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December 2019 Observations & Discussion

clintbeed1993

By clintbeed1993
in East of the Rockies

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Grizzcoat
Grizzcoat

Visiting my mother where I grew up in the Twin Cities. Nice snow shower about an hour ago. Nice change from brown C.IA!  

Hawkeye
Hawkeye

Does it bug anyone else when a tv meteorologist says, "Temperatures will be 15-20º above where they should be"?  The average temp is just that.... the average.  Wild temp swings are normal, especially

mlgamer
mlgamer

Hopefully winter returns soon...but for now.........  

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james1976 Veteran

james1976

Posted
Posted

Looks like a little stat padder snowfall on Thursday morning and possibly again on Saturday. Pretty progressive flow isn’t good for storms but it’s good for keeping the snow cover fresh.

I'll be in your neighborhood this weekend so maybe I'll get to see some snowfall.
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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Seems to me that Saturday's system will either stay north and not bring the cold push as far south, allowing the Sunday/Monday system to track further north.  Or the Saturday system comes in further south and stronger with a cold push behind it that suppresses the Sunday/Monday system.  We'll just have to let models flip flop on this for a few days.  

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bud2380 Veteran

bud2380

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Temps in the low to mid 20s should bring at least 15:1 ratio here.  But I really don't believe anything the GFS says at this range.  It's sad how bad of a model it has become.  It was never as good as the Euro, but it was at least close. I feel like the upgrade set it way back.  

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

Posted
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GFS at hour 204 has 0F in DSM. Same time (216HR ) from 00Z had 40F. What could go wrong? For temps at the 8-9 day range that is about as much volatility you can get.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

UK looks less amped with the Monday system compared to the 00z.  It does still have some snow for Iowa Saturday.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Clinton Grand Master

Clinton

Posted
Posted

The GFS lays the hammer down, extreme winter conditions over take the country starting later this weekend east of the Rockies.

 

Now, yesterday’s GFS runs had much warmer thoughts.

 

As always, we will know soon.

GFS mean and ensembles really starting to look good for us.  I don't believe this will be a huge storm but 2-5in not out of the question.

 

1576584000-BIkMdp7PP38.png

1576584000-GTd7C48gB9Y.png

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
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GFS mean and ensembles really starting to look good for us.  I don't believe this will be a huge storm but 2-5in not out of the question.

 

1576584000-BIkMdp7PP38.png

1576584000-GTd7C48gB9Y.png

 

Last nights 00z EPS members had a few very nice hits and after seeing the 12z GEFS members showing many more "spread the wealth" scenarios, I'm starting to feel a bit better about this system.  As you said, might not be the biggest storm but enough to lighten up the mood overall.  

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

Saturday system is now vanishing.  zzzzz

 

It won't be long before we start punting to January.

 

SInce models project out 10+ days, so true. In 10 days, the rest of Dec will at least be "projected" whether accurately or not ofc is the question?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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jaster220 Grand Master

jaster220

Posted
Posted

12z GEM thru next Wed. Not huge, but not bad either..

 

20191210 12z_GEM Snowfall_h204.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

Man, the Euro is about as bad as the GFS anymore.  LOL.  Saturday system went from 3-5" across eastern Iowa, to not a drop of precip.  Models suck at their job.  :P Maybe that means the Sunday/Monday system will be back though.  

 

Nope.  The pattern looks just as suppressed even without the Saturday system.

 

Here are the last four 12z Euro runs showing the increasing suppression of the pattern ahead of the Monday system.

 

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh120_trend.gif

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tom Grand Master

Tom

Posted
Posted

Nope.  The pattern looks even more suppressed even without the Saturday system.

Not necessarily, that HP across the MW slides E/SE out ahead of the main energy in the SW which is better for storm development.  I think there will be a storm on this run.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now...

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Grizzcoat Veteran

Grizzcoat

Posted
Posted

The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now...

 

Dec 12 and 13'-  DEC  12' had above avg snowfall- but above avg temps - Dec 13' had both above snowfall (thou less than 12') but much colder temps and below avg. This is for DSM., Since then it's been late Fall month and not a winter month here in DSM.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
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Dec 12 and 13'-  DEC  12' had above avg snowfall- but above avg temps - Dec 13' had both above snowfall (thou less than 12') but much colder temps and below avg. This is for DSM., Since then it's been late Fall month and not a winter month here in DSM.

 

:lol:  What a climate

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Hawkeye Grand Master

Hawkeye

Posted
Posted

The lack of precip really sucks as there is plenty of cold air around waiting to be used. It seems, especially recently, december tries to find just about any way possible to flop over on its side. Can someone with good recordkeeping find when our last winning december was? It has to have been 4-5 years now...

 

2013 was the last real good one here (16.3").  After that it was 0.6", 5.4", 10.5", 7.9" (all at end of month), and 0.7" last year.  The last December snowstorm bigger than 6 inches was way back in 2010.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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hlcater Enthusiast

hlcater

Posted
Posted

2013 was the last real good one here (16.3").  After that it was 0.6", 5.4", 10.5", 7.9" (all at end of month), and 0.7" last year.  The last December snowstorm bigger than 6 inches was way back in 2010.

 

It really sucks as I much prefer front loaded winters to back loaded ones, and that 6" stat is pitiful. 

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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