December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pls Tim's beloved EPS save us!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10 that block is setup nearly perfect for great things.

[Phil]

Does the GEFS run solely off of the old GFS? I figured the new GFS had its own ensemble mean at this point.

The new GFS does not have its own ensemble mean.

 

The GEFS was upgraded too, but the model physics were not upgraded in the same manner as the operational GFS.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Well not great model runs. But maybe average temps for January? Looks more interesting than December at least! That is a win. Balmy 44 degrees after a low of 37 this morning. 

[Deweydog]

[TT-SEA]

Day 10 that block is setup nearly perfect for great things.

If you run the loop... you can tell it's too progressive.

[stuffradio]

Daily fuzz!

 

[Phil]

The ECMWF/EPS are far superior to the GFS/GEFS and the CMC/GEPS. So I would actually agree with Tim et al that those should be given the most weight.

 

Of course every model/ensemble suite has biases, even the EPS, but some are more reliable than others.

[Weiner Warrior]

Marginal rain snow events are boring.

[Deweydog]

[Timmy Supercell]

December 29th is historically decent for snow here. If it weren't for that mid-2010's drought, I'd be running somewhere around 50-60% odds of having at least a few inches on the ground here. On 3 years (2015, 2012, 2010) there was between 9" and 18" inches on the ground within 24 hours of my birthday.

 

Currently bare, and a few patches of grass want to start greening.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Through hour 180 EPS looking very similar to last nights EPS at the same hour

[Jesse]

The new GFS does not have its own ensemble mean.

The GEFS was upgraded too, but the model physics were not upgraded in the same manner as the operational GFS.

That’s weird.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles. 

[Jesse]

I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles.

 

Haven’t heard much from IbsChris in awhile.

[Timmy]

I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles.

we will have to see the emails and get a copy of the conference call transcripts

[MossMan]

I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles.

JAYA!

[TT-SEA]

Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here.

 

[Deweydog]

I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles and, more importantly, the CFS.

Fixed

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Haven’t heard much from IbsChris in awhile.

 

He thinks the upcoming pattern has potential for about 5-7F departures if things shake out right. Highs around 40 in the lowlands. This is as currently modeled. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here.

 

 

[Deweydog]

He thinks the upcoming pattern has potential for about 5-7F departures if things shake out right. Highs around 40 in the lowlands. This is as currently modeled.

Not bad for April.

[Winterdog]

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EURO Op Day 8-10 for PDX is cold and snowy on Day 10. Only 10 days out!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here.

 

Doesn't look very much different at the 270 hour marker than last nights.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10-15 on the EPS should shape up pretty nice.

[Front Ranger]

No I wasn’t. Stop talking out of your a**.

Yes, you were. I don't make stuff up.

 

It's not a big deal. Just don't make inaccurate statements like that and you won't get called out.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here.

 

It was also focused on the East at the same hour on last nights 0Z run.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

 

[TT-SEA]

Some cold air by day 11 per the 12Z EPS...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS looks very cold in January for the Eastern 2/3 of the Contiguous. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday it was going to happen Tim!

 

 

If it stays consistent... it will happen.  

 

Its probably not going to happen until after day 11 though.

[Deweydog]

Could catch the tail end of inversion season!

[Front Ranger]

Flatiron loves to invent imaginary Phil forecasts that never existed every time he busts a forecast.

 

I forecasted a warm December in the West. I thought the pattern would flip cold for the CONUS in late December then for the West later on. I was too fast with the flip. Oops.

You went +1 at SEA for December in the forecast contest.

 

And in early December, you were absolutely talking about watching for things to turn interesting around the solstice. We both thought December would end on a lot colder note than it has. Oh well.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... at hour 294:

 

 

 

00Z EPS at the same time:

 

 

A shift east and weaker on the 12Z run but still cold.

[Winterdog]

I guess the EPS is always right when it’s consistent but when it stops being consistent for the same timeframe it can be wrong unless it becomes consistent again.. then it’s right. Is that correct?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Very pretty day up in the okanagan

[Front Ranger]

Some cold air by day 11 per the 12Z EPS...

 

There it is.

[Gradient Keeper]

Only 4-5 days away from the point the kona low may develop. Not a lot of time left for models to waver back and forth on whether or not it develops. Won't be resolved until I think Monday 00z perhaps Tuesday runs. IF we trend back to the Kona we're in store for a lot of Cold and........  Snow? ....

 

00z ECMWF in 10 hours 6 minutes