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December 2019 Observations & Discussion


clintbeed1993

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Looks like quite a few of us would cash in on the GFS.

 

Yes please.  Storm strengthens along the front.  Perfect track for my location.  6 days out, what could go wrong?  Either way, looks like LES for my area is almost certain behind the system.  

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Sorry, north of the GFS....similar to 0z runs. TC gets a few inches. Extreme NE IA and WI get snow too. Basically the Euro only has the Monday clipper. No post clipper storm development like the GFS.

The problem that run is it hangs back the main southern energy in the SW and doesn’t phase like the other models are trying to do. I think it was just a bad run.

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The problem that run is it hangs back the main southern energy in the SW and doesn’t phase like the other models are trying to do. I think it was just a bad run.

 

Euro hanging back the southern piece of energy in the southwest. Amusing it still continues to do that...

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2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 10.2"

(12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") 

(1/1: 6.4")

 

 

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Euro hanging back the southern piece of energy in the southwest. Amusing it still continues to do that...

True that, but I doubt the energy hangs back as the flow is progressive...it's not a situation like last week during Thanksgiving when everything was blocked up.

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From Skilling's FB Page

 

GOOD WEDNESDAY ALL! A QUIET THOUGH SPORADICALLY WINDY WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS WEEK--BUT A FAR MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, INCLUDING A HEALTHY INFLUX OF COLD ARCTIC AIR AND THE POTENTIAL SPIN-UP OF A WINDY STORM WHICH PUTS A POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW OVER SECTIONS OF THE MIDWEST TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK....
Last week's two powerhouse storms which over four days time--and in the midst of a Thanksgiving holiday week no less--- was a bit much. It's nice to be enjoying an atmospheric "breather" and it's good to see the sun today.
While a shot of colder air is to interrupt the 40s we'll see today and Thursday on Friday, temps are likely to rebound impressively this weekend into Monday.
It's beyond that a more active weather regime takes over---a regime which includes a healthy early season storm Tuesday and an ensuing cold blast Tuesday and Wednesday.
A colder than normal temperature pattern then holds beyond mid-December.
Models vary on the intensity of the chill predicted next week--the Weather Service's GFS model and its ensemble (the "GEFS"). Most aggressive in bringing cold air into the country is the suite of National Weather Service models. It will be interesting to continue to monitor forecasts on the evolution of next week's weather pattern.

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There are some long lead indicators that the last 10 days of the month should showcase a very active pattern with multiple storm systems around the major holidays (Christmas & NYE).  Using the BSR and LRC, both are suggesting storms to track across the central/southern Sub during these periods and both LR tools are honing in on the same dates.  Incredible to see that both LR tools mirror each other in similar ways to forecast out into the future.  Let me show you what I'm seeing...

 

Back on Nov 6th/7th there was a weak ULL near AZ that tried to phase with the N stream and produced a heavy precip event across OK/TX.  A similar "look" is being shown via the 00z GEFS whereby a system is forecast to track S of the Aleutian islands suggesting southerly track.  See animation below...

 

Both of these systems (Nov 6th/7th & Dec 9th-11th) "match up" with the dates in and around the Christmas holiday.

 

 

 

dwm500_wbgsm_20191106.gif

 

 

sfcplot_sm_20191106.gif

 

 

 

 

Second, the NYE/NYD storm is lining up with the Veteran's Day (LRC) storm and the BSR.  Both the GEFS/EPS have a strong indication that a storm will be sliding W/E across the Aleutian Islands suggesting to me there will be a blocking HP to the N which is almost an identical pattern that transpired during the Veteran's Day storm.  From what I'm seeing at this range, we should have an action packed finish to this month.  

 

 

sfcplot_sm_20191111.gif

 

Sounds great pardner! I'm really stoked that the final 10 days of December have a shot at making this a memorable holiday season around our part of the Sub. Do you remember NYE '07? Man was that a fun system that popped-up outta nowhere. Bunch of fun to track that one. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEFS keep looking better and the trend has been farther south with the snow mean.  It almost has that look of digging storms into the S Plains and tracking up the OHV.

 

snod.conus.png

 

Considering it goes out 384 hrs, I sure hope it is reflecting that. But the lead-up to Vet's Day included the Halloween system too, correct? Perhaps that's in the mix (aka the 12-14th system?)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Sounds great pardner! I'm really stoked that the final 10 days of December have a shot at making this a memorable holiday season around our part of the Sub. Do you remember NYE '07? Man was that a fun system that popped-up outta nowhere. Bunch of fun to track that one. 

The most memorable NYE into New Year's opening week was '13-'14 where we had back-to-back 10"+ snowfalls in Chicago.  It think that week I scored 25" of powder that included a lot of LES.  That was amazeballs!

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The most memorable NYE into New Year's opening week was '13-'14 where we had back-to-back 10"+ snowfalls in Chicago.  It think that week I scored 25" of powder that included a lot of LES.  That was amazeballs!

I remember that like it was yesterday. That was my last winter in Chicago. One of the best opening weeks of the year one could ever have in terms of snowfall.

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The most memorable NYE into New Year's opening week was '13-'14 where we had back-to-back 10"+ snowfalls in Chicago.  It think that week I scored 25" of powder that included a lot of LES.  That was amazeballs!

