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It does seem like the EPS has been much more consistent than the operational.  And it has been consistent with the timing of that too.

I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.

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A dusting of white looking out my weather window  

Yep. BIG improvement in fact. Block/positive anomaly is further west in the sweet spot. The cold isn't dumping out off Alaska into the Gulf of Alaska. Heights in BC/AB dramatically lower than previous

Just going off this webcam image I'm pretty jealous of anyone on Mt. Hood right now.

Posted Images

RIP Winter 2019-2020.

 

We're less than 12 hours into Meteorological Winter and we're making statements like this.  :lol:  :lol:  :lol:

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

 

 

It was terrible during winter... ski season was non-existent.

 

But I think there was lots of mountain snow very late in the season... like into April.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Christmas morning 2016...  :)

 

15625918_1189594527775420_37694496720667

 

That's a really good photo!!

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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards.  

 

This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-63464

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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AO tends to be kind of meaningless for the west. Mixed results with that signal.

That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

 

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)

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Well sh*t... the 12Z ECMWF could not be much worse for mountain snow.   

 

A consolidated jet pattern just never gets here... its always in the 7-10 day range and then vanishes.    This run does not even tease us.    

 

I like where it's going at the end.

Low. Solar.

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The vast majority of “correlations” in wx/climate are in fact nonlinear/varying. Yet we’re always looking for those simple, linear, 1-to-1 linear correlations.

 

Unfortunately, those are rare and almost always short lived (geologically) and/or state-dependent.

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EPS looks about like the operational run through day 10... and then moves that GOA trough inland afterwards.  

 

This looks like a decent pattern in the long range... and it has been consistently showing this for the last several runs.

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500-anom-63464

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-t850-anom-strea

The only difference that I see is that the EPS is a bit quicker, consistent with the timing of previous EPS runs.

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I’m hard pressed to think of any occasions where an ensemble mean is consistently less consistent than its operational counterpart. It seems like they are more consistent by nature.

Correct. The sheer number of permutations blended into the mean statistically renders this so.

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That’s a misframing. Believe it or not, the AO/NAM is always a primary driver of your weather, but its effects vary significantly and nonlinearly depending on other wave structures and forcings (reflected via local, smaller-scale teleconnective EOFs such as the PNA and EPO).

 

So you probably won’t find any linear correlation between the AO/NAM and PNW winter weather, but they are most certain related. ;)

 

Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...

Low. Solar.

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I like where it's going at the end.

Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run.

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Not sure what you’re seeing. Except for the developing block at the pole I don’t see much to be excited about on that run.

 

Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.

Low. Solar.

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Next you're gonna tell us a +PNA is good...

I guess that depends on your subjective preferences. ;)

 

If you want a firehose jet and lots of precip like Tim (or his doppelgänger) then yeah a +PNA would be what delivers that (extended East-Asian jet/+MT probably over warm pool exhaust).

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Just the way the pattern is progressing. Looks to me like strong blocking is about to re-emerge on both the Pacific and Atlantic sides, and yes the block at the pole is promising for delivering PV displacement.

Hmm. I don’t see the first two..looks like meager RWD to me. The NAM is preparing to flip, but that wouldn’t be in the range of the Euro or its ensembles for the most part.

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Or I could be full of it. That’s just my interpretation..not easy to extrapolate these things beyond 5 days.

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Chilly but dry day up here so far. I’m a few miles north from my house at a dog agility competition so I don’t have a temp but the clouds definitely kept the chill in. Have we ever had a prolonged split flow hell pattern happen around this time of the year and still get arctic nailed later in the season? I don’t recall one in my lifetime. As much as I do not want to agree with Phil and I don’t agree with his assessment of not needing a -PNA for the “goodies” out here...However I will say this sure seems like we are currently in an El Niño state. Sure hope that fades quickly.

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After the historically dry November a mild wetter December is the best sign possible for January. A continuation of cool and dry would probably signal a 76-77 redux. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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What was cascade pack like in 2004-2005? I at least think there should be some snow in the PNW, just nothing is screaming big wildfire season next summer.

 

https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

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Raining pretty hard out there, first rainfall of December and first measurable rainfall since 11/26. Was a nice cold snap we had, light, non-accumulating snow on 11/26 and 12/1. Few nights in the mid 20s. Looking forward to a more active wetter pattern though.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.33”

Cold season rainfall-25.36”

Snowfall-Tr.

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November ended with 1.83” of rainfall, drier than September (2.84”) and October (4.04”). Barely wetter than August, which had 1.57” of rainfall. We’re at 23.39” of rainfall for the year.

Cold season stats  

Coldest low-30

Coldest high-38

Freezes-6

Monthly rainfall-8.33”

Cold season rainfall-25.36”

Snowfall-Tr.

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https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

 

Some interesting data there. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some yellow radar echoes over my area... result on the ground is a few fat snowflakes falling and 39 degrees.   

 

The frost that had stayed in the shade in the backyard all week has finally disappeared. 

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I think there is some opportunity in late December/January, but the deck is definitely stacked against us. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

 

I remember '14-'15  :lol:

 

Well at least in the Fall it rained and we had endless windstorms regionally.

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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It’s literally the first day of winter.

 

I think she was joking. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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12z CFS running. Out to hour 408.

 

500h_anom.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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https://www.timberlinelodge.com/mountain/historical-snow-data

 

2004-05 ranks as one of the four worst snow years ever recorded at Timberline Lodge, right down with 14-15, 76-77, and 80-81

 

Does Crater Lake have a site similar to this?

Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

2010-2011 - 60.70" (168%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 25.10" (70%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
2019-2020 - 37.00" (103%)
 
2020-2021 - 07.50"
Nov '20 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '20 - 04.40" (44%)
Jan '21 - 02.90"
 
2021 Thunderstorms
--/--,
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 6.00" (01/16/2020), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 13.00" (01/16/2020), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 10 (2020), 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 12 (2017), 13 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011)
1980-2015 Avg = 12
Severe T'storms: 6 (08/05/2020), (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 

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I'm not sure what the actual precip totals were but I'm gonna hand the NAM the win over the GFS as far as that goes. GFS was way too dry with this and the NAM actually nailed all the juicy precip rates coming up the coast range and western half of the metro. 

 

Pretty ridiculous how much more wet the 00z NAM is when compared to the 00z GFS given that this is just a few hours away now.

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

Pretty ridiculous how much more wet the 00z NAM is when compared to the 00z GFS given that this is just a few hours away now.

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

qpf_acc.us_nw.png

 

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I'm not sure what the actual precip totals were but I'm gonna hand the NAM the win over the GFS as far as that goes. GFS was way too dry with this and the NAM actually nailed all the juicy precip rates coming up the coast range and western half of the metro. 

 

Precip at SLE, EUG, HIO, PDX was anywhere from 0.07"-0.16"... I would say the GFS was spot on if not a little too wet. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Some western troughing returns around the 20th.

500h_anom.na.png

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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Courtesy of Brian Schmidt. Very sobering list. 

 

78654688_2863403907011321_19679228378595

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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I'm not sure what the actual precip totals were but I'm gonna hand the NAM the win over the GFS as far as that goes. GFS was way too dry with this and the NAM actually nailed all the juicy precip rates coming up the coast range and western half of the metro. 

 

Only .03 here so far.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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2015-16 climo would suggest this is a possibility.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2020-21: 0.5"                        2020-21: 27.38"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 

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