December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[jaster220]

Yep, your area next week looks great for LES. Get ready!

 

HELLO! LES outbreak looking likely..

 

0z Euro Tues evening:

 

 

 

At Tom

 

00z Euro still flashing the big potential late next weekend...

 

 

Strange evolution per that run, eh? Instead of the classic track up the OHV. Seems to be lacking a true arctic air connection. I thought there was supposed to be a secondary shot timed with that system, no?

[Niko]

HELLO! LES outbreak looking likely..

 

0z Euro Tues evening:

 

20191206 0z_Euro 850mb_temps_h120.png

 

 

At Tom

 

 

 

Strange evolution per that run, eh? Instead of the classic track up the OHV. Seems to be lacking a true arctic air connection. I thought there was supposed to be a secondary shot timed with that system, no?

Get those shovels ready Jaster....LES will hammer your area.

[Niko]

Some sunshine is finally breaking out and looks like a sunny weekend as well. Seems like I haven't seen the sun in ages.

[jaster220]

Get those shovels ready Jaster....LES will hammer your area.

 

I don't think I will be "hammered" lol, but I wouldn't rule out a feather dusting. This should be a typical "first 2 counties from the lakeshore" event. I'm too far away.

 

GRR

 

A cold front will blast through the area Monday night changing

the precipitation over from rain to snow rather quickly. The lake

effect snow machine will commence Monday night and continue

probably right into Thursday. The main time frame of concern for

lake effect snow will be Tuesday, Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Delta T`s in this time frame will be high to extreme in the 20C to

30C degree range. Moisture depth is decent, but it is a bit

lacking over time. Looking at the 850mb to 700mb layer which is

where lake effect events separate themselves from ok to

significant, the moisture is rather weak, less than 70 percent.

That said, lake effect will occur and we will turn the lakeshore

white again where the snow has melted. Of bigger concern will be

travel issues that develop as highs on Wednesday will hold in the

teens. When we get temperatures this cold and snow is occurring

(even if its the fine powdery light snow like this event will be)

we develop travel issues as salt is much less effective. People

will need to be aware that travel concerns will develop from

Tuesday into Wednesday across Western Lower Michigan.

[Niko]

The EC next week has the potential for a major snowstorm, if the CF stalls and the formation of a new low that does form near the Carolina's moves up the coast or goes out to sea. Something to keep an eye on.

[Niko]

Not sure, but I think the EC might steal the show for next weeks storm. Especially, if it tracks up the coast and crushes areas like Philly to Bos w a lot of snow.

[Madtown]

[westMJim]

After 5 days into December 2019 our area has seen cloudy skies and very stable temperatures.  At Grand Rapids December so far the mean temperature of 33.1° and that is +0.1° the high for the month is 39 and the low so far 26. There has been 3.6” of snow fall. At Muskegon their mean is 34.6° that is a departure of +0.8° their high so far this month is 41 and their low is 28. And they have reported 2.4” of snow fall. Down at Kalamazoo their mean is 34.7° a departure of +1.7 the high down there for the month is 45 and their low is just 29. Kalamazoo doesn’t keep snow fall records. And to the east at Lansing the mean there is 32.9 that is a departure of +0.4 the high there is 38 and the low so far just 27. And Lansing has reported just 0.5” of snow fall.

[Madtown]

John dee says 1-2" at best through the 15th here

[Tom]

HELLO! LES outbreak looking likely..

 

0z Euro Tues evening:

 

20191206 0z_Euro 850mb_temps_h120.png

 

 

At Tom

 

 

 

Strange evolution per that run, eh? Instead of the classic track up the OHV. Seems to be lacking a true arctic air connection. I thought there was supposed to be a secondary shot timed with that system, no?

There should be enough cold air available to tap. Let’s see what the models show over the coming days.

[Niko]

Its quite windy outside. Getting gusts to 25mph. Sun & clouds w a temp of 36F. I noticed my average high is now in the upper 30s and lows in the upper 20s, so yep, its getting colder and colder until mid January where temps reach at their coldest for highs and lows.

[Hoosier]

Not sure, but I think the EC might steal the show for next weeks storm. Especially, if it tracks up the coast and crushes areas like Philly to Bos w a lot of snow.

The setup looks pretty awful for the east coast cities. No high to the north to lock in the cold air. I guess nothing is impossible but I'd strongly bet against an east coast snowstorm with that one.

[Niko]

The setup looks pretty awful for the east coast cities. No high to the north to lock in the cold air. I guess nothing is impossible but I'd strongly bet against an east coast snowstorm with that one.

I was leaning more about the arctic air rushing in. If the front stalls, cold air catches up. Low forms somewhere around the Carolina's and if it takes that turn up the coast, then, it snows hard. That is my current thinking. We will see. It looks very interesting though tbh.

[Hoosier]

I was leaning more about the arctic air rushing in. If the front stalls, cold air catches up. Low forms somewhere around the Carolina's and if it takes that turn up the coast, then, it snows hard. That is my current thinking. We will see. It looks very interesting though tbh.

