December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Stormy]

I just now was looking back at several years worth of my weather data for today and noticed every day was different.Today three years ago it snowed over 4”, two years ago the high temp was 66° with a nice t. storm in the evening, one year ago there was low stratus with snow pellets at times, and today it was sunny and mild with a high of 49°. (Also reached 49° here yesterday).

[Niko]

Some light snowshowers attm. Not even a dusting. Temp at 31F.

[Clinton]

Some of you are about to get stupid cold!

 

[Tom]

Last nights 00z EPS/Euro took a big step towards the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the LRC which produced the Gulf Low streaming due NNE up the OHV.  This pattern late next week has massive potential in and around the MW/OHV/GL's region.  I've had an asterisk next to this part of the LRC.  Just look at those 3 blocks: 1) Arctic  2) SW Ridge  3) SE Canada Ridge

 

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

Today's JMA weeklies run continues with a favorable MJO rotation back towards the colder Phases 8/1 later in December, specifically for Weeks 3-4.  Below is a map for Week 2 which shows a slow progression through Phase 2...then things change...the pattern will get ferociously wild 2nd half of the month!

 

 

 

 

By Weeks 3-4, the model is seeing Phase 8/1...

 

 

 

Here's a map that illustrates the different phases and where to look for dryness that correlates to the suppression in the above map N and NW of Australia.

 

[Clinton]

Last nights 00z EPS/Euro took a big step towards the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the LRC which produced the Gulf Low streaming due NNE up the OHV.  This pattern late next week has massive potential in and around the MW/OHV/GL's region.  I've had an asterisk next to this part of the LRC.  Just look at those 3 blocks: 1) Arctic  2) SW Ridge  3) SE Canada Ridge

 

 

 

 

 

 

The 6z GFS has a decent take on this, hopefully it a little further west then this particular run has it.  But oh my the potential this has!

[Andie]

Looks like Okwx will get his wish. I'm hoping Texas holds off till after Christmas. But the way things are,looking, we may get snow this winter in North Texas.

[snowstorm83]

Looks like Okwx will get his wish. I'm hoping Texas holds off till after Christmas. But the way things are,looking, we may get snow this winter in North Texas.

 

The storm popping up in the 8-10 day time frame reminds me a bit of the storm back in Dec 2013. I know that was a huge sleet storm for DFW. I remember in Memphis it was mostly a 33 degree rain, just a glaze of freezing rain at the end. It was a monster everywhere north and west. 

[Niko]

The 6z GFS has a decent take on this, hopefully it a little further west then this particular run has it.  But oh my the potential this has!

Look at all of that moisture to the south just waiting to explode northward. WOW!

[Niko]

Attm, mostly cloudy and seasonably cold w temps in the 30s.

[Niko]

There is also another snow potential for the weekend of (14-16th).

[Clinton]

Look at all of that moisture to the south just waiting to explode northward. WOW!

Impressive!  Either this time through or the Jan version is going to produce a monster, hopefully it does both times!

[Niko]

Impressive!  Either this time through or the Jan version is going to produce a monster, hopefully it does both times!

Yes sir!

 

I have a strong feeling someone is going to get inundated w snow and wind next week. Also, all ingredients needed seem to be in place by that timeframe for this storm to be a "Big Dog."

[westMJim]

As is typical in late November and December it has been cloudy with very little temperature variance. In the last 8 days in Grand Rapids there has only been 18 minutes of sunshine. And the temperature has range from just from the highest of 37 to the coldest of 26° Welcome to the clouds of winter here in west Michigan. At this time it is cloudy and 34 here at my house.

[Iowawx]

The GFS has a huge storm in the southern untied states on December 14-15. It's too bad that it gets surpressed because of a strong high pressure over the midwest. 

 

It does not look very exciting weatherwise here for the next two weeks or so. 

[CentralNebWeather]

The GFS has a huge storm in the southern untied states on December 14-15. It's too bad that it gets surpressed because of a strong high pressure over the midwest. 

 

It does not look very exciting weatherwise here for the next two weeks or so. 

Good point.  Nothing in Nebraska either for the foreseeable future.  I can't complain as I've had a big storm along with several smaller events, but many others in Nebraska have had virtually nothing snow wise.  Hopefully later in December and into January we can share the wealth more.

[GDR]

Man Arkansas gets blasted by gfs

[Niko]

Currently some flurries on and off w a more steady snow arriving late this afternoon. Nothing too excited.  Temp at 34F.

[Stormhunter87]

Bleh plenty of cold air but no snow . Definitely looking active though.

[MIKEKC]

12z GFS for KC.....NOTHING!! Same ole dry pattern here.

 

Over 3 inches below average on moisture and we look to add to that.

 

Chiefs 35. New England 17

[GDR]

12z has nothing down south now

[jaster220]

Last nights 00z EPS/Euro took a big step towards the "Tropical Storm Olga" part of the LRC which produced the Gulf Low streaming due NNE up the OHV.  This pattern late next week has massive potential in and around the MW/OHV/GL's region.  I've had an asterisk next to this part of the LRC.  Just look at those 3 blocks: 1) Arctic  2) SW Ridge  3) SE Canada Ridge

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look at all of that moisture to the south just waiting to explode northward. WOW!

 

Yeah, that looks beastly! That's a really strong signal for a 240hr range and I'd trust the Euro's depiction over the GFS's at this range. Nothing up til now has been suppressed. Even Vet's Day that initially looked to get shunted SE by the arctic cold wave did not. So I don't think we suddenly now at the very early start of the season see a sudden suppressed track like that one run of the GFS depicts. Either way, we have 1 or 2 "table setter" events to get through before models can fully get a handle and I'm sure they will go through their usual fluctuations during that time. Needless to say tho, seeing Tom's post got my blood pumping. Final winter yard prep slated for this weekend..

