December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Winterdog]

I have a feeling tonight’s Euro will do a total cave. January suckage forthcoming.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Honestly I don't see how this GFS run is any worse than any other run the past 2 days. Chilly with lotsa mountain snow. 

[Deweydog]

I propose it is renamed the "Kahalui Low."

Thank you!!!

 

Their Costco is nice.

[Esquimalt]

I have a feeling tonight’s Euro will do a total cave. January suckage forthcoming.

Totally agree. At least half January suckage

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This is not half as bad as you guys are making it out to be. 

[Deweydog]

Honestly I don't see how this GFS run is any worse than any other run the past 2 days. Chilly with lotsa mountain snow.

I agree. The theme seems to be a very progressive pattern with some higher heights sneaking up toward the Aleutians but no sign of any meaningful blocking any time soon. Not great, not horrible.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Eugene is incapable of having a solid Dec-Jan event outside of early 2017 it’s been virtually nothing outside of Feb.

[Timmy]

Thank you!!!

 

Their Costco is nice.

it opens at like 10 tho, which is annoying cause I’m always stuck on pacific time and up early there

[BLI snowman]

I cannot believe anybody could still have doubts about this!

[BLI snowman]

Honestly I don't see how this GFS run is any worse than any other run the past 2 days. Chilly with lotsa mountain snow. 

 

People are looking for something with this pattern that simply isn't there. As evidenced by the outlandish mentions of 1989 earlier today.

[BLI snowman]

Eugene is incapable of having a solid Dec-Jan event outside of early 2017 it’s been virtually nothing outside of Feb.

 

Lamest -10 degree day of all time back in December 2013.

[Deweydog]

it opens at like 10 tho, which is annoying cause I’m always stuck on pacific time and up early there

Yeah I was up before 6 every day we were there last summer. Very annoying. I blame the Kona low.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah I was up before 6 every day we were there last summer. Very annoying. I blame the Kona low.

Me too. Up at 5:30 every morning and really tired by 9:30 in the evening.

[Requiem]

Eugene is incapable of having a solid Dec-Jan event outside of early 2017 it’s been virtually nothing outside of Feb.

January 2008 was decent, and December 2013 was pretty epic in your area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

People are looking for something with this pattern that simply isn't there. As evidenced by the outlandish mentions of 1989 earlier today.

 

I totally agree. What is being show is still fairly chilly airmasses which could potentially produce some decently chilly days, especially if any kind of low level cold establishes. Certainly no torches, all it would take would be one low to come in south of someone and create some offshore flow with a decently cool airmass, and someone could see a few flakes. Not sexy potential, but a lot better than say the previous two Januaries. 

[Winterdog]

It’s not bad when played against our usual fare but sucks compared to where we were sitting a couple days ago. Yeah we could still get a good setup eventually but odds are not good.

[Deweydog]

It’s not bad when played against our usual fare but sucks compared to where we were sitting a couple days ago. Yeah we could still get a good setup eventually but odds are not good.

Those were pretty typical flashes, still with only hints of a potential for continental flavor. Remove some of the unfettered hyperbole and the rest is pretty straightforward.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 9 a lot better than the GFS. Amplify!!!!

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long range GFS is just kind of a meandering mess. But it still is not warm. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Dud

[Winterdog]

Those were pretty typical flashes, still with only hints of a potential for continental flavor. Remove some of the unfettered hyperbole and the rest is pretty straightforward.

Many on this forum live for those flashes. I hate to admit that I have been guilty myself.

[Deweydog]

Many on this forum live for those flashes. I hate to admit that I have been guilty myself.

Nuttin’ wrong with dat.

[Gradient Keeper]

Many steps backwards tonight and there's no sugarcoating or pretending its not bad. It's bad. We'll see if this is a trend or the final trend I guess. If this continue through 00z tomorrow that would be game over.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Many steps backwards tonight and there's no sugarcoating or pretending its not bad. It's bad. We'll see if this is a trend or the final trend I guess. If this continue through 00z tomorrow that would be game over.

 

How was this not essentially the same as earlier runs today?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run was only worse if you were expecting the models to flip back to their coldest solutions from 2-3 days ago. Not going to happen. 

