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December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW


Timmy Supercell

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Up to 0.12" of rain since midnight. Well ahead of November's pace. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow.

 

A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes. This run does not even tease us.

Could very well stay split flow most of winter. We've been doomed with this before.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I'm guessing the 57 at Vancouver was an error...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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The 00Z EPS actually showed a decent mountain snow pattern in the 10-15 day period with zonal flow eventually carving out a trough across most of the CONUS.    Hopefully it still shows that on the 12Z run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.

 

Haven’t had a Dec-Jan event here of more than 6” or so since I moved to Oregon IIRC. Feb has so often been the big winner.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.

Are these two statements supposed to be somehow related?

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40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.

 

Haven’t had a Dec-Jan event here of more than 6” or so since I moved to Oregon IIRC. Feb has so often been the big winner.

 

Yeah, no sign it won't be. We even have Justin on board for a 2004-05 redux!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Still think I'm going to score this winter, just not this time. For openers, I'm in a favored location. Odds are I'll get the goods in some event where Seattle and points south get shafted. If Seattle's getting dumped on, it tends to be just dry and windy here. Conversely, it's easily possible Seattle to be in the low forties and getting rain while Whatcom County is solidly below freezing and getting a good snowstorm.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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The 00Z EPS actually showed a decent mountain snow pattern in the 10-15 day period with zonal flow eventually carving out a trough across most of the CONUS.    Hopefully it still shows that on the 12Z run.  

It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational.  And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.

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Gorgeous! Snow always seems to look better with blue skies in the background.

 

Yeah it is! Here was Christmas Day 2018.

 

D9tan9X.jpg

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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Yeah, no sign it won't be. We even have Justin on board for a 2004-05 redux!

 

What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational.  And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.

I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.

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RIP Winter 2019-2020.

 

We're less than 12 hours into Meteorological Winter and we're making statements like this.  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

 

 

It was terrible during winter... ski season was non-existent.

 

But I think there was lots of mountain snow very late in the season... like into April.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Christmas morning 2016...  :)

 

15625918_1189594527775420_37694496720667

 

That's a really good photo!!

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards.  

 

This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-63464

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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AO tends to be kind of meaningless for the west. Mixed results with that signal.

That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

 

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)

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The vast majority of “correlations” in wx/climate are in fact nonlinear/varying. Yet we’re always looking for those simple, linear, 1-to-1 linear correlations.

 

Unfortunately, those are rare and almost always short lived (geologically) and/or state-dependent.

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EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards.  

 

This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-63464

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea

The only difference that I see is that the EPS is a bit quicker, consistent with the timing of previous EPS runs.

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I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.

Correct. The sheer number of permutations blended into the mean statistically renders this so.

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That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

 

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)

 

Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...

A forum for the end of the world.

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I like where it's going at the end.

Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run.

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Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run.

 

Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.

A forum for the end of the world.

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Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...

I guess that depends on your subjective preferences. ;)

 

If you want a firehose jet and lots of precip like Tim (or his doppelgänger) then yeah a +PNA would be what delivers that (extended East-Asian jet/+MT probably over warm pool exhaust).

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Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.

Hmm. I don’t see the first two..looks like meager RWD to me. The NAM is preparing to flip, but that wouldn’t be in the range of the Euro or its ensembles for the most part.

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Or I could be full of it. That’s just my interpretation..not easy to extrapolate these things beyond 5 days.

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