December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[umadbro]

Full on drama entertainment tonight. Great stuff kids. Keep at it.

[Cloud]

I can only post what the guy gives. Mat gave what we can now.

Which is most likely the same models information we are able to obtain. Unless of course, your insider lives in an alternate timeline.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Which is most likely the same models information we are able to obtain. Unless of course, your insider lives in an alternate timeline.

It’s how you interpret them

[stuffradio]

It’s how you interpret them

What's exciting about that? We have the CFS to do the same thing!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Guest CulverJosh]

What's exciting about that? We have the CFS to do the same thing!

Keeps getting pushed out. But New Years is the latest time this is happening. Just watch.

[snow_wizard]

Probably the best way to show the ECMWF weeklies is to show the PNA graph.  I'll bet it's been ages since we had a Janaury with -PNA the entire month.  The last few updates of the weeklies have been mostly good, but this is the best yet.  The 500mb mean and control both show some real cold in January as well.

 

 

[MossMan]

Keeps getting pushed out. But New Years is the latest time this is happening. Just watch.

New Years is when it strikes us or when the pattern starts to evolve?

[Anti Marine Layer]

12z ECMWF. BIG CHANGE

 

Day 6-8. Energy south of Aleutians just holds back not charging east as with previous runs.

 

floop-ecmwf-2019122312.500h_anom.na(1).gif

Outside slider.

[snow_wizard]

Just a warning.   I'm not going to even bother posting on here if the Debbie Downers continue to insist on ruining this for everybody.  We have a very legit shot at a great January. Be happy!

[snow_wizard]

New Years is when it strikes us or when the pattern starts to evolve?

 

I'm betting the models will really start to crystallize on something good over the next two days.  The signs are there we have nearly arrived.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Probably the best way to show the ECMWF weeklies is to show the PNA graph. I'll bet it's been ages since we had a Janaury with -PNA the entire month. The last few updates of the weeklies have been mostly good, but this is the best yet. The 500mb mean and control both show some real cold in January as well.

Yeah, looking good! Nice solid negative dip around the middle of the month. Looks like a retrogression signal from the smaller dip earlier in the month.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Got  up to 41, down to 31 now. Feelz like winter. 

[Deweydog]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Just a warning.   I'm not going to even bother posting on here if the Debbie Downers continue to insist on ruining this for everybody.  We have a very legit shot at a great January. Be happy!

 

I mean, it's pretty realistic to be pessimistic about things.  It's how it usually goes here.  But obviously I'm hoping for the best.

[umadbro]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I'd like to take a look at the R2D2 model Dewey was talking about last winter.

[snow_wizard]

Got  up to 41, down to 31 now. Feelz like winter. 

 

It's nice to have these little chilly interludes until the big stuff arrives.

[Jesse]

Nice day on Mt. Hood.

 

[MossMan]

I'd like to take a look at the R2D2 model Dewey was talking about last winter.

I want to see the new Baby Yoda model!

[Cloud]

There are some serious cold and hot weenies here. I’m just glad most of us are in the middle ground to keep us sane.

[snow_wizard]

I mean, it's pretty realistic to be pessimistic about things.  It's how it usually goes here.  But obviously I'm hoping for the best.

 

It gets old.  We have had some decent stuff in recent years and the table is set perfectly for this winter.  I suppose the way the models have been so erratic is giving people a headache, but that's par for the course before most cold snaps.  The models often rush things too much early on.  The ECMWF is showing a good indication of the MJO emerging in the Maritime Continent region as we get into January.  Yet another good sign.

 

This has a very good shot at working out.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Probably the best way to show the ECMWF weeklies is to show the PNA graph.  I'll bet it's been ages since we had a Janaury with -PNA the entire month.  The last few updates of the weeklies have been mostly good, but this is the best yet.  The 500mb mean and control both show some real cold in January as well.

Looks like the last weeklies were better though.

 

Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

·

5h

January 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output.

 

Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like the last weeklies were better though.

 

Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

·

5h

January 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output.

 

Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising

 

EMgB9hHWwAUafDu.png

 

Exactly...it's not gonna happen.

[snow_wizard]

There are some serious cold and hot weenies here. I’m just glad most of us are in the middle ground to keep us sane.

 

I just get ticked off when it's pretty obvious something good is going to happen and people insist on being so negative.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the last weeklies were better though.

 

Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

·

5h

January 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output.

 

Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising

 

EMgB9hHWwAUafDu.png

 

That sure doesn't look right to me.

[MossMan]

Exactly...it's not gonna happen.

We actually have no clue what is going to happen.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I just get ticked off when it's pretty obvious something good is going to happen and people insist on being so negative.

Don't let it get to you man.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

That sure doesn't look right to me.

Maybe there was more sustained cold before or more extreme cold? This is the overall average change for the month.

[snow_wizard]

Exactly...it's not gonna happen.

 

Just wait and see.  Sheesh.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

There is 2 inches of snow on the ground at my cabin and that is the least amount there since 2011. Mountains really need to get in gear! This

[snow_wizard]

We actually have no clue what is going to happen.

 

It's going to get cold in January.  Plan on it.

[Cloud]

I just get ticked off when it's pretty obvious something good is going to happen and people insist on being so negative.

I hear ya. In the end, I just let the models speak because that will be the irrefutable facts and are louder than any negativity.

 

I have a lot of faith that we could be in for another back-loaded winter, just have to see. Stay positive Wiz.

[snow_wizard]

Anyway...there is no question the 500mb mean looks better than the previous ECMWF weekly runs.  This is what it looks like around January 10.  Around the same time the control shows a blast.

 

 

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like the last weeklies were better though.

 

Ryan Maue

@RyanMaue

·

5h

January 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output.

 

Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising

 

EMgB9hHWwAUafDu.png

I'm confused. That doesn't look anything like what was posted in my group. I dunno?

[Gradient Keeper]

Anyway...there is no question the 500mb mean looks better than the previous ECMWF weekly runs.  This is what it looks like around January 10.  Around the same time the control shows a blast.

That is certainly better. The base of the block further north, better amplification.

[GHweatherChris]

So many threats.

 

And I can interpret the models in a way that makes them look the way I want them too!!

[snow_wizard]

I hear ya. In the end, I just let the models speak because that will be the irrefutable facts and are louder than any negativity.

 

I have a lot of faith that we could be in for another back-loaded winter, just have to see. Stay positive Wiz.

 

I am positive, but obviously nobody believes me.  I have been watching this for more years than nearly anyone on here and all I can say is the table is set about as good as it can be.  Obviously people want to let their shitty negative attitude rule their forecasting.

[snow_wizard]

That is certainly better. The base of the block further north, better amplification.

 

I was going to say we are finally going to be doing away with the problem of too much energy digging into the SW and just off the coast of CA.