December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Andie]

North Texas is warm. 63* in DFW.

Windy. 16-20 mph.

DP 48.

 

(Spring)

[jaster220]

Checking out 12z suite and you can see things trying to improve our storm potential post-15th, so as per usual, models/Peeps were a little too quick to paint the more positive outlook. 

[jaster220]

GFS has the perfect track for Mich folks in reguards to the Gulf low.  Now we just need the cold air to do it's thing, keep your fingers crossed.

 

In my notes, if you look back at how the ULL tracked through N NM/N TX/OK/MO/IL...today's 12z GFS run did almost exactly that!  Pretty incredible to see a model run flash almost an identical result.

 

Really guys, I appreciate the positive posts, I really do. I just can't get suckered again (yet lol). The Euro looses it, the GFS finds it lol. My office says a weak clipper is in store with some moisture in the OHV, whatever that means?? There does seem to be some cold air "lurking" just to the NW of MI depending on which model you read. Guess we'll let the models continue to flash the potential phase until they just can't anymore. As posted above, I do like the way things are looking post-15th time frame. Not sure I get hit, but somebody should..

[Niko]

Nothing real dynamic about my storm but I will certainly take it.  Also looks like a colder trend so far today but we shall see.

That nails your area bud...good luck w that!

[Niko]

Looks like the 12z GFS has that big GOM Low again.

[Niko]

Its a nice, 41F attm w cloudy skies. Not bad for this time of the year, although, it is a bit breezy making the RF at 32F.

[Niko]

As for the EC, Euro now has several inches of snow from Dc - Boston. Looks like Tuesday nite rain switches ova to accumulating snow for them.

[jaster220]

Looks like the 12z GFS has that big GOM Low again.

 

Models are laughable as one looses the bone, another finds it, picks it up and runs with it. Even at that, the snow output from that run is basically nada for SMI. NMI LES belts would do well (again) fwiw. 

[jaster220]

The GFS has several systems moving across the country later in the month that could produce snow.  The details just flop wildly from run to run.

 

12z Euro is weak sauce. Has a couple weak systems that basically flat-line west to east and don't put out much snow at all and pretty narrow stips with holes in between. Nothing goes big or burys anyone outside N UP of Mich snow belts. 

[Niko]

Models are laughable as one looses the bone, another finds it, picks it up and runs with it. Even at that, the snow output from that run is basically nada for SMI. NMI LES belts would do well (again) fwiw. 

You are right, that is what I said to myself as well..........  

[hlcater]

Based on how the models are looking, looks like seasonable chances for a white christmas around here. One thing I guess I like is the fact that cold air looks to be in place either over or very near the area but one thing I dont like is that the storm track isn't really set up favorably for us, leaving us cold and dry through the 15th at least. I am, however, more optimistic for a white christmas this year than I have been the past few decembers, so there is that.

[Stormhunter87]

Plenty of cold air but no snow for the foreseeable future. Bleh what a lame start.

[Niko]

As for next weekend system........

 

NOAA:

 

Energetic pseudo zonal upper flow over the Conus on Friday makes for
difficult Weekend forecast as flow appears to buckle east of the
Mississippi River valley with potential storm system tracking
through Central/Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, per 00z Euro.
00z GFS displaced considerably farther to the East, as
interaction/merging/phasing with the system tracking through the
northern Gulf of Mexico will be the key, and the 00z Canadian
illustrates little interaction/much better separation. However, the
12z GFS has trended toward the Euro, thus rain and snow remains in
play, but the 12z Euro has now flipped toward the 00z GFS and is
well to the east. Plenty of additional flip-flopping remains likely
due to multiple upper level wave interactions in play.

 

Stay Tuned! 

[bud2380]

The euro and GFS both have a Storm in next Sunday-ish. Euro further north and reaches the Iowa/Missouri border. Gfs much further south.

[jaster220]

As for next weekend system........

 

NOAA:

 

Energetic pseudo zonal upper flow over the Conus on Friday makes for

difficult Weekend forecast as flow appears to buckle east of the

Mississippi River valley with potential storm system tracking

through Central/Eastern Great Lakes Saturday night, per 00z Euro.

00z GFS displaced considerably farther to the East, as

interaction/merging/phasing with the system tracking through the

northern Gulf of Mexico will be the key, and the 00z Canadian

illustrates little interaction/much better separation. However, the

12z GFS has trended toward the Euro, thus rain and snow remains in

play, but the 12z Euro has now flipped toward the 00z GFS and is

well to the east. Plenty of additional flip-flopping remains likely

due to multiple upper level wave interactions in play.

 

Stay Tuned! 

 

100 to 1 odds I'm thinking. And you?

[jaster220]

This be some real deal cold for the UP right before Christmas..

 

[Niko]

100 to 1 odds I'm thinking. And you?

Hoping it would.........

[CentralNebWeather]

Been out all day coaching my son’s team in a basketball tournament. Models don’t appear too much better than yesterday for storminess in this area.

