December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[OKwx2k4]

Us southern folk have to stick together lol!

Yes we do!

[Clinton]

Please, Lord....make this colder and snowier.

 

 

gfs_z500a_us_35.png

It's good that the GFS and Euro are showing a similar storm even if it is a long way out.

[MIKEKC]

The storm is there, obviously the track will change 40 more times, but the cold is lacking.

 

Clinton, should the storm hit KC next Sunday and have a winter side, the Chiefs could play in snow again. Last Sunday is the first time I have watched a Chiefs game with heavy snow falling the whole game. I don’t believe I have ever seen that before. Can u remember the last time. Was there one?

[Clinton]

The storm is there, obviously the track will change 40 more times, but the cold is lacking.

 

Clinton, should the storm hit KC next Sunday and have a winter side, the Chiefs could play in snow again. Last Sunday is the first time I have watched a Chiefs game with heavy snow falling the whole game. I don’t believe I have ever seen that before. Can u remember the last time. Was there one?

The closes I can remeber was the playoff game last year against the Colts but most of that fell before the game.  I agree it was awesome and I sure hope we get a repeat a week from Sunday.

[GDR]

[james1976]

[Hawkeye]

Does it bug anyone else when a tv meteorologist says, "Temperatures will be 15-20º above where they should be"?  The average temp is just that.... the average.  Wild temp swings are normal, especially this time of year.  It can easily be 45º and just as easily be 15º in late December.  There is no such thing as a "should be" temp.  I cringe when I hear that.  Even Jim Cantore said that this morning.

 

Quad Cities NWS just tweeted this...

 

"We've been talking a lot lately about how well above normal we're expected to be temperature-wise for Christmas. Now here's a look at where we SHOULD be."

 

They even emphasized "should".  

[Mi_Matthew]

Quad Cities NWS just tweeted this...

"We've been talking a lot lately about how well above normal we're expected to be temperature-wise for Christmas. Now here's a look at where we SHOULD be."

Eh, that doesn't bother me. While I agree, a "should be" temperature is nonsensical during transitory months, i.e. fall and spring, it would also be impractical to totally ignore climatological norms. Maybe a common ground would be to use standard deviation. Anything within +/- 1 standard deviation shouldn't be noteworthy, just my opinion.

 

Furthermore, one could say they "normally" have x amount of snow OTG on x date of the calendar. To differ significantly from that amount is still noteworthy.

[jaster220]

  3rd day of nice snow cover and I'm enjoying every minute of it. It's not deep but that's ok. The cold wave prior has made a huge difference in helping it stick around against 35F and sunny. Even at my work where they had an inch or less I was surprised how much was retained. Ofc tomorrow we get even warmer into the 40s so time's running out. But after going 3+ weeks without this has been great. 

[Hawkeye]

Eh, that doesn't bother me. While I agree, a "should be" temperature is nonsensical during transitory months, i.e. fall and spring, it would also be impractical to totally ignore climatological norms. Maybe a common ground would be to use standard deviation. Anything within +/- 1 standard deviation shouldn't be noteworthy, just my opinion.

 

Furthermore, one could say they "normally" have x amount of snow OTG on x date of the calendar. To differ significantly from that amount is still noteworthy.

 

Of course, everyone knows what they mean when they say "should be".  I just think "should" is a poor word to use because it implies we shouldn't be well above or below that temp.  Better choices are "would typically be" and "would normally be", or just stick with "Xº above/below average/normal."

 

None of this is a huge deal.  I just thought I'd bring it up while there is zilch going on.

[BMT]

Never thought of it that way before; but I agree with you.

Of course, everyone knows what they mean when they say "should be". I just think "should" is a poor word to use because it implies we shouldn't be well above or below that temp. Better choices are "would typically be" and "would normally be", or just stick with "Xº above/below average/normal."

 

None of this is a huge deal. I just thought I'd bring it up while there is zilch going on.

[Hawkeye]

The strong cutter is back on the GFS at the end of the month.

 

... and then it drops the arctic hammer a few days later.

[jaster220]

h330 needs to be watched      

 

[jaster220]

The strong cutter is back on the GFS at the end of the month.

 

... and then drops the arctic hammer a few days later.

 

So much for blocking keeping it a bowling ball 

[OmahaSnowFan]

Mid 50s next 3 days here. Might make a run at 60 on Sunday too.

[GDR]

For those worried about a drought it looks like the gfs has a couple of soakers

[GDR]

Chicago gets up to 2 inches of rain

[Clinton]

Last nights Euro was kind of wild, that would be something if that verified in mby.

 

[Minny_Weather]

12z Euro hits Chicago and Meeeshigan.

But of course stays RIGHT above the invisible forcefield that is the state line.

[Clinton]

Last nights EC also showed this for New Years Eve.  This is almost exactly the set up I was expecting when I made the prediction for a storm for the 28th,29th.  I believe this will dig a little further west toward the Texas panhandle.  But it shows the storm in front of a surge of Artic air.