 

I remember that like it was yesterday. That was my last winter in Chicago. One of the best opening weeks of the year one could ever have in terms of snowfall.

 

Dec 2013 featured a melt-off at or just after Christmas (down to piles by 12/28), and the NYE/Day storm was a marathon of pixie flakes here that wasn't close to the 10+ yby got via lake help. The PV bliz happened on Jan 4-6th so I don't associate that as being quite in scope of the holidays. But, like you say, that stretch was perhaps the best 10 days of winter storm excitement around our region in modern times! Since I am off of work from the 24th thru the 1st, I am hoping for an even more perfectly timed outcome of storminess during that window. Let's see how things play out  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GEFS keep looking better and the trend has been farther south with the snow mean.  It almost has that look of digging storms into the S Plains and tracking up the OHV.

 

snod.conus.png

I'm not going to hold my breath on any frozen precip for the time around Christmas. Though I wouldn't argue with being snowed in and avoiding relatives this year. ;)

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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^ dang! Hadn’t checked the 18z yet, but that’s looking healthy.

Ya, the N stream does well for our members up north. I’m banking on an earlier phase to get a better wrapped up, neg tilted system. We are about the 5 day period where you’d think models have a decent handle on this system. I’m just glad this storm is still appearing and not disappearing!

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Some snowshowers at times this evening, but nothing crazy. Temp is at 34F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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NOAA:

 

Next low pressure system will target the region Sunday night through
Monday night. A low over Ontario will lay out a dry front across the
region that a developing southern stream system then rides along up
into the state from the central Plains. The Trough axis will be
swinging trough the Midwest at this time which looks to then eject
the mid level wave out of the trough northeast through MI. The
current track through Mid MI will lead to mainly rain as a ptype
over the area but CAA on the backside of the system Monday night
into Tuesday should switch it over to snow.


Beyond this system the longwave pattern with both the ECMWF and GFS
looks to bring a cold airmass across the region with 850mb temps
down to at least -20C. If this holds highs could hold in the low/mid
20s with lows into the low teens.

 

There might be some potential light accumulations on the backside. Have to watch this.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice fat flakes falling this evening along with a stout NW wind. Much more like December out there.

 

20191204 6 pm Surf Map.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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NOAA:

 

Next low pressure system will target the region Sunday night through

Monday night. A low over Ontario will lay out a dry front across the

region that a developing southern stream system then rides along up

into the state from the central Plains. The Trough axis will be

swinging trough the Midwest at this time which looks to then eject

the mid level wave out of the trough northeast through MI. The

current track through Mid MI will lead to mainly rain as a ptype

over the area but CAA on the backside of the system Monday night

into Tuesday should switch it over to snow.

 

Beyond this system the longwave pattern with both the ECMWF and GFS

looks to bring a cold airmass across the region with 850mb temps

down to at least -20C. If this holds highs could hold in the low/mid

20s with lows into the low teens.

 

There might be some potential light accumulations on the backside. Have to watch this.

 

If NWS is acknowledging the threat then I'm fine with a thread. This looks like those to our west will be the winners. I may get some back side stuff tho. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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SEMI score!

 

 

 

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
715 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

MIZ060-061-068-069-075-050300-
Shiawassee-Genesee-Livingston-Oakland-Washtenaw-
Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Howell, Pontiac,
and Ann Arbor
715 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING...

WEATHER...

* Light to moderate snow will result in additional accumulation
up to one one half inch through 10pm.

* Gusty winds and patchy fog will cause local reductions in
visbility to 1 mile or less.

* West wind around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

* Air temperature will range between 31 and 32 degrees.

IMPACTS...

* Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on
bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

* Moderate snow and gusty wind will reduce visibility to less
than one mile.

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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If NWS is acknowledging the threat then I'm fine with a thread. This looks like those to our west will be the winners. I may get some back side stuff tho. 

Great potential for ya!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Attm, cloudy flurries and burst of moderate snow at times. Temp at 33F.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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SEMI score!

 

 

 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

715 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

 

MIZ060-061-068-069-075-050300-

Shiawassee-Genesee-Livingston-Oakland-Washtenaw-

Including the cities of Owosso, Flint, Howell, Pontiac,

and Ann Arbor

715 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2019

 

...CAUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR SNOW-COVERED ROADWAYS AND

REDUCED VISIBILITIES THIS EVENING...

 

WEATHER...

 

* Light to moderate snow will result in additional accumulation

up to one one half inch through 10pm.

 

* Gusty winds and patchy fog will cause local reductions in

visbility to 1 mile or less.

 

* West wind around 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.

 

* Air temperature will range between 31 and 32 degrees.

 

IMPACTS...

 

* Accumulating snow may lead to slippery roads particularly on

bridges, exit ramps and overpasses.

 

* Moderate snow and gusty wind will reduce visibility to less

than one mile.

That is pushing it too much. I'd say 0.5" to 0.75" at the most.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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That is pushing it too much. I'd say 0.5" to 0.75" at the most.

 

 

:huh:  That's what it said, 1/2 inch

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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:huh:  That's what it said, 1/2 inch

:lol: Someone better teach NOAA how to write decimals in words :blink: 

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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