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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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Everyone talking about a big rain storm after Christmas.  Hard to get excited about a big storm 8-10 days away with temps in the 40's.  But I guess that's all there is right now.  

Yep, pretty quiet weatherwise. Although, yesterday I did see a very, very, veryyyyyyy old snowpile in one of the pkg-lots. I was shocked to see it still there.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yep, pretty quiet weatherwise. Although, yesterday I did see a very, very, veryyyyyyy old snowpile in one of the pkg-lots. I was shocked to see it still there.

We have some of the same piles here from our pre Thanksgiving storm.  The piles are as hard as a rock, as I walk past them in our school parking lot daily.  They will survive and hopefully will be added to in the weeks to come

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We have some of the same piles here from our pre Thanksgiving storm.  The piles are as hard as a rock, as I walk past them in our school parking lot daily.  They will survive and hopefully will be added to in the weeks to come

I can see these piles being there for quite sometimes, until we get a real warmup come late Spring.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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The fight between the Euro & GFS in terms of the MJO will have big implications for next weeks storm system.  Over the last couple runs, the Euro is backing off Phase 6 and mainly staying in the "Null" phase while the GFS says Phase 6 all day.  If the Euro is right, we won't see to much ridging in the East and allow for a "bowling ball" system to track slowly east across the Central CONUS.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

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The 12Z GFS multiple snowstorms for the Central Plains have disappeared like a cheeseburger off the grill in our house.  Hard to believe from the 12Z GFS yesterday till today there can be this big of a change.  We'll see if it comes back or not.  If it disappears from the 12Z Euro today, I'll assume our holidays will be quiet in the part of the country.

Good case of the GFS being well... the GFS

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I'm only missing 20" of snow from yesterday's 12Z GFS run until today's.  Boy GFS, I could make these bad predictions and I'm not a meteorologist.  

We're talking about forecasts 8-10 days out. To me you should expect changes sometimes drastic from run to run. But the second there's a change on a GFS model run, than everyone starts saying the GFS is wrong or horrible, etc. The GFS also runs 4x a day. so we could see more variances between runs.

When the Euro loses the storm everyone says, well I guess there's not going to be a storm now. I think we all show our bias towards winter storms every time that happens. There's still a storm on the GFS, it's just not phased or as strong. It actually strengthens east of us/and there's not enough cold air with the system.

Heck even yesterday Clinton showed how one of the indexes was the complete opposite between the Euro and the GFS. The GFS was the one we all want for cold and the Euro was the opposite. Now today the Euro switched to negative like the GFS, so I guess the GFS was the right one then(unless the index switches again tomorrow)?

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Does it bug anyone else when a tv meteorologist says, "Temperatures will be 15-20º above where they should be"?  The average temp is just that.... the average.  Wild temp swings are normal, especially this time of year.  It can easily be 45º and just as easily be 15º in late December.  There is no such thing as a "should be" temp.  I cringe when I hear that.  Even Jim Cantore said that this morning.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The fight between the Euro & GFS in terms of the MJO will have big implications for next weeks storm system.  Over the last couple runs, the Euro is backing off Phase 6 and mainly staying in the "Null" phase while the GFS says Phase 6 all day.  If the Euro is right, we won't see to much ridging in the East and allow for a "bowling ball" system to track slowly east across the Central CONUS.

 

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

 

 

 I don't know about you, but it seems like it has been ages where I can go out and do some last minute Christmas shopping while it's snowing or at least have snow OTG.  You sorta loose that "holiday spirit" without the snow.

 

Oh buddy! I've been thinking about how fortunate I was to get this week's nice hit of snow. It's really boosted my holiday cheer-o-meter. I also thought about you and how you've been missed even worse with nada around Chicago Land currently. There's some fresh parking lot piles upwards of 8+ feet that will be around a while despite day time highs soaring. I'd even go so far as to say that this surprise LES event saved my wx sanity, lol. Anyways, pretty sure you will get hit in due time. Just got to keep hope alive a bit longer. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, pretty quiet weatherwise. Although, yesterday I did see a very, very, veryyyyyyy old snowpile in one of the pkg-lots. I was shocked to see it still there.