 

[westMJim]

Good morning and welcome to the start of the calendar winter (later today) The start of the “official” winter season will be on the mild side. The little snow we have on the ground will be long gone before Christmas and this year will be the 2^nd Christmas in a row (we did have snow later in the day last year) and the 6^th Christmas in the last 10 that have be green. As the average chances of a white Christmas here at Grand Rapids is at 65% we have not been doing good the last 10. The pattern we are now in looks like a El Nino. And of course it that keeps up there could be a lot less snow and cold this winter we shall see. If so it would not be the first time the CPC (and other long range) guessers have made a mistake. At this time it is clear and 22 here at my house and that is colder than the official 28 at GRR. 

[GDR]

The euro is showing a ton of precipitation But Unfortunately mostly rain during that time frame

[MIKEKC]

Prior to the Veteran’s Day storm, the entire Midwest and Plains had below average temps from the Halloween storm until the V-day storm. Remember all of us talking about how cold the first half of Nov. was.

 

Now, this is cycle two, no matter which length you think, 48 day or 61 day cycle, the cold air is not cycling. It’s a totally different pattern. The LRC did not cycle the same pattern.

 

I know the results won’t be the same each cycle, but the pattern must be. We can’t have a much below temperature pattern in cycle one and then have much above average temps in cycle two and say the LRC knew this and forecasted it.

[Stacsh]

Prior to the Veteran’s Day storm, the entire Midwest and Plains had below average temps from the Halloween storm until the V-day storm. Remember all of us talking about how cold the first half of Nov. was.

 

Now, this is cycle two, no matter which length you think, 48 day or 61 day cycle, the cold air is not cycling. It’s a totally different pattern. The LRC did not cycle the same pattern.

 

I know the results won’t be the same each cycle, but the pattern must be. We can’t have a much below temperature pattern in cycle one and then have much above average temps in cycle two and say the LRC knew this and forecasted it.

 

Way too many variables to predict.  People ignored El Nino.  

[MIKEKC]

Another thing with cycle 2, there will be a huge trough out west for the repeating V-day storm this upcoming weekend, in cycle 1, this storm went up and over a huge ridge on the west coast. So, the storm came from NW Canada. This go around, it’s coming from the deep SW out into the Plains...no ridge there next weekend. How is that a repeating pattern?

 

Am I reading this wrong?

[OKwx2k4]

Way too many variables to predict. People ignored El Nino.

Many did ignore it. It's the only reason I have had the conservative outlook I did. It proved this time to be correct. N.Pac (arctic) and tropics have fallen "out of sync".

 

Aleutian pattern is showing signs of turning favorable again soon, though, so as Tom has said also, winter will return. Not on January 20th this time either.

[Stacsh]

Many did ignore it. It's the only reason I have had the conservative outlook I did. It proved this time to be correct. N.Pac (arctic) and tropics have fallen "out of sync".

 

Aleutian pattern is showing signs of turning favorable again soon, though, so as Tom has said also, winter will return. Not on January 20th this time either.

I agree.  Winter will make an appearance.  But I fear any longevity to anything will be washed away by progressive pattern changes.   

[Stacsh]

Going to be plenty of 50's next week if that post xmas storms keeps cutting.  

[gabel23]

Going to be plenty of 50's next week if that post xmas storms keeps cutting.

Big game today, I’m a big buffalo bills fan and hoping they can pull off the upset against the pats!

[Hawkeye]

12z GFS

 

[GDR]

Don’t get sucked into the gfs!

[jlp]

What's the Euro showing? That's the only model that seems to get it somewhat close.

[Andie]

Question to the forum....

Are we in a Niño, Nina, or Nada? Where are we in terms of Central US affects?

 

Thanks in advance.

[Hawkeye]

Question to the forum....

Are we in a Niño, Nina, or Nada? Where are we in terms of Central US affects?

 

Thanks in advance.

 

We are currently in La Nada.  There is a bit of warmth over by Micronesia, but the rest of the equatorial Pacific is near average.

 

Regarding US effects, others will have to chime in.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro cannot decide what it wants to do with the sw US energy and how it might interact with the northern stream.  It flops around from run to run.

[Stacsh]

Big game today, I’m a big buffalo bills fan and hoping they can pull off the upset against the pats!

My bro -in law is as well. Heading to his house to watch the game. Hoping to keep it civil lol.

[GDR]

[GDR]

[Tom]

Question to the forum....

Are we in a Niño, Nina, or Nada? Where are we in terms of Central US affects?

 

Thanks in advance.

Technically, we are in a La Nada as the ONI index for the trailing 3 month period (SON) was +0.3, however, the atmosphere is behaving like a Modoki Nino!  The latest ENSO 3.4 region is basically near neutral as well...

 

 

The very tail end of this month we start to see the pattern shift post storm.  Winter will come back down south next month.  I'm expecting to see the return of the Long Wave Long Term trough across the central CONUS, similar to the pattern we saw in Oct/Nov.

 

[Niko]

Absolutely gorgeous outside. Sunny skies all day and not a cloud to be found. No wind at all as well. Temps managed to get into the upper 40s (47F) to be exact. Yes, I was playing basketball today in shorts and tank top. Unreal. Had a bottle of cold water to cool me off also. Here we are just a few days away from Christmas. Crazy!