December 2019 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

Congratulations on yr new truck amigo....Awesome!!!!!!

Thank you!  I am very excited today.

[Niko]

Hoosier-

 

Something to keep an eye out if anyone traveling to the EC next week.....Accuweather on board

 

[CentralNebWeather]

18z GFS. This would be fun if it verified but wouldn’t put a lot of stock in the GFS long term.

[Clinton]

12z EPS mean and ensembles.  Could we all have some snow on the ground by the 20th?

 

[Clinton]

18z GFS. This would be fun if it verified but wouldn’t put a lot of stock in the GFS long term.1ECE4CAD-47B0-4350-99A6-F873646B81BC.gif

We willl have 3 different storms targeting different areas between now and the 18th.  Maybe the GFS is on to something, hope we can get some blocking though.

[Niko]

12z EPS mean and ensembles.  Could we all have some snow on the ground by the 20th?

 

Thanks Clinton! Some of these are looking golden.

[OKwx2k4]

You folks up north ought to have a blast the next 2 weeks. Congratulations.

[CentralNebWeather]

We willl have 3 different storms targeting different areas between now and the 18th. Maybe the GFS is on to something, hope we can get some blocking though.

Good point. It has potential but lots of time for adjustments. Nice to have various storm opportunities. Would be nice to see the Euro with something similar in the coming days.

[jaster220]

Potential is for the following weekend next week to have rain/snow mix to all rain followed by colder air behind the system (for mby that is). Looks more in line of being a mix bag to rain followed by snowshowers at the tail end. Temps are expected to be in the upper 30s to near 40F. Couple of days ago, it showed snow and temps near 30F.

 

Its still way too early in the game, but just keep this track in mind that its a possibility. Here is a sneak peak at the map......

 

 

I really like it when I see a Low Pressure area in the deep south riding up the app mountains. I think I have a good feeling about this one. We will see.  Jaster, you are looking golden for very hvy snow. Borderline for my area. I could be seeing hvy mix perhaps going ova to snow, possibly hvy. Would not be surprise If I see some rain at times too.

 

Btw: Scenario2 takes it out to sea.

 

Too bad that's ONLY 9 days out lol. These systems are always an if-dog-rabbit deal anyways. They tease and tease but eventually fall apart or go to NE. Heck, I think last Dec had one taking this same path, models were already showing a nice 8" hit here a few days out, then POOF! The month of flatness continued to roll with boring nothingness. 

[jaster220]

I see the GFS and CMC have the Halloween storm.  That one may give me a direct hit.

 

Thx Clinton. What exactly are they showing for when since I don't have an ongoing log book on the LRC storms like you and Tom have kept. 

[Niko]

Too bad that's ONLY 9 days out lol. These systems are always an if-dog-rabbit deal anyways. They tease and tease but eventually fall apart or go to NE. Heck, I think last Dec had one taking this same path, models were already showing a nice 8" hit here a few days out, then POOF! The month of flatness continued to roll with boring nothingness. 

Thats true...but always fun to look at and educate ourselves how these storms behave within this timeframe.

[Clinton]

Thx Clinton. What exactly are they showing for when since I don't have an ongoing log book on the LRC storms like you and Tom have kept. 

Storm 1 9th,10th (Northern plains, Great Lakes)

Storm 2 12th,13th Ohio Valley, Great Lakes)

Storm 3 18th,19th (Central, Southern Plains)

[jaster220]

So pencil me confused. Once the arctic CF blasts thru in the early hours of Tuesday morning the GEFS keep me below freezing the entire run. Why then is the Euro having trouble finding cold air for that storm next weekend? I know it's been mentioned that the Euro has been horrible bad at times missing the cold. Is that possibly going on here too or are the GEFS out to lunch? Just seems like a major discrepancy tbh.

[jaster220]

Storm 1 9th,10th (Northern plains, Great Lakes)

Storm 2 12th,13th Ohio Valley, Great Lakes)

Storm 3 18th,19th (Central, Southern Plains)

 

Thanks bud. What prior storms do you feel they correspond to tho? Oh, and enjoy your new ride!! 