Besides the surface high not being favorably positioned, there is another low modeled back to the west around the lakes at the same time. Unless there are wholesale changes with those key features, there is really no mechanism to get the cold air to the coast and to lock it in. As long as those 2 things are true, I suspect that the big cities would struggle to see much if any snow even if the low tracked off the coast.

[Niko]

Besides the surface high not being favorably positioned, there is another low modeled back to the west around the lakes at the same time. Unless there are wholesale changes with those key features, there is really no mechanism to get the cold air to the coast and to lock it in. As long as those 2 things are true, I suspect that the big cities would struggle to see much if any snow even if the low tracked off the coast.

We will just have to wait n see what happens. When arctic air meets that warm surge of air ahead , things get crazy there.

[Stacsh]

Euro phases the 15th storm and bombs out over Lake Huron lol.      That would be epic if thermals are there.   

[Tom]

12z Euro...getting closer to the idea of a classic Gulf low bomb streaming north up towards the GL's....baby steps...

 

 

[Niko]

Euro phases the 15th storm and bombs out over Lake Huron lol.      That would be epic if thermals are there.   

Yup, I saw that, possibly my area being affected.......Woohoooooo!

[jaster220]

12z Euro...getting closer to the idea of a classic Gulf low bomb streaming north up towards the GL's....baby steps...

 

 

 

That's better. Track much closer to yesterday's:

 

 

..just need SOME COLD TO SHOW UP! 

[jaster220]

Euro phases the 15th storm and bombs out over Lake Huron lol.      That would be epic if thermals are there.   

 

As shown, for NMI you mean?

[jaster220]

k, for sure sideways white rain verbatim..

 

[jaster220]

Would be fantastic with enough cold ahead of it..

 

 

[Tom]

That's better. Track much closer to yesterday's:

 

20191205 0z_Euro 500mb_h240.png

 

..just need SOME COLD TO SHOW UP!

Do you remember the last time a Gulf Low as being advertised per the Euro has hit our region as a massive winter storm? I can’t remember TBH. Was I even alive? Lol. It must seem like ages ago. They always seem to hit the EC. I remember the Super storm of 1993 vividly bc back then our family took a road trip down to Miami during Spring to catch a cruise and remember seeing so much snow through KY/TN. It was quite the scene even seeing snow in GA.

[Niko]

SuperStorm 1993 was a massive snowstorm...I was living in the northern parts of Queens (Northshore) at the time..and we got slammed hard. My area received 18.1" w drifts ova 2 feet. Some spots had near 2.5ft. An incredible storm. Even Atlanta, GA was getting blizzard conditions.  A lot of the southern states saw snow. Great storm.

 

 

https://youtu.be/cW1JRKbCgbQ

[jaster220]

Do you remember the last time a Gulf Low as being advertised per the Euro has hit our region as a massive winter storm? I can’t remember TBH. Was I even alive? Lol. It must seem like ages ago. They always seem to hit the EC. I remember the Super storm of 1993 vividly bc back then our family took a road trip down to Miami during Spring to catch a cruise and remember seeing so much snow through KY/TN. It was quite the scene even seeing snow in GA.

 

I was working in NMI back then and remember how disappointed I was that it was missing us to the east - in March of all months. It was my 3rd winter in the northland and it hadn't been that snowy tbh, so when that began to be hyped I really wasn't too happy. Matter of fact, it was the 2nd monster storm of that season that missed us to the east. The one in December hit PA. I remember the NWS knew that one would be a very disruptive storm, but they weren't sure if it would form west of the Appalachian's or east. I was listening to the car radio when they broke in with the alert signal normally used for severe wx storms to announce the potential of a massive storm. But, ofc we instead got to watch via TV news clips as PA was getting buried with 30+ inches. 

 

As for the March '93 monster, there were actually some of my co-workers who went down for spring break vacation when that hit. I think they got stuck in N Alabama since the roads weren't plowed. Wild storm for sure! Triple-Phasers are amazing.

 

Now, back to the future, meaning this coming event and whether we've seen anything like it? I know Detroit was hit in Jan of '92 with a 10-14" storm taking a similar path to what is being advertised on the 12z. That hit overnight and pretty much brought the city to a stand still. Some say that was a Triple-phase job as well. Also, Dec of '87 bombing GOMEX low is the next best I can come up with. That had all the dynamics RN/SN/Wind even T-storms! IF anything more recent has happened It's eluding my memory attm. 

 

Edit - I remembered one. The Christmas Eve storm of 2014. That one also lacked cold enough air so it didn't deepen in time to reach it's potential until it was further north. Canada northeast of the UP got buried iirc. All I can say is UGGH if this goes that route and the ghost of Dec 2014 analog pays a Grinchy visit! 

