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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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IMO the GFS did a good job tonight modeling the storm due in on the 21st.  That storm should stay across the southern plains.  Next big ticket storm Dec 26th.

 

 

The GFS and the Euro are worlds apart on the 21st.  Euro has strong ridging in place over almost all the US while the GFS has a system along the Gulf Coast throwing moisture all the way up to Iowa.  I have a guess on which one I think will be correct...

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

 

prateptype_cat.conus.png

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So I was watching the news today and our chief meterologist Ian Leonard mentioned that Minnesota typically receives 54" of snow in a normal winter.  Currently the Twin Cities have picked up 20.1" of snow since late October, and Duluth is sitting at 47.8" within the same time frame...and it's only mid-December!! That's crazy! Heading up to Duluth next week and I am excited to see the amount of snow that's up there. Hoping this winter continues like this!

The snow Duluth has gotten is impressive, but their average yearly snowfall is much greater than 54".  I think closer to 70-80".  They have reached 100" more than a few times thanks to lake enhanced snowstorms.  What is really crazy is the amount of snow around the moose lake area, that is 100% synoptic snow.  Moose Lake area is at record snow depth for the date.

 

 https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/snowmap/snowmap_191212.html

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Clinton, looks like Gary provided some insight on his thoughts of the LRC length. He said cycle #2 started a week ago and the Halloween storm is not part of the storm happening early next week. This has me thinking that maybe we dialed in on the LRC’s harmonic pattern? Smaller scale cycles within the main cycle? I’ll be honest, I’m puzzled to see him suggest that it is roughly 57-60 days.

I'd argue a case for the tropics running one length of a harmonic and the arctic running another length. Either way, 60 wasn't too far off my call of 61-63 days.

 

I'll add though, that the major cold wave event that I'd marked in october hasn't repeated and it should have. We're at 64+ days since then.

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Seems the GFS which once was quite cold and even snowy in the 10+ day range is caving to what the Euro has consistently shown for days. Yawner for most outside the Lakes....Imagine that in Dec.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Seems the GFS which once was quite cold and even snowy in the 10+ day range is caving to what the Euro has consistently shown for days. Yawner for most outside the Lakes....Imagine that in Dec.

Ya I think it will quiet down after this storm until the 26th and then a bigger storm with the Artic air around the 28th or 29th.  I think the Euro is a little warm with temps but we shall see.

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While the Mitt Peeps watch a near miss with this Gulf/East Coast bomb storm, the cold air coming down behind it looks to bring me another shot at LES (to replace what's melting attm) from later tomorrow afternoon overnight into Sunday. Some SR models show a west-east band focused along an embedded trough line, others like the NMM have a more traditional NW flow coverage scenario. NWS even mentioning the possible surprise enhancement due to the pin-wheeling trough axis.

 

NMM (15 hrs of flakes flying and still going at h48)

 

20191213 12z WRFNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh33-48.gif

 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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While the Mitt Peeps watch a near miss with this Gulf/East Coast bomb storm, the cold air coming down behind it looks to bring me another shot at LES (to replace what's melting attm) from later tomorrow afternoon overnight into Sunday. Some SR models show a west-east band focused along an embedded trough line, others like the NMM have a more traditional NW flow coverage scenario. NWS even mentioning the possible surprise enhancement due to the pin-wheeling trough axis.

 

NMM (15 hrs of flakes flying and still going at h48)

 

attachicon.gif20191213 12z WRFNMM_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh33-48.gif

Looking great for yby bud! ;) LES machine will provide the goods for ya.

 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, its cloudy and seasonably cold w temps at 34F. It actually feels balmy outside.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The snow Duluth has gotten is impressive, but their average yearly snowfall is much greater than 54".  I think closer to 70-80".  They have reached 100" more than a few times thanks to lake enhanced snowstorms.  What is really crazy is the amount of snow around the moose lake area, that is 100% synoptic snow.  Moose Lake area is at record snow depth for the date.

