December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[bud2380]

GFS coming in further south this run, looks like it will likely stay south of Iowa.  

[GDR]

Looks well south more in line with the king

[GDR]

It’s trending towards a dud which it’s not a good thing

[bud2380]

GFS nearly gets to I80 with the storm in Iowa, but the bulk stays south.

[Stacsh]

Hey guys, there is a thread for this storm.  

[Stormy]

I measured awhile ago and only 1/2” of snow as I expected.

[bud2380]

go north...100 miles.  ha ha.  GIven that the Euro is showing the heaviest snow in southern Missouri and the GFS northern Missouri, we're on the outside looking in here right now.  But if at 120 hours this was showing the heaviest snow along I80 in Iowa, i know models would shift it up to MSP in 2 days.  

 

 

[bud2380]

Hey guys, there is a thread for this storm.  

 

Thanks, i didn't realize one had been created this morning.  

[Stacsh]

Thanks, i didn't realize one had been created this morning.  

 no problem, I figured people just didn't see it yet.  

[Niko]

Some snowshowers attm w a temp of 23F.

[Grizzcoat]

Don't buy it one bit...the amount of blocking now showing up in the models and the warming on going in the Strat suggests the opposite.  We are in for an interesting period of winter weather.

12Z GFS is slowly caving to the EURO with abv normal temps in the 11-15 day.

[Mi_Matthew]

Yep..pretty decent run. I'll accept that!

 

Sadly the trend didn't continue for this weekend. Here's last night & 12z today from the UKMO.

[Niko]

 

Sadly the trend didn't continue for this weekend. Here's last night & 12z today from the UKMO.us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121100_90_520_228 (2).pngus_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019121112_78_520_228.png

You will continue to see lots of changes until that time. Every model will fluctuate. I would pay more attn to this as it nears the event, if there is one.

 

To reality now: I am currently seeing snowshowers, but not too hvy. Temps are in the low 20s.

[Tom]

12Z GFS is slowly caving to the EURO with abv normal temps in the 11-15 day.

12z GEFS are still bold with the cold...

[Iowawx]

Picked up 1.4" of light fluffy snow last night. All of this snow will melt tomorrow as temperatures will get into the low 40's tomorrow and some light rain/freezing rain is possible tomorrow morning. 
 

[Clinton]

12z GEFS are still bold with the cold...

12z GFS mean still painting a snowy picture.

[Niko]

Moderate snow now. Temp at 23F.

[Northland09]

Woke up to -14 this morning. Wow! I forgot what it's like to have your nose hairs and eyelashes freeze instantly I can't believe it's only December and we are already experiencing this type of cold.  I'm wondering what January will be bringing!  Also, it's been a while since we've had this good amount of snow in December.  After the last snowfall a couple days ago, it brought our snow pile higher than our backhoe! Typically we don't have our snow pile like that until the end of February. Loving winter so far! More snow on the way tonight!

[St Paul Storm]

^^ Awesome! It’s been a good few weeks for sure. Winter is definitely here!

[St Paul Storm]

3km NAM and a few others showing up to 6” for the metro between tonight’s snow and Friday’s. No warmth in sight to dent the snowpack. Quietly approaching double digits otg.

[jaster220]

3km NAM and a few others showing up to 6” for the metro between tonight’s snow and Friday’s. No warmth in sight to dent the snowpack. Quietly approaching double digits otg.

 

Sweet! Good luck up there SPS. 

 

Meanwhile, who will win the battle of the LR ensembles??

 

[Stormhunter87]

Almost completely clear skies but got some flurries flying around. Interesting.

[jaster220]

This little wave tomorrow has grown quite a bit stronger in the short term. Didn't expect WSWarnings yet there's quite a few. NAM12 painting some nice coverage across the northlands. Even has the early snow in NE & KS at the end of it's run. 

 

[Clinton]

This little wave tomorrow has grown quite a bit stronger in the short term. Didn't expect WSWarnings yet there's quite a few. NAM12 painting some nice coverage across the northlands. Even has the early snow in NE & KS at the end of it's run. 

 

20191211 18z nam h84 snowfall SLR.png

It's been the trend this year for the models to get wetter as storm gets closer.  Good luck buddy 

[jaster220]

It's been the trend this year for the models to get wetter as storm gets closer.  Good luck buddy 

 

Thx, and same for you with the Sun/Monday system!

[Niko]

Attm, 16F under crystal clear skies.

[jaster220]

Attm, 16F under crystal clear skies.

 

Bottomed at 12F here already. I think we go up now due to increasing clouds. 

[jaster220]

Bottomed at 12F here already. I think we go up now due to increasing clouds. 

 

NWS in "catch up" mode this evening!

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 905 PM EST Wed Dec 11 2019

 

With clearing skies and arctic air, temperatures have plummeted

below the forecast overnight temperatures and will probably fall

into the single digits in some interior locations before midnight.

Then winds and clouds will increase after midnight and

temperatures may begin to rise. Temperatures were lowered to match

up with current obs and expected couple more hours of decent

radiational cooling conditions.

