December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Attm, 21F under mostly cloudy skies.

[Tom]

It's possible that we are on to a Harmonic, but a 48 day harmonic just seems crazy.

.

 

Very true, I’m puzzled at this point bc a lot of the features line up with what we’ve been showing.

[Clinton]

Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days.

Also he said a few days ago, that in the last cycle this storm "was a weak wave way up in Canada."  That just doesn't make since to me at all given the current data takes the Low across N. ARK.  He never mention this storm 1 time until the GFS began blowing it up over KC.  I'm not saying he is wrong but it just doesn't make a lot of since to me.

[Clinton]

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Very true, I’m puzzled at this point bc a lot of the features line up with what we’ve been showing.

To the day in fact, including the major artic blast that is now showing up for the 28th 29th.

[westMJim]

Well, here we are 12 days into December 2019 and so far this has been a very typical December here in Grand Rapids. The mean temperature is 31.5° and that is a departure of -0.6° There has been 5.6” of snowfall (6.4” is average at this date)  Yesterdays low was the coldest so far this season with a low of +10° (I had a low of +9°at my house) and there is now 1.5” of snow on the ground here at my house.  As I said a very typical early December. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 60 was set in 1991 and the record low of -5 was set in 1958. The largest snow fall was 6.1” in 1972 and the most on the ground was 12” in 2000.

[Tom]

Also he said a few days ago, that in the last cycle this storm "was a weak wave way up in Canada." That just doesn't make since to me at all given the current data takes the Low across N. ARK. He never mention this storm 1 time until the GFS began blowing it up over KC. I'm not saying he is wrong but it just doesn't make a lot of since to me.

Not to mention, how does he explain the Gulf Low this week/weekend! I don’t recall seeing a pattern like this in mid October.

[Clinton]

Not to mention, how does he explain the Gulf Low this week/weekend! I don’t recall seeing a pattern like this in mid October.

Exactly, and yesterday when the GFS and Euro were miles apart he couldn't make a guess at which one was right or if the truth was in the middle.  Which is what the LRC should help with the most.

[mlgamer]

Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days.

I saw that too and have spent time this morning looking at the 500mb charts. I saw some very subtle similarities supporting about a 60 day cycle, but nothing clearly definitive to my amateur eyes anyway. Oct 12 featured a deep low centered over northern Minnesota, this morning's data shows a slight ripple in that area. I know Gary knows his stuff but I'm a bit puzzled myself as I was leaning towards 48 days or so.

[St Paul Storm]

Rippin pretty good out there. Temp up to 17F.

 

Models overall are increasing precip amounts for tomorrow’s system, including our favorite model the GFS. #winter

[Tom]

Boy, that blocking is looking impressive around Greenland later next week and leading up towards the Solstice period.  Winter Solstice storm???

[CentralNebWeather]

 

12Z GFS Totals.  What could go wrong?

[Beltrami Island]

Boy, that blocking is looking impressive around Greenland later next week and leading up towards the Solstice period.  Winter Solstice storm???

What are you looking at?  Which model?  I am confused.

[Tom]

What are you looking at? Which model? I am confused.

GFS model...

[jaster220]

Well, here we are 12 days into December 2019 and so far this has been a very typical December here in Grand Rapids. The mean temperature is 31.5° and that is a departure of -0.6° There has been 5.6” of snowfall (6.4” is average at this date)  Yesterdays low was the coldest so far this season with a low of +10° (I had a low of +9°at my house) and there is now 1.5” of snow on the ground here at my house.  As I said a very typical early December. For today the average H/L is 36/25 the record high of 60 was set in 1991 and the record low of -5 was set in 1958. The largest snow fall was 6.1” in 1972 and the most on the ground was 12” in 2000.

 

KRMY bottomed out at a solid 8F - coldest of the young winter. 

[Clinton]

12z GFS MEAN, this could really enhance the Artic air.

[Niko]

Temps are rebounding nicely. At 27F under mostly cloudy skies. A weak system coming for late tomorrow nite in early saturday morning could provide a little snow. The weak low will be passing north of mby.

[Beltrami Island]

GFS model...

That is where I am confused.  This run of the GFS hardly has what I now as a greenland block.  Some temporary warm anomalies west of Greenland, that are quickly replaced in a few days by negative anomalies.  The NAO isn't even forecast to be much lower than neutral as well.

[Tom]

That is where I am confused.  This run of the GFS hardly has what I now as a greenland block.  Some temporary warm anomalies west of Greenland, that are quickly replaced in a few days by negative anomalies.  The NAO isn't even forecast to be much lower than neutral as well.

This is what I was referring to....phase the Polar Vortex and southern stream and there could be a pretty storm...

 

[Mi_Matthew]

Jaster, any thoughts on tangible impacts for SEMI from the GOM low this weekend? I see the NAM has nudged the snow shield a little further west. I have long been suspicious of a track along the spine of the Appalachains...

