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12/9 - 12/11 Upper MW/GL's System


Tom

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Over the past couple days, the models have been flashing the idea of a system forming near the TX Panhandle/OK region and tracking up near the OHV.  While there are differences in track and strength, there seems to be a solid trend that we may be tracking a potential significant winter storm.

 

 

Let's discuss....

 

 

18z GEFS came in juicier and showing more development farther SW which bodes well for a lot of us on here. I like the grouping near OK and a quicker storm development as it tracks ENE towards the Lower Lakes.

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

 

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_24.png

 

 

 

Thus, the snow shield expanded farther west...let's see where this trends over the coming days.  It certainly looks like Winter is coming back early next week!

 

 

snod.conus.png

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The last 10 GEFS runs definitely trending towards a stronger southern energy which has been one of the "hot spots" of storm development this season.  I'm very encouraged that we are seeing these trends and hopefully they continue.

 

 

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:)

 

APX is onboard..

 

20191204 APX Storm Graphic.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The last 10 GEFS runs definitely trending towards a stronger southern energy which has been one of the "hot spots" of storm development this season.  I'm very encouraged that we are seeing these trends and hopefully they continue.

 

Notice that the HB vortex is shown much stronger in final frame. Will that keep this from cutting hard?? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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GRR

 

Next weather feature of interest is a sfc low which develops

along the stalled frontal zone Sunday night/Monday then moves
northeast. Still some uncertainty regarding the timing, track and
strength of this wave, but at this time it looks like mostly a
rain scenario on Monday, changing to snow Monday night as the wave
tracks by and pulls in the colder air. If the wave tracks far
enough south and is delayed until Monday night though there may
be a risk of some synoptic wet snow accumulations - especially
for northern areas.

 

Kudos to them for at least mentioning the snowier outcome possibilities. That's all I ask, a courtesy mention. 

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Notice that the HB vortex is shown much stronger in final frame. Will that keep this from cutting hard??

I’m seeing a stronger surface HP directly discharged from the Arctic due to the -EPO. This can also displace the Hudson Bay Vortex farthe south.

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I’m seeing a stronger surface HP directly discharged from the Arctic due to the -EPO. This can also displace the Hudson Bay Vortex farthe south.

 

:huh:  But..but..what happened to our torch-n-bore December?? Is it "going up in flakes"?? 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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TWC is even on board saying that rain will potentially go ova to heavy snow and wind monday night into Tuesday morning. We will see!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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ENWMajorStorm.jpeg?w=632

With a potent storm in mind, there is a significant risk of heavy snow and strong winds over the western and northern Great Lakes region. At least one of the major hubs of Chicago or Detroit would be hit hard by such a storm, resulting in significant travel delays.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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0z GFS fairly weak. More in line with the 12z Euro where the clipper stays north and nothing develops south and east.

The GFS is super fast with the flow, it will be interesting to see if it trends back slower and stronger with the southern piece.  My money is on the slower stronger look.

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Here's a look at the GFS mean and ensembles, which seem to be painting a colder snowier storm and more in line with the LRC.

 

1576108800-2mqoaRsV090.png

1576108800-JzXZ1PqW9LU.png

 

I agree, the GFS/GEFS are certainly showing the southern wave developing a lot better instead of a strung out system per the Euro.  I have to say, this would be a big coupe by the GFS if it materializes.  Maybe the Euro comes back in today's midday run.  

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I agree, the GFS/GEFS are certainly showing the southern wave developing a lot better instead of a strung out system per the Euro.  I have to say, this would be a big coupe by the GFS if it materializes.  Maybe the Euro comes back in today's midday run.  

 

I agree, the GFS/GEFS are certainly showing the southern wave developing a lot better instead of a strung out system per the Euro.  I have to say, this would be a big coupe by the GFS if it materializes.  Maybe the Euro comes back in today's midday run.  

Ya I think the GFS/GEFS is in the lead right now.  The Euro also doesn't seem to be depicting the cold right as well.

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Des Moines current take on it:

A more substantial change is expected into early next week as the

upper flow amplifies across the central United States. Increased

forcing is expected by late Sunday night into Monday with the

approach of the upper trof/shortwave. While the airmass is

initially dry, sustained lift will eventually lead to saturation

in northern Iowa by early Monday with an increased threat of snow.

Farther south, forcing is not as strong with widespread clouds but

a much more limited threat of precipitation. Winds will be quite

strong on Monday given the robust cold advection behind the

surface front and have increased the wind velocity. Otherwise, a

decent thermal trof approaches by Tuesday with 850mb temperatures

of -18C to -23C into the state. This in combination with the wind

will lower wind chills to near or below zero across the entire

area by Tuesday morning. Only slight improvement is seen into the

middle of the week, albeit with dry conditions.

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Look-out down south....

 

20191205_070215.jpg.1825ba4a5b414f953729

 

This thread was for the first storm early next week bud. I guess the late week/end event can be posted in the Dec thread for now?  Again, I doubt it stays that far south. I think we've got a shot with this one. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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This thread was for the first storm early next week bud. I guess the late week/end event can be posted in the Dec thread for now?  Again, I doubt it stays that far south. I think we've got a shot with this one. 

Yep..you are right. I'll remove it buddy. Thanks for reminding me. :)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yep..you are right. I'll remove it buddy. Thanks for reminding me. :)

 

Nice avatar picture btw! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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WPC says the north gets even snowier. N Stream clipper system + LES following:

 

20191205 hazards_d3_7.png

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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APX

 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)

Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

High Impact Weather: Potential winter storm early next week followed
by cold temps.

On Sunday, a trough across central Canada will develop a cyclone
near Hudson Bay. A cold front associated with this system is
expected to sweep down across southern Ontario and the northern
Great Lakes late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures warm ahead of this
and will support rain later Sunday into Monday before the arrival of
the next system, which is the main focus of this period. This
cyclone will develop in the southern Great Plains early Monday
before quickly moving/deepening along the previously mentioned
boundary into the southern Great Lakes.
Rain, wintry mix, and snow
are all possible across northern Michigan with this system. However,
considerable uncertainty still exists regarding details and
locations of greatest impacts. Behind this system, very cold air
encompasses the area with temperatures in the single digits/teens
beginning Wednesday through the end of the week with wind chills
below zero possible.

&&
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Here’s MPX’s take right now:

 

QPF has increased on the deterministic models to between

0.25-0.4 inches along a stripe across the CWA. The ensembles

aren`t quite this wet, aside from the highest members. So, still

some uncertainty with this snow forecast. Snow ratios should be

high as temperatures fall into the teens, thinking at least 15:1.

This is bolstered by light winds along the cold front that only

begin to strengthen toward the end of the snow. Deterministic

models would suggest 4-8 inches, while the ensemble mean would be

more like 2-4.

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HeaviestSnow.jpeg?w=632

A shift in the track of the storm could spread accumulating snow farther south toward Chicago or Detroit.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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