December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Currently at 44F w sunny skies. Clear tanite w lows falling in the 20s.

[Niko]

Going to be plenty of 50's next week if that post xmas storms keeps cutting.  

Monday my area has a really good shot at hitting 50F or better w a ton of sunshine.

[Hawkeye]

It appears we maxed out at 49º this afternoon.  We should reach a few degrees higher tomorrow.  Models show the warmest mid-level air flowing up over us on Monday, but at least the Euro has us a few degrees lower at the surface.  The NWS has been suggesting Monday could soar well into the 50s.

[St Paul Storm]

Topped out at 41F here and now back down to 38. Dew point is only 26 so the snowpack is still pretty solid. Definitely lost a bit but mostly on the concrete surfaces that warmed up in the sun. Tomorrow will be the real test. High of 45 in the point

[jaster220]

Marshall in the morning

 

 

It was already over 40F by that time (11 am) and it appears we topped out at 47F or 48F under strong sun and a SW flow. Thanks to frozen ground and DP's in the 20's we managed to keep quite a bit of snow. 

 

@ SPS - With all the snow you've got, you should be ok with low DP's up there. I won't get a white Christmas, but I got most of the week prior and there will be piles and such to at least look the part. Autumn gonna steal back that week winter stole at Vet's Day last month. 

[Clinton]

18z GFS with a slider that I like, just needs to be a little bit colder and boom.

 

[Niko]

1st week of January looks quite cold. Lets see if we can get a GOM low and shoot up west of the App Mtns during that timeframe.

[Stacsh]

1st week of January looks quite cold. Lets see if we can get a GOM low and shoot up west of the App Mtns during that timeframe.

Looks warmish on the GFS. Has a warm cutter on the 4th. GFS is garbage though and shouldn’t be looked at 5d+ for anything but a laugh.

[Niko]

Looks warmish on the GFS. Has a warm cutter on the 4th. GFS is garbage though and shouldn’t be looked at 5d+ for anything but a laugh.

Nobody knows what will happen weatherwise during that time. We could end up w a blizzard or maybe not. It is all a guessing game and reading off models. Thats all, but it is fun to forecast and try to predict what will happen, whether you are correct or wrong.

[Niko]

Clinton-

 

Do ya have any ensembles to show?  Not that it matters

[GDR]

[Clinton]

Clinton-

 

Do ya have any ensembles to show?  Not that it matters

I will post tonights GFS and EPS ensembles.  Been a busy day lol.

[Andie]

Happy Soltice! 10 hrs of sunshine here today. Days begin to lengthen.

 

High of 51*. Heavy Overcast, no rain. Fog in the morning.

Then clearing and a High of 60*

 

Christmas Day...typical Texas. 69* and Sunny.

[mlgamer]

Hey all! Quick weather update from my house...

 

It didn't snow yesterday; it didn't snow today; it's not supposed to snow tomorrow; the snow we had previously has almost entirely melted.

 

Well, that about covers it! Back to regular programming...

[jaster220]

1st week of January looks quite cold. Lets see if we can get a GOM low and shoot up west of the App Mtns during that timeframe.

 

Not asking much, are we 

[Clinton]

00z ICON has snow still falling at hr 180 and a double barrel low.

 

[Niko]

Not asking much, are we 

Not at all amigo, not sure why Ma Nature has to be so darn stubborn.

[Niko]

NOAA believes a big turn around coming for Jan thru Mar. Shovels and snowthrowers on standby??!!

[Clinton]

00z GFS with a blizzard

 

[Clinton]

12z GFS 

 

[GDR]

Where’s Craig?

[jcwxguy]

12z GFS

 

mean 00z gfs

[snowstorm83]

I fly into LNK the morning of the 29th so if that could hold off 24-36 hours that would be great. But it's the GFS so I'm sure it'll be gone next run. 

[Clinton]

00z GFS mean for next weekends storm.

 

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Where’s Craig?

Posting on his facebook site that OMA is getting 20" next weekend.

[Clinton]

mean 00z gfs

Yes lol guess that means I need to go to bed!

[Madtown]

garbage rainer here

[clintbeed1993]

Welp, EURO and GFS are worlds apart on the storm tonight. Just laughable honestly. Unfortunately the EURO isn't in our favor and it's the one I'd put more stock in based on the GFS's horrid track record lately. Go figure.  Will be interesting to see if there's more consistency in the coming days. Still a few days to get it figured out

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and Euro on not on the same planet post-Xmas.  The Euro continues to be much slower moving the sw US energy eastward, so the northern and southern streams remain split.  The GFS has a monster storm while the Euro has nothing.

[Stormhunter87]

Go gfs go! I want snow when I'm home lol

[Tom]

Welcome to the 1st full day of official astronomical Winter!  If you were out and about yesterday, you couldn't ask for better weather to finish up your holiday shopping. At one point, I had to remind myself it was Christmas bc it felt more like Spring out there.  I literally was sweating and couldn't believe how warm it felt in the sunshine. I'm sure the retailers and shoppers are quite happy and with more of the same today through Tuesday, those cash registers will be ringin'!  I know, I know, we would all like to see some snow during the holidays (esp me) but you gotta admit, it feels darn nice out there! 

