December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Looking lame isn't it amigo! Always goes like this. The better it looks from a distance, the worse it ends up, lol. At least here, I've already outscored last Dec's abysmal total, but November was half of last Nov so for the combined months I may be lacking in the end. 

You bet!

 

Check this out.....

 

NOAA:

A colder pattern becomes established into the middle of the week

once this southern shortwave passes and the northern vorticity digs

through Ontario and allow for a brief intrusion of arctic air into

the Great Lakes. The coldest day will be Wednesday when temperatures

hold in the 20s throughout the day. The overall upper pattern does

remain progressive though and this bubble of arctic air moderates as

the northern upper low pivots into the Canadian maritime. A wavy

zonal pattern then expands east over the CONUS in the wake of this

system and brings moderated Pacific air back east through the CONUS

and cuts off any further intrusion of arctic air for the remainder

of this forecast period (and beyond). This will result in moderating

temperatures back to around 40 for week`s end.

 

Break out the shades and shorts

[Mi_Matthew]

Looking lame isn't it amigo! Always goes like this. The better it looks from a distance, the worse it ends up, lol. At least here, I've already outscored last Dec's abysmal total, but November was half of last Nov so for the combined months I may be lacking in the end.

Yep, really lame unless one is to believe the CMC which shows a few clippers over the next 10 days vs. the GFS which is amping the warmth more in line with the Euro. I think the CMC will lose this battle.

[chances14]

it seems like getting snow in november has been a death sentence for getting anything meaningful in december for southern michigan the past few years. I really hope we don't end up with another brown christmas

[james1976]

I was in Fargo over night. Whole different world up there. Has to be close to a foot of snow on the ground. Snow piles everywhere. Temp was -9 and WC of -25. Lots of Christmas lights. Definitely puts one in the holiday spirit!

[westMJim]

While here in southern lower Michigan there is not much snow at all that is not the case in the UP and northern lower, here are some reports in the north.

 Painesdale 36”- Kearsarge 29″- Marquette (airport) 28”-Michigamme 27”- Sawyer 26″ Hancock and Paulding 25″ -Watersmeet, Ishpeming 22″ Ironwood, Gladstone, Munising, Green Garden 24″ Marquette (downtown – which usually has less snow than the Marquette Airport) 19″-- Iron Mt. and Champion18″-- Norway and Jacobsville 16″ Watton 15″ Detour Village, Garden Corners 14″-- Moran 13″ St. Ignace12″-- S. Ste. Marie, Drummond Is.11″-- Mancelona, Manistique 8″ E. Jordan 7″-- Charlevoix, Gaylord 4″-- Grayling 3″-- Alpena and Benzonia 2″ Fife Lake, Atlanta, Mio and Lewiston 1” Here at my house 

[CentralNebWeather]

Will have to watch to see if the big storm in the Southwest materializes in the next week. If it doesn’t happen, brown Christmas for many of us on here.

[Niko]

Latest 12z Euro is showing nothing for the extended. As quiet as can be. I've always said to myself that getting November snows is not good for December. Seems like it always works like this.

 

[jlp]

I agree. As exciting as November snow events are, they always seem to throw a wrench in December/ early January snowfall. Best to have the snow start in December. I think the last time a snowy November continued throughout the entire winter here in SE WI. was 07-08.

[GDR]

Looks like nothing on the gfs through the 31st

[OmahaSnowFan]

Another 1” event here. Ties for the highest snowfall yet again this season. Snowed 6x here for a total of 4.7”

Also noticed the person who makes reports on RadarScope near where I live reported 2.2” of snow. It’s amusing how high he always is with reports. Always has an inch more of rain compared to everyone, 60 mph winds when the winds are 40 mph, and the highest snowfall in the metro.

[St Paul Storm]

First cross country skiers and ice fishermen on the lake this afternoon. Not sure I’d be that brave, but to each their own. Winter lake season has begun.

[Thunder98]

The recent CPC 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks is like a throwback to 2012.

 

[Niko]

Attm, 30F under partly sunny skies and a few flurries flying from time to time.

[CentralNebWeather]

[Andie]

Front rolling through this evening.

 

We had a High of 76* today but temps dropping to 40* tonight and a High mañana of 47*.

Winds out of the NW 15-20 mph.

 

Typical roller coaster for us.

[Madtown]

[Jaycee]

CHICAGOOOO. What happened to you why are we now the brown grass advisory place lol I did not move here for this! Lol jk. This has been the most boring start to a winter I can remember in a long time though.

[Beltrami Island]

How thick is the ice up there?

To be honest I have no idea. I'd guess most of the resorts on lake of the woods opened up for the winter this weekend for ATVs and snowmobiles. They typically "open" the second weekend of December. Actually ice conditions are always all over the map this early. 2-10" would be my guess.

[SE Wisconsin]

I agree. As exciting as November snow events are, they always seem to throw a wrench in December/ early January snowfall. Best to have the snow start in December. I think the last time a snowy November continued throughout the entire winter here in SE WI. was 07-08.

