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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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More blue sky now.

 

YaFn35r.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Ended up maybe a bit under an inch on non-road surfaces here, was lucky to be in the path of all those heavier radar echoes on the west side, temp was just a hair over freezing. I didn't see any sleet, switched straight from snow to rain/snow mix by around 230 AM. Areas closer to the coast range did relatively well as expected. Precip was basically done just as a little rain started to mix in. Worked out pretty well.

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Pattern still looks like splitsville thru day 7/8

I think there could be a week of meaningful precipitation and storminess before the next dry/blocky stretch gets going. And when it gets going..lots of folks are gonna freeze.

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12z GFS wasn't too bad. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Ensembles are terrible. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

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Another heavy band of precipitation coming through Salem....looks like last night again but tracking more NNW

 

Just getting clipped by the east section of that band here. Temp has dropped from 38 to 35. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

 

Time to check the CFS!

 

Looks cold in the east to end December.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

Can’t wait to see it come to life! 

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42 and cloudy. Snowed lightly for about 30 minutes this morning but I didn’t stay up watching for long it since it was 38-40 degree snow. Ground is still dry so even if it was cold enough there hasn’t been much precip in my area.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Time to check the CFS!

I hope it’s forecasting the opposite, lol. That model is fermented molasses.

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42 and cloudy. Snowed lightly for about 30 minutes this morning but I didn’t stay up watching for long it since it was 38-40 degree snow. Ground is still dry so even if it was cold enough there hasn’t been much precip in my area.

 

Yeah we only had about a tenth of an inch of precip here. Ground is wet, but still mostly frozen. One of the nice things about our soil up here though is that it drains very well. Doesn't ever get super muddy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Looking forward to what looks like at this point a more active weather pattern as we head into December. Maybe we will get really wet through the first half of the month, then we get cold and snowy in the second half.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Going to end up the coldest year at Salem probably since at least 2012. If they can end up with a -0.9 departure or lower for December it would be their first below average annual mean since 2011...Seems like a bit of a long shot, but with inversions who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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That melting started fast.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃

Think Cold and SNOW???? ❄❄☃☃

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

AO tends to be kind of meaningless for the west. Mixed results with that signal.
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All told, ended up with a solid dusting last night. Calling it 0.1" might be a stretch, even though there was probably that much on some surfaces. But it was a fun little event with the snow in the air and the wind, and a great way to kick off the winter season

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Pattern still looks like splitsville thru day 7/8

 

 

12Z ECMWF splits the late week trough more than previous runs as well.   A bit drier as a result... and it was not really that wet on previous runs.  

 

Average opening date at Snoqualmie Summit is December 7th... no chance of that this year. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow.   

 

A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes.    This run does not even tease us.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

Bottom line how does it effect the pnw

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