 

In the back of my mind, I keep thinking to myself, it's a matter of time before the other shoe drops.  Nature will eventually balance out and like a "pendulum", the Arctic Air will swing back into the lower 48.  Try to enjoy this pleasant weather pattern because in January it will be a distant memory.  All the models are pointing towards the pattern to "snap" back into Winter right around the New year.  

 

If I recall, in some of the legendary winters of the late 70's, there were "pullbacks" in December but I don't think to the extent we are seeing this December.  Maybe some of you history folks can chime in regarding those past years or any other similar Autumn & Winter seasons that seem to show the same flavor as this season.

 

 

As for the late month storm, the GEFS continue to suggest a hard cutter and paint a swath of snow across the central Plains up into the Upper MW and parts of the MW?  Let's see if the models trend more towards a slider.

 

[Clinton]

Big difference between the GFS and EPS means through next weekend. I do favor the GFS in terms of temps, next weekend should be cold. Lets see if they agree on more of a slider today.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:

 

Friday and Saturday...

Forecast uncertainty is high, which includes everything from

temperatures to precipitation amounts and type. The western United

States storm system will eventually move out into the plains, but

models vary greatly on strength and track. The 00Z GFS and 00Z GEM

are more aggressive in quickly moving the closed low into the

plains on a northeasterly track that would bring rain and snow to

our area, and possibly heavy amounts of precipitation. However,

the 00Z ECMWF is slower, warmer, and weakens the system over the

southern plains so that we don`t see much precipitation this far

northwest. It should be noted that the 00Z ECMWF ensembles have

more snowy members with this system for our area than they did

24 hrs ago, but it`s also still less than 50 percent of the

ensemble members that are giving us accumulating snow. So

uncertainty remains high, and those with travel plans on the

weekend of December 28-29 should continue to monitor new forecast

updates as we get closer.

[Clinton]

NWS Hastings morning disco:

 

Friday and Saturday...

Forecast uncertainty is high, which includes everything from

temperatures to precipitation amounts and type. The western United

States storm system will eventually move out into the plains, but

models vary greatly on strength and track. The 00Z GFS and 00Z GEM

are more aggressive in quickly moving the closed low into the

plains on a northeasterly track that would bring rain and snow to

our area, and possibly heavy amounts of precipitation. However,

the 00Z ECMWF is slower, warmer, and weakens the system over the

southern plains so that we don`t see much precipitation this far

northwest. It should be noted that the 00Z ECMWF ensembles have

more snowy members with this system for our area than they did

24 hrs ago, but it`s also still less than 50 percent of the

ensemble members that are giving us accumulating snow. So

uncertainty remains high, and those with travel plans on the

weekend of December 28-29 should continue to monitor new forecast

updates as we get closer.

I think the Euro will change it's tune today.

[CentralNebWeather]

I think the Euro will change it's tune today.

I still trust it the most. GFS and especially the Canadian looks good for many more of us, but I lack faith in those.

[CentralNebWeather]

Been pretty busy the last few days, but my area spot forecast for this weekend is 1-3” Friday night, 1” Saturday, 1-3” Saturday night. We’ll see how this plays out. Hopefully there’s enough cold air around.

[Clinton]

Welcome to the 1st full day of official astronomical Winter!  If you were out and about yesterday, you couldn't ask for better weather to finish up your holiday shopping. At one point, I had to remind myself it was Christmas bc it felt more like Spring out there.  I literally was sweating and couldn't believe how warm it felt in the sunshine. I'm sure the retailers and shoppers are quite happy and with more of the same today through Tuesday, those cash registers will be ringin'!  I know, I know, we would all like to see some snow during the holidays (esp me) but you gotta admit, it feels darn nice out there! 

 

In the back of my mind, I keep thinking to myself, it's a matter of time before the other shoe drops.  Nature will eventually balance out and like a "pendulum", the Arctic Air will swing back into the lower 48.  Try to enjoy this pleasant weather pattern because in January it will be a distant memory.  All the models are pointing towards the pattern to "snap" back into Winter right around the New year.  

 

If I recall, in some of the legendary winters of the late 70's, there were "pullbacks" in December but I don't think to the extent we are seeing this December.  Maybe some of you history folks can chime in regarding those past years or any other similar Autumn & Winter seasons that seem to show the same flavor as this season.

 

 

As for the late month storm, the GEFS continue to suggest a hard cutter and paint a swath of snow across the central Plains up into the Upper MW and parts of the MW?  Let's see if the models trend more towards a slider.

 

I like that #10 

[jaster220]

Big difference between the GFS and EPS means through next weekend. I do favor the GFS in terms of temps, next weekend should be cold. Lets see if they agree on more of a slider today.

 

 

What big differences? They look very similar to my eyes other than KS/NE amounts. Track looks pretty well set wrt who will get a storm outta this. Now just a matter of strength and timing being settled. 

 

This continues..sigh

 

[Clinton]

What big differences? They look very similar to my eyes other than KS/NE amounts. Track looks pretty well set wrt who will get a storm outta this. Now just a matter of strength and timing being settled. 

 

This continues..sigh

 

nsm_depth_2019022605_National.jpg

Ya I should have been more specific a lot of the EPS ensembles don't have a storm or have a rain storm.

[Niko]

Beautiful sunny morning outside w temps at 31F. Highs today in the upper 40s to near 50. Tomorrow calls for more 50s, possibly mid to upper 50s and even more 50s by Saturday b4 we start cooling off by the following week. Tbh, I am starting to get used to this nice mild weather.