[jaster220]

Dropped to freezing right about dark this evening. Sitting at 27F already. I think I glimpsed puddles getting ice already. Should be a good solid freeze-up here overnight. But, as has been the case, we then get a pair of AN days Sun/Mon. 

[Niko]

Storm 1 9th,10th (Northern plains, Great Lakes)

Storm 2 12th,13th Ohio Valley, Great Lakes)

Storm 3 18th,19th (Central, Southern Plains)

I think I'll choose Storm#2

[Niko]

Dropped to freezing right about dark this evening. Sitting at 27F already. I think I glimpsed puddles getting ice already. Should be a good solid freeze-up here overnight. But, as has been the case, we then get a pair of AN days Sun/Mon. 

Track plays a major role ma friend!

 

[Niko]

Attm, its a blustery, cold December nite w readings getting down to 21F tanite.

[jaster220]

Track plays a major role ma friend!

 

 

I get that bud. Going on a month since we got that nice snow hit tho. Need me some action! 

[Niko]

I get that bud. Going on a month since we got that nice snow hit tho. Need me some action! 

I know, but don't forget, that was a freak snowstorm, especially for mby. Usually, by now is when we start getting some snowstorms going. Yes, its time to start getting some white powda going.

 

[Niko]

Jaster--

 

Next weekend (14-16th) timeframe does bear watching. Whenever a Low forms in the GOM, it has my attn. I think you have a good shot w this bud (more snowfall than mby that is).

[Clinton]

Thanks bud. What prior storms do you feel they correspond to tho? Oh, and enjoy your new ride!! 

Storm 1 relates to Oct 20th,21st

Storm 2 relates to Oct 26th,27th (big low emerged from Gulf moved up Miss River into the Ohio Valley)

Storm 3 relates to Oct  29th, 30th (produced the largest Halloween snowfall in KC history)

And thank you I am enjoying it!

[Clinton]

I think I'll choose Storm#2

Man if it can stay cold for you, it may smash you.  That is a awesome storm!

[Clinton]

So pencil me confused. Once the arctic CF blasts thru in the early hours of Tuesday morning the GEFS keep me below freezing the entire run. Why then is the Euro having trouble finding cold air for that storm next weekend? I know it's been mentioned that the Euro has been horrible bad at times missing the cold. Is that possibly going on here too or are the GEFS out to lunch? Just seems like a major discrepancy tbh.

IMO the +AO, NAO could be the cause for that.  I would guess on something in the middle as far as temps.  The snow cover should help.

[Niko]

Man if it can stay cold for you, it may smash you.  That is a awesome storm!

Absolutely. Lets hope it delivers.  

[Niko]

Man if it can stay cold for you, it may smash you.  That is a awesome storm!

How is this looking for you? I am assuming you might be too far west, right? Hope Im wrong.

[Clinton]

How is this looking for you? I am assuming you might be too far west, right? Hope Im wrong.

Looks like I'll be to far west for the first 2 but should be in a good spot for the 18th.

[jaster220]

18z GFS. This would be fun if it verified but wouldn’t put a lot of stock in the GFS long term.1ECE4CAD-47B0-4350-99A6-F873646B81BC.gif

 

What? ONLY another 3 feet for the western UP?? At this rate, somewhere up there could make a run at the state record snow depth which is 117" OTG if I remember my stats correctly. 

[jaster220]

Looks like I'll be to far west for the first 2 but should be in a good spot for the 18th.

 

Thanks for that nice LRC list. Those dates really do align around 48 days from those prior systems. Amazing if they come to pass as expected! And yeah, I see that last one takes a path much more favorable for yby. Cheers! to all of us getting in the game. 

[Niko]

Looks like I'll be to far west for the first 2 but should be in a good spot for the 18th.

[jaster220]

You folks up north ought to have a blast the next 2 weeks. Congratulations.

 

Uhmm, lots and lots to be improved for that to be the case. Still, I appreciate your well-wishes OKwx. 

[Clinton]

Thanks for that nice LRC list. Those dates really do align around 48 days from those prior systems. Amazing if they come to pass as expected! And yeah, I see that last one takes a path much more favorable for yby. Cheers! to all of us getting in the game. 