[Stacsh]

The next big storm is always 7 days out.

[Niko]

Looks like an Anafront storm will provide accumulating snow midweek for many areas after the rain event tomorrow nite and into Tuesday on the EC roughly (Philly-Bos) maybe D.C.. There is going to be a low pressure area that develops along the front,which will provide accumulating snow to many areas as the front collapses towards the coast on Tuesday. Amounts and track are still uncertain. Any deviation of track could be a huge difference on snowfall amts. Interesting scenario to say the least.

[Niko]

The next big storm is always 7 days out.

Yep..I like it when they suddenly show up on models that are only a day or 2 away.

[Niko]

Clinton--

 

What are yr thoughts on next weekends storm. Will it be a GOM storm riding up the App Mtns?! Its a tough call amigo. Models are clueless at this point.

[Clinton]

Clinton--

 

What are yr thoughts on next weekends storm. Will it be a GOM storm riding up the App Mtns?! Its a tough call amigo. Models are clueless at this point.

I like what the GFS has been showing the last couple of runs, it's almost a carbon copy of how it tracked back in Oct.  I just hope it can pull down enough cold air for ya.

[Niko]

I like what the GFS has been showing the last couple of runs, it's almost a carbon copy of how it tracked back in Oct.  I just hope it can pull down enough cold air for ya.

Thats a good sign.......but, looks like very marginal cold around at that point of time.

 

[jaster220]

The next big storm is always 7 days out.

 

Unless you're in the UP or New England. 

[Niko]

It is a very mild evening tanite. At this hr, it is 47F. WOW!

[jaster220]

Thats a good sign.......but, looks like very marginal cold around at that point of time.

 

 

GRR at least mentioning the possibility. Not a total ignore by them fwiw.

 

A weak clipper could bring some light snow across the northern

zones later Thursday, then we will have to watch a southern

stream low moving north at the end of the week that could

eventually spread some rain or snow Friday and Saturday.

[Niko]

GRR at least mentioning the possibility. Not a total ignore by them fwiw.

 

A weak clipper could bring some light snow across the northern

zones later Thursday, then we will have to watch a southern

stream low moving north at the end of the week that could

eventually spread some rain or snow Friday and Saturday.

I am shock they are even mentioning. Usually they are very conservative. Just wish there was colder air around during that timeframe. I guess that is a very good sign though by GRR!

[Clinton]

And on this note I will declare it bedtime 

 

[snowstorm83]

GFS looking better for the Sunday storm. No idea why I'm looking at this when its a week out. I'm just desperate for something before I leave for 10 days on the 18th. 

[Tom]

00z Euro...lock it in!  This would put a smile on a lot of peoples faces...

 

 

 

 

[Clinton]

00z Euro...lock it in!  This would put a smile on a lot of peoples faces...

 

 

 

 

It would work for me!  It's good to see the Euro and GFS both have the storm.

[Tom]

It would work for me!  It's good to see the Euro and GFS both have the storm.

How does the EPS look?

[Clinton]

How does the EPS look?

Here it is,

 

[Tom]

Here it is,

 

 

How about through Day 10 which would include that storm?  I could sorta see the idea of a cutter...

[Clinton]

The mean is a little north of the GFS, for the storm next Monday.

 

[Tom]

I spent most of my day yesterday outside putting up my Christmas lights and some decor while the rest of my neighborhood seemed like they were in a frenzy themselves!  I took a trip to Home Depot & Menard's and they were jam packed!  Everyone was out and about making their runs and picking out fresh Christmas trees, lights and decor.  I certainly felt the "Holiday vibe" yesterday.  All we need now is some cold air and snow....

[Tom]

#SolarMin is making it's mark and quite possibly could set a Space Age record this week....

 

 

 

ONE WEEK FROM A SPACE AGE RECORD: 2019 is about to set a Space Age record. So far this year, the sun has been blank (no sunspots) for 262 days, including the last 25 days in a row. If the streak continues for only 7 more days, 2019 will break the Space Age record for spotless suns.

 

Above: The blank sun on Dec. 8, 2019. Credit: NASA/Solar Dynamics Observatory

 

The previous record-holder is the year 2008, when the sun was blank for 268 days, making the Solar Minimum of 2008-2009 the deepest of the Space Age. Next weekend, barring a sudden profusion of sunspots, 2019 will move into first place.

Solar Minimum is a normal part of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The past two (2008-2009 and 2018-2019) have been long and deep, making them "century-class" Minima. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1913, which had 311 spotless days.

[Tom]

The models are starting to sniff out a -PNA pattern for later in Week 2 which fits the pattern that happened across the Bearing Sea in early December.  The animation below is indicative of a transient ridge to develop between Dec 19th-22nd followed by a deep trough and storm systems through the holiday.

 

 

[Tom]

Nice to see the GEFS trending towards more blocking near Greenland once we get into the mid-month period...this should increase with time...