December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Stacsh]

Certainly an end to December to remember here in Michigan. I’ll remember playing basketball and taking warm sunny walks before (during?) Xmas. glad weather watching is a hobby and not my paid profession because lots of fails. The GFS needs to be thrown in the recycle bin. Just looking at that model and believing anything it puts out is fools errand.

[jaster220]

Trust me...I am thinking about it. Michigan is too boring for me. I am a city boy..always have and always will be. I come from the badside of the hood.....

 

Tbh..I have been here now for several years and I only saw 1 real Winter and that was 2013-14. The rest were a joke. Unless you go up north, then, that is a whole different story.

 

Can't imagine anyone from your background being satisfied/happy in a midwest city other than perhaps Chicago. Both coasts are such a different flavor. Wife had been asking to go to the New York International market in W. Bloomfield so we went today. Car thermo said 53F as we were heading east. I see Marshall was at 51F for a couple hours. Surprisingly, still patches of snow on the south side of the freeway just north of Ann Arbor. More impressive are the north facing houses on the street just south of mine. Their front yards still had complete snow cover after these past two hot days. Low sun angle and low DP's for the win. Would never happen with the same temps in late Feb or March. 

[Grizzcoat]

From PP on AccuWX (seeing it very well imo)

 

MODELING FAVORS COLDER LATE 11-15 DAY INTO 16-20 DAY: Very hesitant to jump all over this right now. Most modeling showing colder air from the Plains on east during this period, but teleconnections and MJO phase not supporting idea. Big concern that models will trend warmer with later runs.

The GFS ensemble is now stalling the MJO in phase 6, out over the Pacific. This would keep milder air across the eastern half of the nation late 11- to 15-day period and early 16- to 20-day period, which is not shown by most of the modeling right now (colder). We need to watch this carefully, the trends next few days.

 

[Grizzcoat]

Phase 6 is blowtorch for this time of year--

[jaster220]

Certainly an end to December to remember here in Michigan. I’ll remember playing basketball and taking warm sunny walks before (during?) Xmas. glad weather watching is a hobby and not my paid profession because lots of fails. The GFS needs to be thrown in the recycle bin. Just looking at that model and believing anything it puts out is fools errand.

 

Was 65F on Christmas of '82, and not much colder two years later. It has been even milder, but this kind of weather has another 9 months to thrive in. We need winter during winter. Seems we've all but lost December as a winter month around here anymore. 

[jaster220]

Phase 6 is blowtorch for this time of year--

590x1132_12190144_screen-shot-2019-12-18-at-8.36.41-pm.png

 

Gonna repeat last season, almost to a "T" 

[jaster220]

Gfs looks interesting

 

It's trending to more of a slider.

 

Until the Euro even remotely gives a head nod, it's safe money to be skeptical of what it's been showing. Not trying to dampen anyone's mood, but wow did it fail miserably with that OHV slider a week ago. Had it all amped and north until it folded like a house of cards. 

[SE Wisconsin]

From PP on AccuWX (seeing it very well imo)

 

MODELING FAVORS COLDER LATE 11-15 DAY INTO 16-20 DAY: Very hesitant to jump all over this right now. Most modeling showing colder air from the Plains on east during this period, but teleconnections and MJO phase not supporting idea. Big concern that models will trend warmer with later runs.

The GFS ensemble is now stalling the MJO in phase 6, out over the Pacific. This would keep milder air across the eastern half of the nation late 11- to 15-day period and early 16- to 20-day period, which is not shown by most of the modeling right now (colder). We need to watch this carefully, the trends next few days.

 

590x590_12220234_mjo.jpg

If this MJO forecast verifies, winter is indeed over - at least until late January or February.  How depressing!

[Grizzcoat]

^- other than -1F in early NOV here at DSM- it never really begun.

[jaster220]

12z Euro mean and ensembles

 

 

So, does the Euro have a storm or not? Keep seeing posts that it doesn't but looks like some snow on these maps. Is it like days later or something? 

[jaster220]

Until the Euro even remotely gives a head nod, it's safe money to be skeptical of what it's been showing. Not trying to dampen anyone's mood, but wow did it fail miserably with that OHV slider a week ago. Had it all amped and north until it folded like a house of cards. 

 

Had a chance to loop the 12z. It's drastically different from the GFS in timing and amount of cold. Otherwise, they both have rain for SMI with maybe a bit of back side snow fwiw. I think there's room to get better, but lack of cold means we would likely be trading less rain for less over all strength (as a slider vs cutter). 

[Clinton]

So, does the Euro have a storm or not? Keep seeing posts that it doesn't but looks like some snow on these maps. Is it like days later or something? 

The Euro ensembles are very very slowly trending toward some snow.  The Euro is most likely holding the energy back to long and the GFS is a little to quick kicking it out.  I may miss on this one but until I am out of time I'm sticking with a sizable snowstorm from the central plains to the Great Lakes.  I am probably on my own and I'm ok with that. 

[jaster220]

Bastardi had a nice and informative Saturday Summary. Goes into quite a bit of depth on the current MJO/SOI situation. He's also still bullish on his analog set. Says it called for a cold Nov and warm Dec and holiday period. Only exception would be 2013.

[jaster220]

The Euro ensembles are very very slowly trending toward some snow.  The Euro is most likely holding the energy back to long and the GFS is a little to quick kicking it out.  I may miss on this one but until I am out of time I'm sticking with a sizable snowstorm from the central plains to the Great Lakes.  I am probably on my own and I'm ok with that. 

