Jump to content

December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

Recommended Posts

There is no sugar coating it, this blow torch is for real and it has some legs...mid 50's in the grid for today through Thursday.  Meantime, the trend in the GEFS seems to be losing the snow as it heads east and more of a typical Spring-like cutoff low pressure system tracking across the heartland where most of the snow falls in the Plains states.

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_210.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the Polar Vortex started off the month in a weakened state, nature has decided to show us who's boss as the PV re-intensified over the Pole in a dramatic fashion.

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

pole10_nh.gif

 

 

 

What in the world has happened to our Blocking???? While the Sun continues to Sleep with 40 straight days of spotless days, will we eventually see these impacts?? Time will tell, as I sit here both stunned and humbled by the predictability of the modeling and the reality that nature always shows who's the Boss.

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 40 days

2019 total: 277 days (78%)

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are back from a short trip up to Bay City. Had a nice time visiting several relatives. Boy with the warm temperatures and sun  I have to say it looks and feels more like March than December. From Grand Rapids to Bay City there is just a very few snow piles and that is it. The high here in Grand Rapids yesterday of 52 was the 6th warmest December 22nd on record. And this whole week could be one of the top 5 warmest Christmas weeks on record here in GR. But I can say I will be able to walk outside ever day so that is a good thing and it will lower the heating bills for everyone.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

There is no sugar coating it, this blow torch is for real and it has some legs...mid 50's in the grid for today through Thursday.  Meantime, the trend in the GEFS seems to be losing the snow as it heads east and more of a typical Spring-like cutoff low pressure system tracking across the heartland where most of the snow falls in the Plains states.

 

GEFSUS_prec_meansnacc_210.png

 

Pretty much what I figured. Even if the track trended more favorable, the lack of cold makes for low snow production. We (Lwr Lakes) suck in a warm regime. Need that cold to be bold for us to score well. 

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

While the Polar Vortex  started off the month in a weakened state, nature has decided to us who's boss as the PV re-intensified over the Pole in a dramatic fashion.

 

pole30_nh.gif

 

pole10_nh.gif

 

 

 

What in the world has happened to our Blocking????  While the Sun continues to Sleep with 40 straight days of spotless days, will we eventually see these impacts??  Time will tell, as I sit here both stunned and humbled by the predictability of the modeling and the reality that nature always shows who's the Boss.

 

Gotta love these years when every analog and signal looks so great, only to have Nature go against them and do as it pleases. We have at times been the benefactor of such too tho, so it's not always a bad deal, just has been lately. 2009-10 Nino that was trumped by the mega -NAO, 2013-14 mega +AO that was trumped by the -EPO, and 2015-16 mega-Nino that gave me more snowstorms than any season since are three examples that come to mind..

  • Like 3

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last nights EC was very close to a big snow storm next weekend, just a tad to warm

 

1577599200-MtxOZ0lelPI.png

 

Might be a case of "close, but no cigar" (whatever that old saying meant).  At this point, I'd consider a 2-3" score as winning. 

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

/\  :lol:

 

GRR = "we don't know"

 

-- Next system with impacts likely to hold off until at least next

weekend --

There remains a good deal of uncertainty with regards to the weather
next weekend, and when the next more significant chance of
precipitation comes in with it. The uncertainty is a result of how
fast a SW low lifts into the area, and how it may interact with a
northern stream system with some cold air. The system could come in
as early as later Saturday, to as late as Mon-Tue. P-type with the
system could be more rain if the northern stream and cold air stays
north, and moves out before the southern stream moves in, to some
snow possible if timing allows for some phasing.

It is impossible to know at this time any timing or p-type details.
So for now, we will have some chances for precipitation in the
forecast for next weekend, with rain and snow possible.
  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Attm, a balmy 37F w deep blue skies. This looks like a December heatwave. Highs today will be in the 50s and would not be surprise if 60s pop up somewhere in SMI. Bring it on. Wow....Might as well enjoy it becuz I am getting used to this BS weather anyway.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Was 65F on Christmas of '82, and not much colder two years later. It has been even milder, but this kind of weather has another 9 months to thrive in. We need winter during winter. Seems we've all but lost December as a winter month around here anymore. 

 

I was 2 that year lol.  83' was record cold year I believe as well.  My parents tell me story about how everyone in was in shorts and playing pick-up football and basketball on Xmas day in 82'.  As much as I love snow and cold, I would have loved to experience that.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sad times when jolly old Saint Nicholas has to deploy alternate landing gear in NMI  :rolleyes:

 

 

Otherwise, high temps mostly in the mid to upper 30s are expected

across northern Michigan on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. These
above average temperatures will continue to melt the existing
snowpack through the period, meaning Santa should prepare for spots
of green across northern Michigan Christmas Eve night.
Winds could
get a little gusty on Tuesday before calming overnight. Aside from
the low chance of precipitation later on Christmas Day, no weather-
related travel concerns are anticipated for the holidays.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z ICON  :blink:

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_44.png

 

Why the "blink" response? That actually looks much more likely than any southern solution attm. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's actually some sub-32F regions in the Upper MW attm

 

20191223 11am CONUS Temps.jpg

 

@ SPS

 

Looks like this little weak CF will help cool you down up there preserving your White Christmas morning. How's the snow pack currently? 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was 2 that year lol.  83' was record cold year I believe as well.  My parents tell me story about how everyone in was in shorts and playing pick-up football and basketball on Xmas day in 82'.  As much as I love snow and cold, I would have loved to experience that.  

And there were thunderstorms on that afternoon as a "cold" front swept thru. The next day the high was only 41. But it was back up to 61 on the 28th 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have family that is supposed to travel to Omaha from SoDak this Saturday the 28th and I have no idea what to tell them to expect for weather. Definitely frustrating as we're unable to make any real plans at this point.

You hit right on the head. This is only 5 days away. It’s not like we’re at 240 or 384 hours . It is frustrating for sure to see the lack of continuity from run to run.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Canadian blasts eastern CO

 

gem_asnow_ncus_29.png

 

Typical strong Nino climo - lock it. This IS acting like a strong Nino btw (minus the EC storms missing us south)

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There's actually some sub-32F regions in the Upper MW attm

 

attachicon.gif20191223 11am CONUS Temps.jpg

 

@ SPS

 

Looks like this little weak CF will help cool you down up there preserving your White Christmas morning. How's the snow pack currently?

 

We started the weekend with 8” officially otg before the torch started. According to MPX only 2” melted despite temps in the low 40s for several straight days. I would say I have about 4” otg in my yard. My backyard faces south and I have one bare spot. White Christmas is a lock. Sorry that you and the majority of the sub won’t have that. We got lucky with the snow in early Dec and the cold spell afterwards. Otherwise we’d be brown too.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z GFS mean

1577739600-l9RbYQHclwM.png

 

 

1577739600-tWw5WezqRtk.png

 

LOL @ #8

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I know, I know, always an optimist with his outlooks and/or cold bias but..

 

20191223 JB Tweet-1.PNG

20191223 JB Tweet-2.PNG

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...