[jaster220]

Jaster, any thoughts on tangible impacts for SEMI from the GOM low this weekend? I see the NAM has nudged the snow shield a little further west. I have long been suspicious of a track along the spine of the Appalachains...

 

I see a few models showing what may be a burst of very wet flakes. It's really going to be a "now-cast" event imho. Good luck over there. Doubt it's far enough west to get me in the game tbh.

 

 

What I have my eyes on is the NAM bringing the Sat night LES virtually to my doorstep. 

 

[Mi_Matthew]

I see a few models showing what may be a burst of very wet flakes. It's really going to be a "now-cast" event imho. Good luck over there. Doubt it's far enough west to get me in the game tbh.

 

 

What I have my eyes on is the NAM bringing the Sat night LES virtually to my doorstep.

 

20191212 12z NAM h66.png

And good luck to you! I just read the AFD from DTX, goes quite in depth regarding Saturday out this way. Could be one of the very rare east side specials!

 

FWIW, they don't buy the GFS solution next week...

[Niko]

Attm, 32 under clear skies.

[hlcater]

Cold and dry, what an amazing climo 

 

[SE Wisconsin]

For folks in the southern half of the Upper Midwest, this is turning into another very frustrating December with no end in sight.  I may be ready for Spring if this goes on much longer.  

[GDR]

Well the old phrase of if there’s no snow on the ground by December 15 then the chances of a white Christmas goes down dramatically is about to come into affect.

[Clinton]

IMO the GFS did a good job tonight modeling the storm due in on the 21st.  That storm should stay across the southern plains.  Next big ticket storm Dec 26th.

[Northland09]

So I was watching the news today and our chief meterologist Ian Leonard mentioned that Minnesota typically receives 54" of snow in a normal winter.  Currently the Twin Cities have picked up 20.1" of snow since late October, and Duluth is sitting at 47.8" within the same time frame...and it's only mid-December!! That's crazy! Heading up to Duluth next week and I am excited to see the amount of snow that's up there. Hoping this winter continues like this!

[Stormy]

This from Terry Swails was interesting as well.

https://www.tswails.com/terry-s-blog

 

Edit: I was referring to his December 12th post of the wet year across the CONUS, etc. For some reason my link doesn’t take it directly to that post.

[bud2380]

The ridge that settles in on the 00z Euro in the long term means business. Yikes. After the Monday storm get ready for a whole lot of nothing

[Hawkeye]

The ridge that settles in on the 00z Euro in the long term means business. Yikes. After the Monday storm get ready for a whole lot of nothing

 

[Tom]

So I was watching the news today and our chief meterologist Ian Leonard mentioned that Minnesota typically receives 54" of snow in a normal winter.  Currently the Twin Cities have picked up 20.1" of snow since late October, and Duluth is sitting at 47.8" within the same time frame...and it's only mid-December!! That's crazy! Heading up to Duluth next week and I am excited to see the amount of snow that's up there. Hoping this winter continues like this!

Ya'll up north are experiencing a legendary start to winter.  IMHO, the way this pattern is coming together your going to keep on tacking on to your ever-growing glacier.  Might not see the grass till sometime in late March...April???  I'm glad to hear you are all enjoying this December compared to the duds in recent years.  Take some pics while your up north.

[Tom]

There will be a short period leading up towards the Winter Solstice where a transient ridge develops across the central/eastern CONUS that directly correlates to what happened across the Bearing Sea/Aleutians in early December.  This large & transient ridge (3-4 days) that developed, was followed by a deep trough and storm systems so the "warm up" showing up in the medium range IMO will be felt more the farther south/west you are in our Sub.  The high lat blocking will help negate what warmth tries to build up across the northern/eastern half of our Sub.  I'm more interested what follows this period around Christmas and the New Year as the pattern loads back up with cold and storms on the calendar.

[Clinton]

GFS mean picking up on the 2 post Christmas storms 26th and 29th

[Tom]

GFS mean picking up on the 2 post Christmas storms 26th and 29th

 

Southern Stream storm track is gonna rock for the holidays...should be a fun and busy period of storm tracking....

[Clinton]

Southern Stream storm track is gonna rock for the holidays...should be a fun and busy period of storm tracking....

And a brutal Artic front included to keep everyone snow nice and cold for awhile.

[Clinton]

AO and NAO look to dive negative early next week, could this have any impact on this weekends storm?

[Stormhunter87]

GFS mean picking up on the 2 post Christmas storms 26th and 29th

No bad gfs hold off untill I get home.

[westMJim]

After yesterdays high of 39° and the overnight low staying above 32, I am now down to just a trace of snow on the ground. For today the average H/L is now at 35/24. The record high for today of 61 was set in 2015 and the record low of -6 was set in 1958. The record snow fall of 6.8” fell in 1973 and the snow depth of 15” in 1970 is the most on the ground. Still just 0.02" short of setting a new yearly rain fall record here at Grand Rapids.

[Niko]

Currently at 32F under mostly cloudy skies.

[Stormhunter87]

Hmm some freezing rain this morning in the metro. Apparently it is chaos on the roads.