Several weeks ago JB at Weather Bell documented several past winters that started out with a cold and snowy November only to flip to a mild and dry December.  Unfortunately, seems to be a recurring phenomenon around here the past few years.  But, in almost all those years January and February ended up being cold and snowy.  At least  we have something to look forward to.  Can't come soon enough for me.

[Niko]

Cool shot of our southern snowstorm 

[Clinton]

Cool shot of our southern snowstorm 

Are you going to be able to pull any of it your way?

[jlp]

Several weeks ago JB at Weather Bell documented several past winters that started out with a cold and snowy November only to flip to a mild and dry December. Unfortunately, seems to be a recurring phenomenon around here the past few years. But, in almost all those years January and February ended up being cold and snowy. At least we have something to look forward to. Can't come soon enough for me.

Same here! Looking forward to some snow even if it's a couple inches at a crack. Anything is better than bare ground.

[james1976]

First cross country skiers and ice fishermen on the lake this afternoon. Not sure I’d be that brave, but to each their own. Winter lake season has begun.

Hey! What lake(s) are you by? My girlfriend lives right by Vadnais lake.

[hlcater]

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

[GDR]

[Tom]

The trends over the last few days are not looking good for the colder look I was anticipating for the holiday stretch.  The missing link is the lack of a -EPO prior to the Christmas period that would have set up a better pattern for our Sub, however, I'm seeing some signs that post Christmas into the New Year things begin to shift around.  One thing is certain, we are not lacking in the high lat blocking and we need the PAC jet to cooperate.  It does not do so until post Christmas when the expected Split Flow pattern is to develop very late in the month.  I was hopeful it would set up right around or just after the Winter Solstice period but that has been delay...but is it denied???

 

Last night's 00z GEFS precip anomalies for Week 2 certainly are starting to paint an active southern stream to close out the month.  Hopefully the timing of the cold air can produce at least one or two winter storms before the months out.

 

 

 

 

The 00z EPS is showing signs of a Christmas Day storm but it may be a wet one for a lot of us across the Sub except for those farther north.  We'll have to see how the models trend with this one and if there is a Christmas miracle in the cards this year.  The GEFS are also signaling this system as well.

 

[Clinton]

00z EC picking up on several systems.  The first is a Christmas Day storm that looks to effect the eastern half of Neb. and western Iowa as well as Minn.  The second and much stronger storm is one that I have been anticipating on the 26th.  This one looks to effect alot of the same areas.  The 3rd showing up on the 29th associated with an Artic front and it could be a doozy.  This run only gets a very small piece of storm 3, it's mostly out of range.

 

[Clinton]

00z EPS mean.  Looking forward to seeing the models really start painting as the begin to catch on to the blocking.

 

[Tom]

00z EPS mean.  Looking forward to seeing the models really start painting as the begin to catch on to the blocking.

 

 

After a bit of a lull in the pattern, glad to see all the models are dialing in on a very active pattern next week into the New Year that we've been talking about.  Hope the cold presses!

[Tom]

Clinton, how does the EPO look on both the GEFS/EPS???  Does it begin to tank around Christmas??

[Andie]

Cold front moved through and when have 40* at 7 am. Heading for a high of 45*.

Currently some drizzle in the area.

 

We'll have a very chilly week in the 40's with lows at freezing.

[Clinton]

After a bit of a lull in the pattern, glad to see all the models are dialing in on a very active pattern next week into the New Year that we've been talking about.  Hope the cold presses!

New Years Day will be an ice box my friend!  GFS mean showing a lot of the same signals that the EPS is.

 

[Tom]

New Years Day will be an ice box my friend!  GFS mean showing a lot of the same signals that the EPS is.

 

I'm afraid we'll be seeing hard cutters before the colder pattern sets up shop.  Hopefully we can finish off the month with a bang!

[St Paul Storm]

Hey! What lake(s) are you by? My girlfriend lives right by Vadnais lake.

I’m 5 miles due south of Vadnais Lake right down 35E, on Lake McCarrons. Small world!

[badgerwx]

Is it pretty much a given for a brown Christmas for most of us then?

[Clinton]

Is it pretty much a given for a brown Christmas for most of us then?

I think so. 

[CentralNebWeather]

We may be 15-20 degrees above average this weekend.

[GDR]

Upper 40s to low 50s for the ones that Received snow this weekend that Stinks

[CentralNebWeather]

Thinking back in history, I do remember many brown Christmases over the years and some that it was warm enough to wear short sleeved shirts.  I know it happens, but still stinks this year for many of us that were expecting our snow to last or a snowy pattern.  Oh well.

[jaster220]

We'll have to see how the models trend with this one and if there is a Christmas miracle in the cards this year. 

 

I heard the odds are good if you live on 34th 

 

As for the rest of what's being flashed out to the d15 range, yuck my friend! Just yuck! Last winter redux with the Neb up thru MN jack-zone, followed by S Stream systems riding the OH River or N Tennessee route as we have ongoing  . Wishing for d10+ indices to rescue us gets old quickly. Not really upset but wow what a bore for my "cold season hobby".