Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 More blue sky now. Gorgeous! Snow always seems to look better with blue skies in the background. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Up to 0.12" of rain since midnight. Well ahead of November's pace. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 At least we can say it snowed this fall AND this winter. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 A dusting of white looking out my weather window B740DAA1-80D1-4A85-8585-7086F2E07531.jpegNice, how far from the lake do you live? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow. A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes. This run does not even tease us.Could very well stay split flow most of winter. We've been doomed with this before. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Oh rats! Gul durnit!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Ended up with almost an inch of snow. Still on ground and 34 degrees here. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I'm guessing the 57 at Vancouver was an error... 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
van city Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 If only we could find a way to get snow to fall from blue skies. That would be Tim's dream come true. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 The 00Z EPS actually showed a decent mountain snow pattern in the 10-15 day period with zonal flow eventually carving out a trough across most of the CONUS. Hopefully it still shows that on the 12Z run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt. Haven’t had a Dec-Jan event here of more than 6” or so since I moved to Oregon IIRC. Feb has so often been the big winner. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.Are these two statements supposed to be somehow related? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt. Haven’t had a Dec-Jan event here of more than 6” or so since I moved to Oregon IIRC. Feb has so often been the big winner. Yeah, no sign it won't be. We even have Justin on board for a 2004-05 redux! 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Still think I'm going to score this winter, just not this time. For openers, I'm in a favored location. Odds are I'll get the goods in some event where Seattle and points south get shafted. If Seattle's getting dumped on, it tends to be just dry and windy here. Conversely, it's easily possible Seattle to be in the low forties and getting rain while Whatcom County is solidly below freezing and getting a good snowstorm. 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 The 00Z EPS actually showed a decent mountain snow pattern in the 10-15 day period with zonal flow eventually carving out a trough across most of the CONUS. Hopefully it still shows that on the 12Z run. It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational. And it has been consistent with the timing of that too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Gorgeous! Snow always seems to look better with blue skies in the background. Yeah it is! Here was Christmas Day 2018. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Yeah, no sign it won't be. We even have Justin on board for a 2004-05 redux! What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Yeah it is! Here was Christmas Day 2018. Christmas morning 2016... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational. And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 RIP Winter 2019-2020. We're less than 12 hours into Meteorological Winter and we're making statements like this. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer. It was terrible during winter... ski season was non-existent. But I think there was lots of mountain snow very late in the season... like into April. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Finished with about 0.4" here on the bark and grass. Looks like we were among the few places to get measurable snow. Feb 2019 has been atoned. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 1, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Christmas morning 2016... That's a really good photo!! 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards. This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 November 2019 rainfall statistics: Blythe, CA (about 20 miles west of Farmboy): 1.80" Phoenix (PHX): 1.55"Portland (PDX): 1.52"Hillsboro: 1.16" 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 AO tends to be kind of meaningless for the west. Mixed results with that signal.That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO). So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow. A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes. This run does not even tease us. I like where it's going at the end. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 The vast majority of “correlations” in wx/climate are in fact nonlinear/varying. Yet we’re always looking for those simple, linear, 1-to-1 linear correlations. Unfortunately, those are rare and almost always short lived (geologically) and/or state-dependent. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards. This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs. The only difference that I see is that the EPS is a bit quicker, consistent with the timing of previous EPS runs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Feb 2019 has been atoned.He got smoked by Failshington County, there Mr. Knifetwister. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.Correct. The sheer number of permutations blended into the mean statistically renders this so. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO). So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 I like where it's going at the end.Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run. Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...I guess that depends on your subjective preferences. If you want a firehose jet and lots of precip like Tim (or his doppelgänger) then yeah a +PNA would be what delivers that (extended East-Asian jet/+MT probably over warm pool exhaust). Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 1.33" of rain for the month of November in SW Scappoose 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.Hmm. I don’t see the first two..looks like meager RWD to me. The NAM is preparing to flip, but that wouldn’t be in the range of the Euro or its ensembles for the most part. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2019 Report Share Posted December 1, 2019 Or I could be full of it. That’s just my interpretation..not easy to extrapolate these things beyond 5 days. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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