[Niko]

I was working in NMI back then and remember how disappointed I was that it was missing us to the east - in March of all months. It was my 3rd winter in the northland and it hadn't been that snowy tbh, so when that began to be hyped I really wasn't too happy. Matter of fact, it was the 2nd monster storm of that season that missed us to the east. The one in December hit PA. I remember the NWS knew that one would be a very disruptive storm, but they weren't sure if it would form west of the Appalachian's or east. I was listening to the car radio when they broke in with the alert signal normally used for severe wx storms to announce the potential of a massive storm. But, ofc we instead got to watch via TV news clips as PA was getting buried with 30+ inches. 

 

As for the March '93 monster, there were actually some of my co-workers who went down for spring break vacation when that hit. I think they got stuck in N Alabama since the roads weren't plowed. Wild storm for sure! Triple-Phasers are amazing.

 

Now, back to the future, meaning this coming event and whether we've seen anything like it? I know Detroit was hit in Jan of '92 with a 10-14" storm taking a similar path to what is being advertised on the 12z. That hit overnight and pretty much brought the city to a stand still. Some say that was a Triple-phase job as well. Also, Dec of '87 bombing GOMEX low is the next best I can come up with. That had all the dynamics RN/SN/Wind even T-storms! IF anything more recent has happened It's eluding my memory attm. 

[jaster220]

 

Not nice, you..

[Hoosier]

Do you remember the last time a Gulf Low as being advertised per the Euro has hit our region as a massive winter storm? I can’t remember TBH. Was I even alive? Lol. It must seem like ages ago. They always seem to hit the EC. I remember the Super storm of 1993 vividly bc back then our family took a road trip down to Miami during Spring to catch a cruise and remember seeing so much snow through KY/TN. It was quite the scene even seeing snow in GA.

Sort of depends on what you mean by Gulf low. GHD 2011 for instance sort of kissed the northwestern GOM for a while but it didn't originate there. Obviously with something farther east in the GOM there is less margin for error for Chicagoland... you better have a sharp neutral/negatively tilted trough or else the surface low will want to escape eastward.

[jaster220]

What's odd is CPC has us outlined for potential BN temps during the time of this potential system. Prolly where I got the idea we'd have more cold air to work with..

 

[jaster220]

Sort of depends on what you mean by Gulf low. GHD 2011 for instance sort of kissed the northwestern GOM for a while but it didn't originate there. Obviously with something farther east in the GOM there is less margin for error for Chicagoland... you better have a sharp neutral/negatively tilted trough or else the surface low will want to escape eastward.

 

Gulf Low in the truest sense originates in the Gulf, see Olga for perfect match. For purposes of winter storm classifications or disco, I've always accepted anything that dipped south enough to be inside one of the gulf bordering states, grabs a batch of moisture, and shoots more N than E in order to hit SMI as qualifying as a "GOMEX Low".

[Niko]

Not nice, you..

[Niko]

Potential is for the following weekend next week to have rain/snow mix to all rain followed by colder air behind the system (for mby that is). Looks more in line of being a mix bag to rain followed by snowshowers at the tail end. Temps are expected to be in the upper 30s to near 40F. Couple of days ago, it showed snow and temps near 30F.

 

Its still way too early in the game, but just keep this track in mind that its a possibility. Here is a sneak peak at the map......

 

 

I really like it when I see a Low Pressure area in the deep south riding up the app mountains. I think I have a good feeling about this one. We will see.  Jaster, you are looking golden for very hvy snow. Borderline for my area. I could be seeing hvy mix perhaps going ova to snow, possibly hvy. Would not be surprise If I see some rain at times too.

 

Btw: Scenario2 takes it out to sea.

[Niko]

Currently, its a blustery late afternoon w temp at 34F under mostly to partly cloudy skies.

[Niko]

Would be fantastic with enough cold ahead of it..

Yep..that would help.

[Hoosier]

Gulf Low in the truest sense originates in the Gulf, see Olga for perfect match. For purposes of winter storm classifications or disco, I've always accepted anything that dipped south enough to be inside one of the gulf bordering states, grabs a batch of moisture, and shoots more N than E in order to hit SMI as qualifying as a "GOMEX Low".

Wish I could remember the date but back in the late 90s or so there was a Gulf low that came almost due north. Reason I can't remember the date is probably because it was a very low impact system as thermal profiles were marginal. I remember being on the northwest fringe in northwest IN so I'm not even sure if any precip made it into Chicago.

[Niko]

EC have a shot of some snow by midweek with the Anafront, especially, late Tuesday nite into Wednesday morning.

[Niko]

Clinton--

 

Where you at buddy. You have been MIA today. Do ya have any latest ensembles to show?! Thanks bud!

[Clinton]

Clinton--

 

Where you at buddy. You have been MIA today. Do ya have any latest ensembles to show?! Thanks bud!

Just got home, went out and bought me a new truck today!  Getting ready to look them over and will post some stuff.

[Niko]

Just got home, went out and bought me a new truck today!  Getting ready to look them over and will post some stuff.

Congratulations on yr new truck amigo....Awesome!!!!!!

[Clinton]

I see the GFS and CMC have the Halloween storm.  That one may give me a direct hit.