 

There's still some surviving around Jackson too. Not sure about Marshall. If they were there, the Tuesday night's snow was plowed on top of them and they look nice and fresh again.  :)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The Canadian is flopping around, too.  This run continues the boring split flow into the new year.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

Thanks for posting this Clinton.  I'll accept this. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There's still some surviving around Jackson too. Not sure about Marshall. If they were there, the Tuesday night's snow was plowed on top of them and they look nice and fresh again.  :)

Tis the season amigo ehh! :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Currently at 31F under cloudy skies w a flurry or two flying around.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Lots of things to share from the EC.  2 big storms on this run that fit the LRC (exact track still TBD) with enough cold air to produce big snows.  The first big storm shows up on the 29th as a cutter that gets blocked up and smashes Nebraska then turns east.

1577642400-NpLw6KXatT4.png

It leaves this for accumulations.

1577815200-ySdlt1GctTs.png

2nd storm shows up on Jan3.  It takes a bowling ball path across the central and southern plains.

1578074400-9NOMEdQPeuk.png

It leaves this for accumulations.  I think this would be the first snow for Oklahoma.

1578139200-hQj3kP3cyxE.png

And at long last it has the Artic air that I have been looking for, even if it is 4 days late lol.

1578139200-eevK2fkr9l8.png

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12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

Hey Niko. Maybe we get one?  Tbh, I see Clinton's Euro ENS maps and can't help but feel storm #1 hits just north, and storm #2 looks just like the suppressed event last week that whiffed south. Confidence in this winter delivering big storms here is not strong. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hey Niko. Maybe we get one?  Tbh, I see Clinton's Euro ENS maps and can't help but feel storm #1 hits just north, and storm #2 looks just like the suppressed event last week that whiffed south. Confidence in this winter delivering big storms here is not strong. 

Hope so amigo...its only a matter of time till Winter strikes again. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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tracks not set but looking at one to the north and one to the south. Glad we had the Halloween storm!

 

Yup. Big storms are AWOL thru the middle of our Sub. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Hope so amigo...its only a matter of time till Winter strikes again. :)

 

Winter struck here this week. But it would be nice to get in on all the "big storms" that we're constantly hearing/talking about.. ;)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice week of action...out west in the "rare" western trough

 

20191220 hazards_d3_7.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lots of things to share from the EC. 2 big storms on this run that fit the LRC (exact track still TBD) with enough cold air to produce big snows. The first big storm shows up on the 29th as a cutter that gets blocked up and smashes Nebraska then turns east.

1577642400-NpLw6KXatT4.png

It leaves this for accumulations.

1577815200-ySdlt1GctTs.png

2nd storm shows up on Jan3. It takes a bowling ball path across the central and southern plains.

1578074400-9NOMEdQPeuk.png

It leaves this for accumulations. I think this would be the first snow for Oklahoma.

1578139200-hQj3kP3cyxE.png

And at long last it has the Artic air that I have been looking for, even if it is 4 days late lol.

1578139200-eevK2fkr9l8.png

cold air that far south I don’t think so
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Lots of things to share from the EC. 2 big storms on this run that fit the LRC (exact track still TBD) with enough cold air to produce big snows. The first big storm shows up on the 29th as a cutter that gets blocked up and smashes Nebraska then turns east.

1577642400-NpLw6KXatT4.png

It leaves this for accumulations.

1577815200-ySdlt1GctTs.png

2nd storm shows up on Jan3. It takes a bowling ball path across the central and southern plains.

1578074400-9NOMEdQPeuk.png

It leaves this for accumulations. I think this would be the first snow for Oklahoma.

1578139200-hQj3kP3cyxE.png

And at long last it has the Artic air that I have been looking for, even if it is 4 days late lol.

1578139200-eevK2fkr9l8.png

Thank you, Clinton, for keeping me in the loop up there buddy! Always greatly appreciated.

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