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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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That GOM Low bears watching. I suspect surprises by mid to late week.

 

Yep, ICON has it and it snows just east of the Mitt. Talk about getting shafted if that plays out.. :wacko:

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, ICON has it and it snows just east of the Mitt. Talk about getting shafted if that plays out.. :wacko:

:lol: :o

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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At that time-stamp it sure does. Then it lifts north over our heads with RAIN!  :lol:  (betta than nada we've got til now tho)

Yep, but tbh, I hate getting rain right after a nice, decent snowfall. If that is the case, then, I prefer its all rain instead. :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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00z GFS looks like the 12z Euro next Monday, suppressed and weak, becomes a solid storm for the northeast... nothing at all like the ICON.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFS is dreamy around Xmas... two snowstorms.  Of course they'll be gone next run, but it's fun to look at.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Winds are gusting at 30mph under overcast skies. Arctic air just around the corner about to slam my area.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's currently 20F with a gusty west wind and had some light snow falling.  Nice reminder that we are in met Winter.  Stepped outside and its a wee bit chilly!  Can't imagine what you guys up north are feeling right now....yikes!  I just got the chillzzz thinking of subzero air...stay warm!  Looks like the Upper MW has Wind Chill Advisories hoisted.

 

 

 

MY FORECAST

Minneapolis MN

nsct.png

Fair

-3°F

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Here in eastern Iowa we'll have to keep an eye on the Saturday system.  It could be a sneaky snow event if everything comes together just right.  The 06z GFS just shifted the entire system north by 150+ miles, so who knows.

 

A stronger push of cold behind the Saturday system helps to suppress the Monday system.

 

Then, here is the Euro at day 10.  Yuck.

 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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After the S.PLAINS event early./mid next week the pattern appears to go pretty quiet and above normal temps for many. The +NAO is not helping matters, perhaps the week of Christmas it will go neutral to negative so until then get what you can get in the next several days.

 

After a very wet FALL- only 1.71" of precip here since NOV 1st- and only .18" in DEC. The timing of cold and moisture here has not been great for appreciable snowfall though DSM is slightly above normal at 7.2" for the year. (5.4") is normal. I guess it could be worse (last DEC) but I bet Jan and Feb don't put down nearly 45" like last year.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Currently -4F on the backyard station. Forecasted high today lowered to 2F, and only 1F tomorrow. Wind chills to -30F. Hard to believe it’s only Dec 11. Looks and feels like the middle of February.

That should freeze up your lakes and others for the season. Did your lake open back up after that initial freeze in early NOV? The lake I grew up on in New Brighton did- but froze over for good (likely) about 10 days ago. Probably good that many did open back up and refreeze because the initial ice came and than that heavy snow which was bad for good ice.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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That should freeze up your lakes and others for the season. Did your lake open back up after that initial freeze in early NOV? The lake I grew up on in New Brighton did- but froze over for good (likely) about 10 days ago. Probably good that many did open back up and refreeze because the initial ice came and than that heavy snow which was bad for good ice.

I’d say about 80% of the lake opened back up after that early Nov freeze. My entire shoreline opened back up so I should have good ice for the hockey rink. The entire lake refroze a few days after Thanksgiving. The 3+ inches of snow yesterday is bad timing as this brutal cold would have been good for the ice, but the snow has insulated it.

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NWS Hastings still mentioning snow Sunday.  Local mets not too impressed.  They say some minor accumulations in Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska south of I-80 where I live.  Their idea is a more progressive, open wave that doesn't stick around long which would limit any more significant accumulations.  I guess we'll wait and see.  Even if we do get snow, looks above average temps next week so what falls would probably melt.

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Cloudy w snowshowers around and temps are holding in the low 30s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As for the weekend storm, the Euro and GFS are showing this storm system for the OV and the EC

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NWS Hastings still mentioning snow Sunday.  Local mets not too impressed.  They say some minor accumulations in Northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska south of I-80 where I live.  Their idea is a more progressive, open wave that doesn't stick around long which would limit any more significant accumulations.  I guess we'll wait and see.  Even if we do get snow, looks above average temps next week so what falls would probably melt.

AO and NAO look to get back to neutral by the 16th, hope it's in time to help this system out.

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Doesn't say a whole lot but this is the snowiest GFS mean we have had in awhile.

 

1577340000-zN6FwhXMpPE.png

I'll accept it! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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