 

 https://www.dnr.state.mn.us/climate/snowmap/snowmap_191212.html

 

Beltrami, my cabin is in Cromwell which is 20 min. from Moose Lake.  I haven't been up there since we had that first big snowfall a few weeks ago, but my husband had to bring our bobcat up there to plow things out :P Unfortunately all the snow has made it tough to wander in the woods (even with snowshoes on) and will make it tough to go onto the lakes to ice fish. Even snowmobiling was rough up there as of last week due to swamps being open still. Hopefully things have froze up a bit. It is what it is. Going to be swinging on through there next week on my up to Duluth just to check things out with my own eyes. I'll take some pictures ;)

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Ya'll up north are experiencing a legendary start to winter.  IMHO, the way this pattern is coming together your going to keep on tacking on to your ever-growing glacier.  Might not see the grass till sometime in late March...April???  I'm glad to hear you are all enjoying this December compared to the duds in recent years.  Take some pics while your up north.

 

It's weird to think that last year at this exact same time we barely had anything on the ground. Everything was frozen, that's all! Hoping that's the case that Spring comes at a decent time this year! I will take late March/early April to start seeing the ground again :) But until then, I will enjoy this winter.

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Looking great for yby bud! ;) LES machine will provide the goods for ya.

 

 

Thx for the positive thoughts buddy!  I've already been more fortunate than some on here thanks to LES. Tbh, when I grew up in SEMI, deep snow prior to January was not that common. More often it was of the "coating to an inch" variety. Cold but not deep. And I'm ok with that really. Just enough to cover grass tips works. Anything more is just a bonus to me. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Des Moines NWS has their radar up and running earlier than expected.

At least the weather was boring while it was down! And likely work on it progressed faster than they anticipated with nice working conditions and no snow OTG. When I saw the photos of workers and machines replacing the dome etc, I thought how much more difficult and dangerous it would be to get it done with snow and bitter cold! I'm happy they had nice conditions to get it done.

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It's weird to think that last year at this exact same time we barely had anything on the ground. Everything was frozen, that's all! Hoping that's the case that Spring comes at a decent time this year! I will take late March/early April to start seeing the ground again :) But until then, I will enjoy this winter.

I told you we’d get our snow, and it would stick around! With no real warmth in sight and a relatively deep snowpack, we’re looking good for winter sports. Enjoy it...I know I will!

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@St Paul Storm I'm in the TC this weekend! Goin to the Timberwolves/Clippers game tonight at Target Center! You got some awesome snowcover up here! I'm guessing 7 or 8" OTG??

Welcome to town! Yep 8” after today’s quick hitter. Should stick around for quite a while too. Enjoy your time up here this weekend!

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What a beautiful evening out there. Clear skies w temps at 28F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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What a beautiful evening out there. Clear skies w temps at 28F.

 

:) Great night to be up late following pending storm, eh bud? Nice that it dropped below freezing again about 8:30 here. Hit 40F for about an hour this afternoon, but was above freezing for about 12 hrs total. Wiped out almost all my light duty LES. Do have a bit on the north side of my garage and shovel piles on my deck. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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HRRR only out to h36 but it has the lake streamer (extrapolated) coming right for central Calhoun. Nice to see at least one model painting the possibility. My local grid is up to 60% SHSN likely

 

20191214 0z HRRR h48 snowfall KCH.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:) Great night to be up late following pending storm, eh bud? Nice that it dropped below freezing again about 8:30 here. Hit 40F for about an hour this afternoon, but was above freezing for about 12 hrs total. Wiped out almost all my light duty LES. Do have a bit on the north side of my garage and shovel piles on my deck. 

You bet! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Next week looks dry and cold (assuming we get a storm early next week) and right into the beginning of the following week.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Next week looks dry and cold (assuming we get a storm early next week) and right into the beginning of the following week.

 

GRR beating their LES drum again. Saying that the cold on the heels of Monday night's system could ignite the lake some more. We will see..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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More GFS ensembles are picking up on the post Christmas storms this will be fun to watch over the next week or so.

1577664000-uci0wXb494w.png

 

Tom mentioned "bowling ball storms" and that map kinda has that look. With the current storm looking less like a cutter path, is this the year of sliders and bowling balls?? What happened to S. Stream pan handle hooks, lol?

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Tom mentioned "bowling ball storms" and that map kinda has that look. With the current storm looking less like a cutter path, is this the year of sliders and bowling balls?? What happened to S. Stream pan handle hooks, lol?

There will be several storms influenced by the SE ridge and those will hook your way.

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There will be several storms influenced by the SE ridge and those will hook your way.

 

Isn't that what we thought about this one tho?  :lol:  Unless we're in for one drastic change, this one's kinda flat

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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