[Niko]

Yeah, that looks beastly! That's a really strong signal for a 240hr range and I'd trust the Euro's depiction over the GFS's at this range. Nothing up til now has been suppressed. Even Vet's Day that initially looked to get shunted SE by the arctic cold wave did not. So I don't think we suddenly now at the very early start of the season see a sudden suppressed track like that one run of the GFS depicts. Either way, we have 1 or 2 "table setter" events to get through before models can fully get a handle and I'm sure they will go through their usual fluctuations during that time. Needless to say tho, seeing Tom's post got my blood pumping. Final winter yard prep slated for this weekend..

Indeed. I agree 100%. Euro is the way to go. GFS usually mocks up at the beginning and then plays catch-up. Someone in MI next week will get crushed by snow.

[Niko]

Attm, mostly cloudy and not that cold w readings at 36F.

[OmahaSnowFan]

Another gorgeous day here. We hit 60.3 degrees a bit ago and the wind is almost completely calm. Overperformed on the highs as we were supposed to stay in the mid 50s. Tough to be inside working! We cool down tomorrow before it's back up around 50 on Saturday and Sunday.

[CentralNebWeather]

Another gorgeous day here. We hit 60.3 degrees a bit ago and the wind is almost completely calm. Overperformed on the highs as we were supposed to stay in the mid 50s. Tough to be inside working! We cool down tomorrow before it's back up around 50 on Saturday and Sunday.

Still stuck in the 40's here.  Amazing what still having snow on the ground can do.

[james1976]

Is it really 52 right now? Wow

[bud2380]

18z GFS  coming in snowier for many.

 

[Niko]

Attm, 36F under partly cloudy skies.

[jaster220]

18z GFS  coming in snowier for many.

 

 

That's more like it! Getting into December now..something's gotta give! My office hitting the LES potential pretty hard in their AFD. Depending on wind direction, I could even up my ytd total a bit next Tue to Thu time frame. 

 

[Niko]

18zGFS likes a lot of us.

[Niko]

Near miss for my area tanite.......most of the snow is confined to my north

 

[Tom]

00z Euro still flashing the big potential late next weekend...

 

 

 

Are there back-to-back storms lurking???  Yup, the 00z EPS last night is showing the "Halloween storm" part of the LRC with a good signal that the next storm slides down the Rockies into the "slot" by Day 9/10.  IMO, this one has a larger potential to "share the wealth" across the central Plains up into the GL's.  There are plentiful opportunities in this pattern.  It's unfortunate some of us will miss out on the snow early next week when it was looking like there was a good chance of getting some snow before the cold hits.  Hey, at least now with the cold coming, the ground will freeze and it will feel like winter before the next storm chances line up.  You gotta look at this pattern as a "glass half full" if you will.  You'll get your opportunity sooner rather than later.

 

[Tom]

This, I gotta see...00z GEFS temp mean suggests MSP tanks towards -20F...I haven't seen these maps since the Jan' 19 PV Intrusion...

 

[Clinton]

EPS mean continues to grow further south with each run, and still favors the Great Lakes area.

 

[Beltrami Island]

00z Euro still flashing the big potential late next weekend...

 

 

 

Are there back-to-back storms lurking???  Yup, the 00z EPS last night is showing the "Halloween storm" part of the LRC with a good signal that the next storm slides down the Rockies into the "slot" by Day 9/10.  IMO, this one has a larger potential to "share the wealth" across the central Plains up into the GL's.  There are plentiful opportunities in this pattern.  It's unfortunate some of us will miss out on the snow early next week when it was looking like there was a good chance of getting some snow before the cold hits.  Hey, at least now with the cold coming, the ground will freeze and it will feel like winter before the next storm chances line up.  You gotta look at this pattern as a "glass half full" if you will.  You'll get your opportunity sooner rather than later.

 

 

I am not sure what potential you are referring to if you are talking snow. My backyard in northern Minnesota has some potential with the low in North Dakota.  But, that large strong storm over PA has no cold air anywhere in the US or Canada for that 972mb low to incorporate for any meaningful snow.  The main snow field is due to elevation of the Appalachians. 

[Stacsh]

Not much showing up right now outside of the north country and the LES belts.  However, Set up looks great for my area to get a flash freeze, several inches of LES and nightmarish travel Tuesday into Wednesday.  

[Niko]

Attm, cloudy and windy w temp at 34F.

[Niko]

Not much showing up right now outside of the north country and the LES belts.  However, Set up looks great for my area to get a flash freeze, several inches of LES and nightmarish travel Tuesday into Wednesday.  

Yep, your area next week looks great for LES. Get ready!

[Tom]

I am not sure what potential you are referring to if you are talking snow. My backyard in northern Minnesota has some potential with the low in North Dakota. But, that large strong storm over PA has no cold air anywhere in the US or Canada for that 972mb low to incorporate for any meaningful snow. The main snow field is due to elevation of the Appalachians.

We are talking about a storm that is 8-9 days out. All I’m doing is pointing out that this has big potential. Do you think a model will have a clue about phasing/strength/track at this range? I doubt it. Nonetheless, the pattern setting up upstream favors a buckling trough somewhere in the eastern Sub. Your area is definitely not in the game except for maybe some lighter snows from the Northern wave Fri/Sat period that dives sought out of Canada.