass Counties and another for the western third of the UP.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Cloudy w some spotty snow around. Dusting at the most. Nice to see this as this puts you in the Christmas Holiday Spirit. Temp is at 29F.

  • Like 3

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NOAA:

 

The medium range
model suite continue to indicate a long wave pattern change late in
the weekend into early next week, featuring ridge amplification
across the west coast and an amplification of long wave troughing
over the central US. This will place Se Mi within the strengthening
southwest flow and will allow a warming trend Sun into Monday. This
warm spell is likely to be brief as there is indications that the
polar low will sink into northern Ontario by the middle of next
week, driving arctic air into the Great Lakes. This may also set up
a period of active weather along the arctic front, affecting Se Mi
late in the forecast period.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The EC and Euro ensembles continue to show a large system around the 14th. If this is related to the gulf system that happened between Oct 24th-26th, then I would look for more of a eastern trend. Jaster, Niko, and Michigan folks I bet remember this system well.

1576627200-Pc8R1BpfEgM.png

1576627200-bCQK9DJJgJ0.png

 

1576627200-ZfYl9iBlONA.png

Soooo,,, a couple of those may have my attention. Lol.

Euro says "all-in" or gold, no in between yet. Maybe as we get closer. Not counting my snowfall and akes before they fall down here.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Soooo,,, a couple of those may have my attention. Lol.

Euro says "all-in" or gold, no in between yet. Maybe as we get closer. Not counting my snowfall and akes before they fall down here.

Hope the trend keeps going this way.  The artic air coming down over the snow pack up north that Tom showed will help.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

"Cold times are coming Back"...my goodness, last nights 00z Euro/GFS drop the Arctic Hammer as the "Nanook From the North" makes a visit across the central CONUS.  I hope you guys up north that have a deep snow pack have your wood stocked and on the ready...ya'll gonna freeze up there!  Holy smokes, that's some vicious cold for early December....several days/nights Sub Zero????

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

sfct.conus.png

 

 

I'm not too greedy in early and mid December. I'll take a lack of snow. But those are beautiful snow blowing conditions.

 

Looks like good snow up north by my Uncle, hopefully we get to go snowmobiling since his kids are little ****, lol.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm not too greedy in early and mid December. I'll take a lack of snow. But those are beautiful snow blowing conditions.

 

Looks like good snow up north by my Uncle, hopefully we get to go snowmobiling since his kids are little ****, lol.

After reading your post yesterday, I was thinking about you and others on here who enjoy the outdoors during Winter around our region.  This December is going to deliver the "goods".  I wouldn't worry to much about long warm spells for the remainder of this month.  The only worry is if there is a warm cutter but that isn't looking likely at the moment based on what I'm seeing.  Saddle up!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 I have never understood statement like this.  Is there any actual evidence that snow on the ground has any effect on the track of future storms?  It is something I have never seen to actually happen, but it seems to get repeated without question.

 

Grizz had a good response, but I will add one of my own since it was my post you're referring to. 

 

My comment/s come from experience over decades of following winter patterns for the Lwr MW/GL's/OHV and was not regarding exact track/s of future storms. It was based on Climo, seasonal norms, and signs-n-signals of an active pattern vs a lack of action. Just see maps from 2011-12 for the opposite of what I (and Tom later) posted and how they were indicating bad, bad news for snow lovers. When you see a lot more bare ground N and W in S Canada and the upper tier of states - worry! And that's not to say every good winter has to include those regions in deep snow cover, but knowing what we know about the forecast and expected "flavor" of this upcoming winter, the snow cover we see now makes sense and aligns very well with the anticipated progression. Again, this isn't about saying storms will "ride the southern boundary of current snow pack". Some may, and some may not. That's an unproven theory in my book.  But, a lack of good snow cover N and W of my region would be very concerning for the future of our DJFM, just as arid and hot conditions to my S and W in May of 1988 foretold an impending strong heat-wave/drought summer heading my way. Hope that helps.  

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

having a feeling of stuck in the middle...storms north and storms south....need me a clipper train

 

What? You worried about missing out on the 2" his map shows for mby??  :lol:  :lol:

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice, I like seeing a lot of those members showing the storm track farther south and widespread.  Some very nice hits showing up.  Fun times ahead!

 

I be ready for dat!  ;)

 

WPC seems to be "sniffing" it as well

 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got a little ground covering of snow this early morning. On the board for Dec! 

 

Tom, the orientation of the thermal boundary looks picture perfect with several maps you posted today such as this one:
 

20191203 0z_Euro 2m Temps_h204.png

 

 

If this doesn't indicate or induce an OHV tracking SLP, I don't know what will? (has to verify ofc ;) ). Remember when I said I would "see you, and raise you Dec 11-12, 2000"??  ;)

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Getting some light snow falling here at this time with a temperature of 32. There is still 2" of snow on the ground here.

 

This past summer I had mentioned several times the lack of thunderstorms we had here in Michigan.  Well that can and was a good thing in 2019 there were two tornado watches that covered part of Michigan…one that just included Berrien and Cass Counties and another for the western third of the UP.

 

Prolly more in parts of greater GR. My daughter had biz there this morning. Got a txt later saying "Wow there's snow here!".  Guess she was clueless about Sundays' storm and how it narrowly missed us a couple counties south. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since last Thursdays JMA weeklies run, the Euro has slowly trended away from Phase 3 of the MJO....signaling the colder trends in its Week 1-2 period.  I'm sure future runs in the EPS forecast will continue to head lower.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Social media is on fire with "Coldmageddon" talk....it's nice to hear Winter is coming back...

 

With last December, guess you could call it unique, but we had that record cold stretch just 2 Christmas's ago. Peep's memories are quite short - just sayin'

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Prolly more in parts of greater GR. My daughter had biz there this morning. Got a txt later saying "Wow there's snow here!".  Guess she was clueless about Sundays' storm and how it narrowly missed us a couple counties south. 

The snow that fell was a very wet heavy snow so it is a very solid snow on the ground. The large parking lot snow piles make it look like it is even more.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom,

 

12z GFS for KC says most of the cold will stay north and east of here, has most days above average and no big storms. Matter of fact, very dry run.

 

You thinking we get into the action after the 15th or so.

Yes, the GFS op is notorious for overdoing blocking and the models will be erratic run-to-run, esp with a tanking EPO.  Your in a good spot for the storm that I'm expecting between the 12th-14th. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, light snow and temp is at 32F.

 

 

 

Next week is looking COLDDDDDDDD..BRRRRR!!!! Also I am seeing snow chances. Time to start adding some accumulations in the snow dept.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z Euro has the gulf/OV storm.  And there is some blocking showing up!

 

1576216800-0UvK3jRas6Y.png

 

1576238400-aCuwQFZAku8.png

I like what I am seeing.

  • Like 2

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since last Thursdays JMA weeklies run, the Euro has slowly trended away from Phase 3 of the MJO....signaling the colder trends in its Week 1-2 period.  I'm sure future runs in the EPS forecast will continue to head lower.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

JB in his Saturday Summary says that he's watching the Indian Ocean for signals (raging convection) that would indicate a repeat of last December and so far he's not seeing anything like that. Just a fwiw..

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 372

      March 2024 Observations and Discussion

    2. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    3. 5703

      March 2024 Weather in the PNW

    4. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

    5. 638

      Middle East Conflict of 2023

×
×
  • Create New...