I hope this Gulf/OV system delivers for you, this and/or the Jan version should be epic.  Lets get that NAO to go negatikve!

[Niko]

You folks up north ought to have a blast the next 2 weeks. Congratulations.

Lots to iron out first, but hopefully, it pans out into a blast. Need that G Block to get stronger though.

[jaster220]

00z Euro still flashing the big potential late next weekend...

 

 

 

Are there back-to-back storms lurking???  Yup, the 00z EPS last night is showing the "Halloween storm" part of the LRC with a good signal that the next storm slides down the Rockies into the "slot" by Day 9/10.  IMO, this one has a larger potential to "share the wealth" across the central Plains up into the GL's.  There are plentiful opportunities in this pattern.  It's unfortunate some of us will miss out on the snow early next week when it was looking like there was a good chance of getting some snow before the cold hits.  Hey, at least now with the cold coming, the ground will freeze and it will feel like winter before the next storm chances line up.  You gotta look at this pattern as a "glass half full" if you will.  You'll get your opportunity sooner rather than later.

 

 

Just for the record, today;s 18z GFS isn't that far away from showing what the Euro did. Notice the secondary SLP indicated in OH. Main difference is it's showing more or less a Miller-B scenario and focuses the energy on the coastal. 

 

[Niko]

From AccuWeather:

 

"In the more extreme scenario, a storm will strengthen rapidly while moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico and take a path inland of the Atlantic coast or perhaps over the spine of the Appalachians," Randy Adkins, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said. In this extreme scenario, the storm may unleash very heavy snow from parts of the Tennessee Valley to a portion of the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. Under a scenario like this, weather would cause significant impacts to travel and shipping at a busy time of the year and could cause delays or full cancellations of schools for students in these regions.

 

I am trying to think when was the last time we had a low come north from the GOM and take a path straight up the App mountains. We are talking a perfect track here, but it can also be a very sensitive path as well. Small shifts and BOOM. Game OVA!!!!!

[jaster220]

From AccuWeather:

 

"In the more extreme scenario, a storm will strengthen rapidly while moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico and take a path inland of the Atlantic coast or perhaps over the spine of the Appalachians," Randy Adkins, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said. In this extreme scenario, the storm may unleash very heavy snow from parts of the Tennessee Valley to a portion of the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. Under a scenario like this, weather would cause significant impacts to travel and shipping at a busy time of the year and could cause delays or full cancellations of schools for students in these regions.

 

It all sounds so good, but when exactly does this go from hyperbole and hype to legit threat? 

[Niko]

It is gorgeous outside, but seasonably cold. Temp attm is 28F under crystal clear skies w no wind. Going for a low of 20F. Maybe some upper teens.

[jaster220]

From AccuWeather:

 

"In the more extreme scenario, a storm will strengthen rapidly while moving northward from the Gulf of Mexico and take a path inland of the Atlantic coast or perhaps over the spine of the Appalachians," Randy Adkins, AccuWeather senior meteorologist, said. In this extreme scenario, the storm may unleash very heavy snow from parts of the Tennessee Valley to a portion of the Ohio Valley and central Great Lakes. Under a scenario like this, weather would cause significant impacts to travel and shipping at a busy time of the year and could cause delays or full cancellations of schools for students in these regions.

 

I am trying to think when was the last time we had a low come north from the GOM and take a path straight up the App mountains. We are talking a perfect track here, but it can also be a very sensitive path as well. Small shifts and BOOM. Game OVA!!!!!

 

Tom posed that same question earlier today, and to be honest, as far as what is being flashed by the Euro hasn't happened unless you consider Jan '78 the last time. We just do NOT get these often, thus we struggle to remember an instance. Another one coming to mind is the March '08 bliz that buried a lot of OH with up to 20" but I don't remember exactly where that SLP originated? 

[Niko]

It all sounds so good, but when exactly does this go from hyperbole and hype to legit threat? 

So true.   Dont ya wish this was for this weekend. Man, that would have been phenomenal.

[jaster220]

So, the GEFS have the cold around, but no storm while the Euro's been flashing the storm w/o the cold. Could they meet in the middle??

 

Last 4 Euro runs have consistently been showing a strong SLP in the eastern OHV so there's that..