 

Thx for answering bud! I too think there will be something in the 28th to 1st window. Can only hope it reaches the threshold of "storm" 

[Clinton]

Thx for answering bud! I too think there will be something in the 28th to 1st window. Can only hope it reaches the threshold of "storm" 

I'm very confident in a storm, it's the lack of cold showing up as of now that has me scratching my head.

[jaster220]

I'm very confident in a storm, it's the lack of cold showing up as of now that has me scratching my head.

 

By storm, I meant a snowstorm, not just a SLP or system. Guess I wasn't too clear on that 

[Clinton]

By storm, I meant a snowstorm, not just a SLP or system. Guess I wasn't too clear on that 

LOL I knew what ya meant.

[GDR]

Wow gfs looks toasty through most of the run maybe a cold cool day

[jaster220]

53F and sunny in my grid here tomorrow. yay! 

[jaster220]

I'm very confident in a storm, it's the lack of cold showing up as of now that has me scratching my head.

 

5 years ago this week we were also hopeful for a holiday miracle. In one of it's most epic GreatFantasyStorms runs, the GFS flashed this:

 

 

Talk about excitement, right? Wrong!  Culprit? Lack of cold air coming south from Canada. The merger of N and S storms never really came together. Had 1/2" on my deck overnight Christmas Eve that literally melted by 8 am Christmas morning! 

 

So, in summary, it can always be worse. And, actually, this past week's mini-storm here was great by comparison. 

[jaster220]

LOL I knew what ya meant.

 

Uhmm..nobody posting the ICON? 12z got amped and wanted to nail WMI pretty nicely. 

 

[Niko]

Man, temps are really plummeting outside. Already down to 37F. Going to around 30F tanite.

[Niko]

Tomorrows temps will soar in the 50s w ample sunshine. I wonder if any pockets of 60s will show up or even approaching 60F. I think there is a slim shot someone does get close. As a dry CF arrives tomorrow nite, temps fall into the 20s (which is back to average). Tuesdays highs will be in the 30s b4 warming back up again into the 40s and possibly near 50F by the weekend. Eventually, it turns much colder by the following week.

[jaster220]

15 yrs ago tomorrow, the great OHV Pre-Christmas storm was winding down. What a beast for those further south (just got grazed here but 6" over towards Ann Arbor). 

 

What a Christmas memory/story these Peeps had:

 

A section of I-64 in southwestern Indiana had hundreds of stranded travelers along a 25- mile section for more than 24 hours. The Indiana National Guard, the prime relief force sent to help, used helicopters and Humvees to rescue stranded travelers and to take them to local hotels, churches, and rest shelters. Those same travelers then had to be taken back to their vehicles 2-3 days later. This interstate was not totally cleared until December 28.

[Grizzcoat]

GFS still has system for next weekend. Too bad it's the GFS and too bad it's next weekend.

 

Does anyone have access to accuracy of the GFS compared to other models? It's something like 120 HR forecasts of the 500MB level and graded. Seen it before but not finding it now.

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

A second short wave fragment moves along a similar path during
Thursday which acts to reinforce warm air even more but which also
brings a stronger cold front by Friday. This marks the first sign of
a changing large scale pattern showing up in extended model
solutions for next weekend. Deterministic runs exhibit increasing
uncertainty in solutions on the upper air pattern that range from
hints of a full latitude trough over the Midwest in the GFS to a
pronounced rex block holding in the Canadian. The NAEFS mean 500 mb
height supports more of an omega block and a stronger northern
stream into the Great Lakes. This supports passage of a front during
Friday to start a downward temperature trend that continues with an
additional front sometime during next weekend that takes reading
down closer to normal by Sunday.

[Clinton]

00z GFS and ICON are almost a perfect match.  GFS is just a little colder and a tad further north.

[Grizzcoat]

[jaster220]

0z GFS looking to be back north..sigh. 

 

Last year at New Years, NMI got a nice hit. Wouldn't surprise me if they see deja-vu

 

[Grizzcoat]

GFS is going to string me along until mid-week and than I get sober.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019122300&fh=156&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

[jaster220]

00z GFS and ICON are almost a perfect match.  GFS is just a little colder and a tad further north.

 

  ICON keeps it further south up here. Doesn't combine the energy that's north of the Lakes. 

 

[jaster220]

GFS is going to string me along until mid-week and than I get sober.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019122300&fh=156&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs

 

You know it! 

[Grizzcoat]

In the following song -- "Tito is the Euro" and "Johnny is the GFS" and Rosa is me.

 

[Grizzcoat]

UKMET loses system between hrs 120 and 144. Not a good sign for the Euro picking it back up.

[Clinton]

00z GFS mean through next weekend.

 

 

[Niko]

A True Blizzard!

 

https://twitter.com/NWSReno/status/1208863677056598017

[Niko]

Attm, 35F under clear skies.

[Grizzcoat]

Euro contains no storm a week from now (at least for most of the readers here) and continues the utterly boring and abv avg temps into Jan. Someone said a week or so ago that this DEC couldn't be worse than last. It's pretty close and last DEC really sucked so things are no bueno. ***Edit*** I just checked, I would say it's worse here for DSM. This DEC is going to be at least 2-3F warmer than last. 2.5" of snow this month- 1.2" last DEC- I say this DEC is worse because of the potential that has flunked badly.

[Clinton]

Last nights EC was very close to a big snow storm next weekend, just a tad to warm

 

[Clinton]

6z GFS