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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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I like that #10  :D

 

 

As for the late month storm, the GEFS continue to suggest a hard cutter and paint a swath of snow across the central Plains up into the Upper MW and parts of the MW?  Let's see if the models trend more towards a slider.

 

If the Euro was showing even a remote hint of a slider, I'd be more excited for the chance that #10 could happen. Until then, it's looking like wash, rinse, repeat of the Nino style 2019. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Beautiful sunny morning outside w temps at 31F. Highs today in the upper 40s to near 50. Tomorrow calls for more 50s, possibly mid to upper 50s and even more 50s by Saturday b4 we start cooling off by the following week. Tbh, I am starting to get used to this nice mild weather.

 

:lol: You need to move back to NYC and take this stuff with you.  :rolleyes: For a native Michigander, this is the pits! (at Christmas)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If I recall, in some of the legendary winters of the late 70's, there were "pullbacks" in December but I don't think to the extent we are seeing this December.  Maybe some of you history folks can chime in regarding those past years or any other similar Autumn & Winter seasons that seem to show the same flavor as this season.

 

Looking at KBTL data for Dec's of 1976/77/78, you are correct in that all (3) featured at least a mini torch-off of early month snow cover. 1977 even hit 51F on the 16th and had as little as 1" on the 25th. Only 1977 did NOT have 1" depth or better every day of the month! (24 days) The biggest difference is how much MORE snow cover days every one of those Decembers had vs this year. Like night and day really. But, as we know, the big picture pattern was much more OHV centric than this era. Last winter wasn't at all focused in the Lwr Lakes. And this winter needs to turn a corner quickly or it will end up being the same. 

 

EDIT - Unless something changes drastically with the late-month storm, KBTL will have a mere (5) days with 1"+ OTG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Storms and cold keep getting pushed farther down the road. Now the new year, before it was the 27th, before that the 21st....sick feeling in my stomach about this winter.

 

Pretty much the theme the last several winters.  Just wait 2 more weeks, 2 more weeks, 2 more weeks.....  Just keep calling for cold and snow and eventually it'll come to fruition - even if it's not until February and only for 1 week.

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Storms and cold keep getting pushed farther down the road. Now the new year, before it was the 27th, before that the 21st....sick feeling in my stomach about this winter.

 

Rough timing for Pure Michigan's new tourist slogan "Let's Winter"  :( 

 

Pretty much the theme the last several winters.  Just wait 2 more weeks, 2 more weeks, 2 more weeks.....  Just keep calling for cold and snow and eventually it'll come to fruition - even if it's not until February and only for 1 week.

 

You got Feb?  :lol:  My chart says I had slightly above avg snow last Feb, but when each event is followed shortly by mid-50's it never felt like it. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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12z GFS...certainly doesn't have that hard cutter look...

 

That's big progress bud. I'd like to see you N IL folks score if any way possible. Such track might mean decent LES on the back side for here. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:lol: You need to move back to NYC and take this stuff with you.  :rolleyes: For a native Michigander, this is the pits! (at Christmas)

Trust me...I am thinking about it. Michigan is too boring for me. ;) I am a city boy..always have and always will be. I come from the badside of the hood.....

 

Tbh..I have been here now for several years and I only saw 1 real Winter and that was 2013-14. The rest were a joke. Unless you go up north, then, that is a whole different story.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like euro is gonna be another dud. Energy is deeper in the SW(relative to GFS) and there’s a 1027 high over Missouri. Too far south. If this is gonna be a system the high needs to be farther to the north or this won’t have a chance.

2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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People are outside playing ball, golfing and I swear I saw 3 people today watering their property (although, not sure what the heck they could actually water at this time of the year, but whateva) and I could go on and on. What a spectacular weekend weatherwise this has been so far. Wow! Today I am actually thinking of replacing my batteries on all of my outdoor lights. Perhaps, do some other outdoor activities as well or work on the house (I just hate climbing up the latter....UGH!). We all know this type of weather will not last forever this time of the year.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Cedar Rapids has reached 50 degrees. It feels very nice outside with a south wind. I have windows open at home. 

 

I am actually hoping that we end up on the warm side of this storm for next weekend. Since it's not going to be a white christmas here, I am fine with snow holding off until January. We have not had any mesurable rain here in the month of December so it would be nice if we end up on the warm side of the storm. The GFS last night had us on the warm side of the storm.

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Cedar Rapids has reached 50 degrees. It feels very nice outside with a south wind. I have windows open at home.

 

I am actually hoping that we end up on the warm side of this storm for next weekend. Since it's not going to be a white christmas here, I am fine with snow holding off until January. We have not had any mesurable rain here in the month of December so it would be nice if we end up on the warm side of the storm. The GFS last night had us on the warm side of the storm.

I agree 100%In fact once we get past Christmas I wouldn’t mind rain here on out because we’re low on moisture.
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10-12 days ago the Euro showed what is going on today. The GFS showed cold/snow. 10-12 days from now will likely be the Euro being right. Again.

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Hit 53 degrees here today in my neighborhood, with plenty of bright and warm sunshine this afternoon. 

 

Took advantage of the beautiful weather to hit the park with my kids, and play some basketball with them outside on the courts... not a bad way to spend a Sunday in mid-to-late December at all in my book. 

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Yep, pattern has been a blow torch this month and it will finish that way.

 

Even with the modeled storm this up coming weekend, the snow side falls in 29-33 degree air for most.

 

Hopefully the data is wrong on the lack of cold in the pattern.

 

Enjoying the nice weather but prefer to have a snow pack and cold temps.

 

Go Chiefs!

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