TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Pls Tim's beloved EPS save us!!! Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 10 that block is setup nearly perfect for great things. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Does the GEFS run solely off of the old GFS? I figured the new GFS had its own ensemble mean at this point.The new GFS does not have its own ensemble mean. The GEFS was upgraded too, but the model physics were not upgraded in the same manner as the operational GFS. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Well not great model runs. But maybe average temps for January? Looks more interesting than December at least! That is a win. Balmy 44 degrees after a low of 37 this morning. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 10 that block is setup nearly perfect for great things.If you run the loop... you can tell it's too progressive. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Daily fuzz! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The ECMWF/EPS are far superior to the GFS/GEFS and the CMC/GEPS. So I would actually agree with Tim et al that those should be given the most weight. Of course every model/ensemble suite has biases, even the EPS, but some are more reliable than others. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Marginal rain snow events are boring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted December 29, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 December 29th is historically decent for snow here. If it weren't for that mid-2010's drought, I'd be running somewhere around 50-60% odds of having at least a few inches on the ground here. On 3 years (2015, 2012, 2010) there was between 9" and 18" inches on the ground within 24 hours of my birthday. Currently bare, and a few patches of grass want to start greening. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Through hour 180 EPS looking very similar to last nights EPS at the same hour Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 The new GFS does not have its own ensemble mean.The GEFS was upgraded too, but the model physics were not upgraded in the same manner as the operational GFS.That’s weird. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles. 2 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles. Haven’t heard much from IbsChris in awhile. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles. we will have to see the emails and get a copy of the conference call transcripts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles.JAYA! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I was talking to a pro met on Facebook, who occasionally posts here. He said after day 7 don't look at the operational, look at the ensembles and, more importantly, the CFS.Fixed 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Haven’t heard much from IbsChris in awhile. He thinks the upcoming pattern has potential for about 5-7F departures if things shake out right. Highs around 40 in the lowlands. This is as currently modeled. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 He thinks the upcoming pattern has potential for about 5-7F departures if things shake out right. Highs around 40 in the lowlands. This is as currently modeled.Not bad for April. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 12z EURO Op Day 8-10 for PDX is cold and snowy on Day 10. Only 10 days out! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here. Doesn't look very much different at the 270 hour marker than last nights. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Day 10-15 on the EPS should shape up pretty nice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 No I wasn’t. Stop talking out of your a**.Yes, you were. I don't make stuff up. It's not a big deal. Just don't make inaccurate statements like that and you won't get called out. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Cold air is definitely focused to the east on the 12z EPS at 204 hours... we will see where it goes from here. It was also focused on the East at the same hour on last nights 0Z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 2 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Some cold air by day 11 per the 12Z EPS... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 CFS looks very cold in January for the Eastern 2/3 of the Contiguous. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Yesterday it was going to happen Tim! If it stays consistent... it will happen. Its probably not going to happen until after day 11 though. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Could catch the tail end of inversion season! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Flatiron loves to invent imaginary Phil forecasts that never existed every time he busts a forecast. I forecasted a warm December in the West. I thought the pattern would flip cold for the CONUS in late December then for the West later on. I was too fast with the flip. Oops.You went +1 at SEA for December in the forecast contest. And in early December, you were absolutely talking about watching for things to turn interesting around the solstice. We both thought December would end on a lot colder note than it has. Oh well. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 12Z EPS... at hour 294: 00Z EPS at the same time: A shift east and weaker on the 12Z run but still cold. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 I guess the EPS is always right when it’s consistent but when it stops being consistent for the same timeframe it can be wrong unless it becomes consistent again.. then it’s right. Is that correct? 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 29, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Very pretty day up in the okanagan 12 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Some cold air by day 11 per the 12Z EPS... There it is. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 29, 2019 Report Share Posted December 29, 2019 Only 4-5 days away from the point the kona low may develop. Not a lot of time left for models to waver back and forth on whether or not it develops. Won't be resolved until I think Monday 00z perhaps Tuesday runs. IF we trend back to the Kona we're in store for a lot of Cold and........ Snow? .... 00z ECMWF in 10 hours 6 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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