[Deweydog]

MLK

[Requiem]

If we’re not getting snow, can we get a windstorm? We’re ridiculously overdue for a nice one. 12/14/06 comes to mind as the last truly great windstorm to hit the PACNW (not counting the Great Coastal Gale cause that wasn’t impressive in inland areas).

[The Swamp]

Jim can you help me? How did this all fall apart?

[The Swamp]

All I got to make so far is a hail storm monster.

[TT-SEA]

Jim can you help me? How did this all fall apart?

It hasn't. Everything is on track.

[BLI snowman]

If we’re not getting snow, can we get a windstorm? We’re ridiculously overdue for a nice one. 12/14/06 comes to mind as the last truly great windstorm to hit the PACNW (not counting the Great Coastal Gale cause that wasn’t impressive in inland areas).

 

Honestly you're kind of a broken record at this point.

[Requiem]

Honestly you're kind of a broken record at this point.

Well thanks for that, makes me feel real good. Wind is my snow, so to speak. I like both, but it’s been a while for the former.

[The Swamp]

I need some Zoloft and a beer.

[BLI snowman]

Well thanks for that, makes me feel real good. Wind is my snow, so to speak. I like both, but it’s been a while for the former.

 

Just giving you some honest advice. It doesn't add a lot to a discussion to make the same basic point over and over about us not seeing major windstorms recently. You're free to root for what you like, but I would encourage you to do a little research or break a little new ground rather than making the same despairing posts repeatedly.

[Gradient Keeper]

GEFS stopped running at HR 312 refusing to either let us see how amazing Day 13-16 is, or isn't.....

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This doesn't look half bad. Maybe the pattern change was detected just a bit too early.

 

I will say it's pretty crazy that the operational ended up being right with the more prominent ridge over us and more west-based GOA block while literally every single ensemble member was wrong. That must have been some sort of upgrade done to it when it's the only one out of 20 members to get it right.

 

Not sure if the age old adage "always listen to the ensembles" can be said so much anymore.

This only ever works when it’s predicting warm.

[Gradient Keeper]

If we’re not getting snow, can we get a windstorm? We’re ridiculously overdue for a nice one. 12/14/06 comes to mind as the last truly great windstorm to hit the PACNW (not counting the Great Coastal Gale cause that wasn’t impressive in inland areas).

Yeah, I feel you on that. It's frustrating for wind storm lovers.

[Requiem]

Just giving you some honest advice. It doesn't add a lot to a discussion to make the same basic point over and over about us not seeing major windstorms recently. You're free to root for what you like, but I would encourage you to do a little research or break a little new ground rather than making the same despairing posts repeatedly.

I mean, other people cheer for snow incessantly. Am I really any different from any of those posters? Sure, I’ll try to “break new ground” as you claim I should do, but I’m hardly the only person who’s guilty of this pattern. I’m not the most well-versed in weather as a whole, and have been called out in the past over faulty information. So typically I stay out of that stuff because I know there are smarter people on here.

 

I agree that I sometimes use my posts as a way to b*tch about the weather. Guilty as charged.

[Winterdog]

How was this not essentially the same as earlier runs today?

The block has set up farther west than previous runs, the colder periods of onshore flow are not quite as cold and are shorter in duration and there looks to be zero lowland snow where previous runs have generally had some. But you are correct, generally it’s not much different

[Gradient Keeper]

I mean, other people cheer for snow incessantly. Am I really any different from any of those posters? Sure, I’ll try to “break new ground” as you claim I should do, but I’m hardly the only person who’s guilty of this pattern. I’m not the most well-versed in weather as a whole, and have been called out in the past over faulty information. So typically I stay out of that stuff because I know there are smarter people on here.

 

I agree that I sometimes use my posts as a way to b*tch about the weather. Guilty as charged.

You can't let poor model runs or what seems like a "bust" or things are falling apart to dictate your mood, trust me, and others shouldn't either. I see that's occurring though. It is what it is. We can't control what we can't control.

 

00z ECMWF beginning now. Root for a miracle