December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[BrianJK]

might make a run at 60 next week. Very mild air takes hold.

[bud2380]

GFS continues to show the storm on the 27th

[Hawkeye]

It would suck if we got a big post-Xmas storm and it struggled to pull in enough cold air.

 

Edit:  However, it seems like much of the precip west of low should be snow on this map.  I can't imagine there would be a bunch of rain north of the 540 line and west of the low in late December.

 

[Madtown]

[james1976]

[Tom]

might make a run at 60 next week. Very mild air takes hold.

As usual, Skilling and his team over hype the warm up in the forecast.  I don't see us getting close to 60F next Monday...maybe low 50's which will feel balmy after this cold spell.  Forgot what it feels like to wake up in the 10's that past couple nights....Brrr...short-lived cold spell though, Winter is going on a hiatus for the time being.

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies came out today and the warmth has legs....the MJO is not looking good in the extended and cause for concern.  Waters have warmed up considerably around Australia in recent days/weeks.  This is not the data I was looking for in today's run.

 

 

 

Week 2...

 

 

Week 3-4...

 

 

 

 

SST's...

 

[Clinton]

Happy Friday Eve everyone!  Looking through the operational models from last night and this morning, it's pretty clear they drank a big tall glass of suck.  The EPS and GFS means are trending snowier and colder as we finish out the year and into the beginning of next year.  I think we should exercise patience at through the weekend and see how models trend.

 

 

[GDR]

My man T Swails says warm could persist well into January. Not looking good

[westMJim]

Had a official low of +7 (+5 here at my house) before the clouds move in and the temperatures just up. This morning the temperature is up to 15 here at my house. At this time there is 2"of snow on the ground.

[CentralNebWeather]

Happy Friday Eve everyone!  Looking through the operational models from last night and this morning, it's pretty clear they drank a big tall glass of suck.  The EPS and GFS means are trending snowier and colder as we finish out the year and into the beginning of next year.  I think we should exercise patience at through the weekend and see how models trend.

 

 

I would take those and run with it.  I guess the positive is that when the weather may get more active is getting towards the end of the holiday travel season.

[Madtown]

Lol this warm period has been modeled for a while now. Also, the colder/stormier pattern for late month has been modeled for a while as well. Nothing new or pushed down the road.

This warm up was supposed to be a three maybe 4 day thaw....I am now in the 40's through the 29th!

[CentralNebWeather]

Preparing for final tests here at our High School today and tomorrow before a long Christmas Break.  Looking out my upstairs window that faces north it looks like a winter wonderland.  You look out the windows that face south and there is little snow left.   The power of the shaded north side.

[Clinton]

Finally a good sign for some real cold as we close out the year. 

However the Euro tells a different story

I strongly favor the GFS and look for the models to go that way.

[Stacsh]

This is the way. 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has 44 here today, but the locals and NWS have been reluctant to put us over 40.  Our wind is from the south, but it has to travel over the snowpack to reach us so colder may be the way to go.  It's still in the 20s at the moment.

[Beltrami Island]

Finally a good sign for some real cold as we close out the year. 

 

However the Euro tells a different story

 

I strongly favor the GFS and look for the models to go that way.

 

Well, I may like what the GFS shows, but I expect the Euro to win out.

[MIKEKC]

Made it all the way up to 37 degrees yesterday in my area of KC, but, the snow pack remained quite dense due to the low sun angle. My north and east facing of the house still has 4 inches on the ground. Didn’t really melt at all.

 

We’re 35 now heading towards 42 or 44 today, should see a lot more melting.

 

Clinton, I love your positive energy, but, the GFS has been flashing extreme cold since late November and we have been above average on temps all month.(except for this 5 day period of below with snow) We’re really going to go above average after the next 10 days complete. Likely finish Dec. +3 degrees or so.

 

I hope the GFS is right. Please!!!

[MIKEKC]

Storm is there on the GFS one week from tomorrow, so, we have a dog hunting.

 

Come on cold, I don’t know if you know this, but, you are suppose to show up in Dec. We gave you 8 months off!

[GDR]

Is this system part of the cycle?

[bud2380]

GFS on the 27th.  It weakens dramatically as it heads east.

 

[Clinton]

Is this system part of the cycle?

As far as I can remember there should only be 2, maybe Tom can chime in about this run.

[bud2380]

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS with multiple storms from Christmas onward.  I'm sure changes of intensity and amounts will occur, but at least there is some storminess.  Might be all different forms of precipitation, however, depending on location, time of day, track, etc.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS through 240 hours for fun purposes only.  

[CentralNebWeather]

12Z GFS through 240 hours for fun purposes only, instantweathermaps site. 

[bud2380]

Another big storm showing up 2 days later on the GFS on the 29th, but once again a lot of warm air out in front.  

[Niko]

It got quite chilly last night. Temps bottomed out at 4F. If there was snowcover, temps could have easily dropped below 0F. Anyways, sunny skies attm w a temp of 21F. The warm-up expected next week is not as mild as it was showing yesterday. Now forecasted to be in the low to mid 40s at best for highs, whereas, upper 40s to near 50F was being advertised just yesterday or so ago.

[Niko]

Finally a good sign for some real cold as we close out the year. 

However the Euro tells a different story

I strongly favor the GFS and look for the models to go that way.

Go GFS, go GFS, go GFS, go GFS..........

[Stacsh]

It got quite chilly last night. Temps bottomed out at 4F. If there was snowcover, temps could have easily dropped below 0F. Anyways, sunny skies attm w a temp of 21F. The warm-up expected next week is not as mild as it was showing yesterday. Now forecasted to be in the low to mid 40s at best for highs, whereas, upper 40s to near 50F was being advertised just yesterday or so ago.

I think the warm will "over-achieve"  Could be even warmer in Michigan post-xmas.  

 

GFS overdoes the cold, until it doesn't and gets right once every other month.  

[Niko]

I think the warm will "over-achieve"  Could be even warmer in Michigan post-xmas.  

 

GFS overdoes the cold, until it doesn't and gets right once every other month.  

Good possibility and will not be surprised if temps are extremely mild (50F+)

 

Usually does, but hoping for a Christmas miracle that it is correct. 

[MIKEKC]

4 rain storms in KC in the next 15 days...LOL

 

Don’t you do that!

[GDR]

[GDR]

Through 384hrs

[Minny_Weather]

Weren't we all yelling "winter cancel" during the last 2 pathetic Decembers?

[jaster220]

My man T Swails says warm could persist well into January. Not looking good

 

Ofc, a lot (most) of us have already had more snow this Dec than during all of last, so I can't do any of the following:

1. Say that this is an exact copy of last season.

2. Complain that this is just as bad as last December. 

3. Say that this was yet another snow-less holiday season since I currently have snow OTG.

 

However, if that bolded part verifies, just remember what I said about seasons coming in pairs, for better or for worse! 

[jaster220]

Weren't we all yelling "winter cancel" during the last 2 pathetic Decembers?

 

It was WINTER CANCEL around here for 7 or 8 stinking weeks one year ago! From Nov 30th until the storm on Jan 18th. Not sure what point you were making tho tbh 

[Jaycee]

It’s winter cancel though, atleast so far. Such a boring year here!

[Clinton]

Go GFS, go GFS, go GFS, go GFS..........

The CMC of all things has some legs.

 

[Niko]

The CMC of all things has some legs.

 

Go CMS, go, CMS, go CMS, go CMS.........