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A dusting of white looking out my weather window  

Yep. BIG improvement in fact. Block/positive anomaly is further west in the sweet spot. The cold isn't dumping out off Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. Heights in BC/AB dramatically lower than previous

Just going off this webcam image I'm pretty jealous of anyone on Mt. Hood right now.

Posted Images

Pattern still looks like splitsville thru day 7/8

I think there could be a week of meaningful precipitation and storminess before the next dry/blocky stretch gets going. And when it gets going..lots of folks are gonna freeze.

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12z GFS wasn't too bad. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Ensembles are terrible. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

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Another heavy band of precipitation coming through Salem....looks like last night again but tracking more NNW

 

Just getting clipped by the east section of that band here. Temp has dropped from 38 to 35. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

 

Time to check the CFS!

 

Looks cold in the east to end December.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

Can’t wait to see it come to life! 

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42 and cloudy. Snowed lightly for about 30 minutes this morning but I didn’t stay up watching for long it since it was 38-40 degree snow. Ground is still dry so even if it was cold enough there hasn’t been much precip in my area.

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Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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42 and cloudy. Snowed lightly for about 30 minutes this morning but I didn’t stay up watching for long it since it was 38-40 degree snow. Ground is still dry so even if it was cold enough there hasn’t been much precip in my area.

 

Yeah we only had about a tenth of an inch of precip here. Ground is wet, but still mostly frozen. One of the nice things about our soil up here though is that it drains very well. Doesn't ever get super muddy. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Looking forward to what looks like at this point a more active weather pattern as we head into December. Maybe we will get really wet through the first half of the month, then we get cold and snowy in the second half.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.39”

Cold season rainfall-25.42”

Snowfall-Tr.

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Going to end up the coldest year at Salem probably since at least 2012. If they can end up with a -0.9 departure or lower for December it would be their first below average annual mean since 2011...Seems like a bit of a long shot, but with inversions who knows. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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That melting started fast.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃

Think Cold and SNOW???? ❄❄☃☃

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Hello December 2019! Last month of this decade. Hopefully we can end this decade with a massive Arctic Blast and a regional snowstorm! ❄⛄

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

AO tends to be kind of meaningless for the west. Mixed results with that signal.
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All told, ended up with a solid dusting last night. Calling it 0.1" might be a stretch, even though there was probably that much on some surfaces. But it was a fun little event with the snow in the air and the wind, and a great way to kick off the winter season

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Pattern still looks like splitsville thru day 7/8

 

 

12Z ECMWF splits the late week trough more than previous runs as well.   A bit drier as a result... and it was not really that wet on previous runs.  

 

Average opening date at Snoqualmie Summit is December 7th... no chance of that this year. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow.   

 

A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes.    This run does not even tease us.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I’m getting pumped up for some insane blocking from the winter solstice to late Jan/early Feb. Love the signs I’m seeing..downward propagating -U anoms within the NAM domain in conjunction with a well-timed EHEM MJO & AAM transfer(s). All preceded by this +EAMT/Aleutian Low regime for additional wave-1 forcing.

 

Watch the EPO and AO during the last 10 days of December into January. ☃️

Bottom line how does it effect the pnw

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More blue sky now.

 

YaFn35r.jpg

Gorgeous! Snow always seems to look better with blue skies in the background.

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<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Up to 0.12" of rain since midnight. Well ahead of November's pace. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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A dusting of white looking out my weather window

 

B740DAA1-80D1-4A85-8585-7086F2E07531.jpeg

Nice, how far from the lake do you live?

<p><font size="3"><font color="purple"><b>Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.</font></b></font></font>

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Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow.

 

A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes. This run does not even tease us.

Could very well stay split flow most of winter. We've been doomed with this before.

We come from the land of the ice and snow.

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I'm guessing the 57 at Vancouver was an error...

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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The 00Z EPS actually showed a decent mountain snow pattern in the 10-15 day period with zonal flow eventually carving out a trough across most of the CONUS.    Hopefully it still shows that on the 12Z run.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.

 

Haven’t had a Dec-Jan event here of more than 6” or so since I moved to Oregon IIRC. Feb has so often been the big winner.

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Springfield, Oregon cold season 20-21 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 38F (Nov 21)
  • Coldest low: 23F (Oct 26)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 26 (Most recent: Dec 29, 2020)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 3 (Most recent: Dec 24)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24

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40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.

Are these two statements supposed to be somehow related?

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40F in Springfield. There’s no way this isn’t going to be a dud winter at this point. Classic shitt niño patterns. Glad I got nailed last winter because it’s not going to happen here for a while. We are due for a stretch of shitt.

 

Haven’t had a Dec-Jan event here of more than 6” or so since I moved to Oregon IIRC. Feb has so often been the big winner.

 

Yeah, no sign it won't be. We even have Justin on board for a 2004-05 redux!

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Still think I'm going to score this winter, just not this time. For openers, I'm in a favored location. Odds are I'll get the goods in some event where Seattle and points south get shafted. If Seattle's getting dumped on, it tends to be just dry and windy here. Conversely, it's easily possible Seattle to be in the low forties and getting rain while Whatcom County is solidly below freezing and getting a good snowstorm.

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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The 00Z EPS actually showed a decent mountain snow pattern in the 10-15 day period with zonal flow eventually carving out a trough across most of the CONUS.    Hopefully it still shows that on the 12Z run.  

It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational.  And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.

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Gorgeous! Snow always seems to look better with blue skies in the background.

 

Yeah it is! Here was Christmas Day 2018.

 

D9tan9X.jpg

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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Yeah, no sign it won't be. We even have Justin on board for a 2004-05 redux!

 

What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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