[Niko]

Bottomed at 12F here already. I think we go up now due to increasing clouds. 

Yep...yr right amigo. My temps might go as low as mid teens and that should do it b4 rising.

[jaster220]

   

 

This is almost comical. GRR playing chase the free-falling temps game (and losing). Last time I looked, my grid low was 16F, but was already at 12F. Now my low is down to 12F, but actual current down to 9F. Too funny

 

 

 

[GDR]

[Grizzcoat]

Other than a Clipper middle of next week and than around The Lakes it's pretty much a snooze fest on the Euro for most after early next week- and even that is a snooze fest for most on the Euro. Can the GFS actually be "that" right and the Euro "that" wrong? Rhetorical question.

[Tom]

Other than a Clipper middle of next week and than around The Lakes it's pretty much a snooze fest on the Euro for most after early next week- and even that is a snooze fest for most on the Euro. Can the GFS actually be "that" right and the Euro "that" wrong? Rhetorical question.

IMO, the GFS is handling the warm waters off the NE PAC a lot better in the extended and it is crushing the Euro in extended with regards to the Greenland Block.  The 00z EPS continues to trend towards the GEFS in terms of blocking and cooler trends.  As amazing as the sounds, it's looking like the GEFS are winning in that dept.

 

That warm blob is fierce...

 

 

 

Not to mention, but what the GEFS are advertising at 10mb is exactly the same pattern it "saw" in the extended that brought the ridiculous Nov cold...#CrossPolarFlow

[Tom]

I have more time this morning to take a look at what I believe will be the driving pattern for the rest of this month.  A few days ago, I mentioned that I'm banking on the blocking to develop and rest assured, all the models are now beginning to see this.  Kuddos to the GEFS for sniffing this out in the LR.  You've seen me use this idea I have regarding where the 10mb/30mb warming occurs countless times in the past and its proving to be a great LR tool this year again.  

 

It's very clear to me that based on how the strat warming is developing, I will be looking for lots of blocking to develop across Canada/Arctic regions going forward.  It would not surprise me that by the end of the month, or rather, the Christmas holiday week that we see several bowling ball lows or CO Low's that track west/east due to increase chances of strong Canadian HP's that will suppress the pattern.  

 

Take a look at this animation below, that is about as beautiful as one can ask for if you live in our Sub Forum.  The last few frames are very interesting as it "fits" the LRC pattern, whereby, the warming remains locked near Greenland (moreso of a west-based warming) that will undoubtedly produce a west-based Greenland block in the LR and prob into early January.

 

 

 

 

 

Same concept relates to the 30mb warming...

 

 

 

Look how bad the EPS has busted in the pattern across Greenland over the past 5 runs...Woops!

 

The 00z GEFS surface pressure pattern setting up around the middle of next week into the holidays is increasingly showing signs of major blocking up across Canada.  #SeedTheCold

 

 

 

 

 

Last night's 00z EPS AO forecast...Hello Block, ready to Rock???

 

 

Lastly, watch for the models to flash a stout -EPO pattern for the last 10 days of the month.  This will set the stage for Historic cold IMHO.  The glacier will continue to build up north and finally settle south in due time.  The second half rally is about to begin...looks like its starting a little early than previously thought.  Soon enough, many of us will have forgotten about the the blow torch model forecasts for the month of December. 

 

Oh, I wanted to share with you the JMA weeklies temp forecast and they have flipped towards a torch.  Just wanted to show you that its not just one model or the other, every model is being chaotic this season.

 

Week 2...

 

 

Week 3-4...

 

 

 

At the end of the day, what will we learn???  Is the LRC a good tool to use to forecast the long range pattern???  This month has certainly shown the volatility of the models but one thing is for certain, the weather will do what it wants to no matter what the models say and do.  It's been a challenging season but sometimes you have to stick to your guns.  I'm not going to bust on this December and we are most definitely not going to have another lack luster December like in recent years.  Get 'er done!  Let's rock and roll!

[St Paul Storm]

Steady snow falling this morning. It’s caused a heat wave here, temp up to 14F. Radar is really filling in now. We should be able to achieve the forecasted 1-3”. Another 1-2” possible tomorrow.

[Clinton]

Steady snow falling this morning. It’s caused a heat wave here, temp up to 14F. Radar is really filling in now. We should be able to achieve the forecasted 1-3”. Another 1-2” possible tomorrow.

Nice you are having a great winter.  Get ready for the freezer it's coming!

[St Paul Storm]

Nice you are having a great winter.  Get ready for the freezer it's coming!

We had to wait a bit for things to get going in November, but it’s been a good start to the season for sure. The last few Decembers have been complete duds. It’s nice having snow in the first half of winter for a change.

 

Good luck with the potential storm next week! You guys down there will cash in soon I’m sure.

[Clinton]

Thanks a lot and I think we have a good shot at this one.

[Tom]

Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days.

[Clinton]

Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days.

It's possible that we are on to a Harmonic, but a 48 day harmonic just seems crazy.