12/15 - 12/17 Plains/OHV Slider

[Tom]

18z GFS...

 

 

[Tom]

The run-to-run consistency on track from the GFS is crazy...

 

 

 

[Stacsh]

GRR went from all in to out in 12 hours. What a clown office

[bud2380]

GFS keeps giving us hope.  Ha ha.  

[mlgamer]

18z GFS cut my snow totals in half and placed me close to the southern edge. Not going to panic over one run, BUTTTT.....it feels like I've seen this movie before.

[MIKEKC]

Where’s that 18z Euro at???...Clinton

 

Out yet?

 

Latest GFS is still targeting KC for late this weekend. Hopefully the trend will continue. We’re ready for one

[Clinton]

18z GFS...

20 miles further north and I'm in big trouble!

[Clinton]

Where’s that 18z Euro at???...Clinton

 

Out yet?

 

Latest GFS is still targeting KC for late this weekend. Hopefully the trend will continue. We’re ready for one

18z Euro rolls out between 6 and 7. We are do!

[Grizzcoat]

My .02 cents on the GFS (18z) coming back N, no upper air soundings. I don't trust the 06 and 18z - on any model runs, esp the GFS. Many say it makes no difference and I beg to differ if you watch close and compare to what actually transpires

[Clinton]

18z GFS mean nudges north.

[Clinton]

My .02 cents on the GFS (18z) coming back N, no upper air soundings. I don't trust the 06 and 18z - on any model runs, esp the GFS. Many say it makes no difference and I beg to differ if you watch close and compare to what actually transpires

Grizz I agree with you and it's real evident with the ICON runs.

[St Paul Storm]

My .02 cents on the GFS (18z) coming back N, no upper air soundings. I don't trust the 06 and 18z - on any model runs, esp the GFS. Many say it makes no difference and I beg to differ if you watch close and compare to what actually transpires

I’d tend to agree. It’s always interesting to click through the previous model runs to see how they compare. More times than not there’s a definite trend between the 6z/18 runs and 0z/12z runs in terms of low placement, etc.

[Clinton]

18z EC Kansas City scores a direct hit

[Clinton]

18z EPS mean

 

[Clinton]

SREF beginning to come into range, only goes 87hrs.

[Tom]

18z EPS mean

 

Slowly starting to take a turn towards the Lower GL's...caving towards the GEFS???  LOL

[Clinton]

Slowly starting to take a turn towards the Lower GL's...caving towards the GEFS???  LOL

Just insane, but it's about time for the GFS to give a little, it wants to send my snow to Iowa lol.

[MIKEKC]

Thanks for the maps, Clinton.

 

Next up, NAM model.

[Niko]

Idk what exactly scenario #1 was, but this is indeed what we want to see happen..

 

 

That scenario could produce the BD amounts that one Euro run had (and some recent GFS runs)

#1 takes it way too far south. Gives very little snow.

[Clinton]

NWS KC is buying in.

aturday into early Sunday will remain quiet, yet cold, with
increasing cloud cover ahead of an approaching, deepening trough
over the Intermountain West. Increased convergence ahead of this
system will provide a broad area of forcing for ascent across Kansas
into the Ozarks. Latest mid-range guidance from the ECMWF and GFS
are in general agreement, synoptically, along with the Canadian and
GEFS Mean. Temperature profiles suggest initial precipitation will
be light snow, with better chances through the afternoon and
evening. Overnight, snow chances increase and the the possibility of
accumulating snow is more than likely. The uncertainty in where the
greatest snowfall will occur into Monday morning remains. The latest
GFS has adjusted at skosh, but remains farther north with the upper
low track and surface low track than the ECMWF or Canadian, which
have been maintaining a more Ozark track of the potential TROWL
development and highest liquid equivalent. As of now, a wide
swath of at least 1 to 3 inches is possible across much of
eastern Kansas into western and central Missouri. Locally higher
amounts could approach 5 inches across east central Kansas into
mid-Missouri.

[Niko]

Welp..

 

DTX also forecasting a major GFS cave-in pending..

 

 

 

I see they key in on the confluence from the Gulf Low that's not far enough ahead of this wave. Sad times when we have to be mega-teased like this from supposed advanced super-computers 

...They are so conservative!

[Tom]

00z NAM with a decent cutter...trends looking better so far up this way and the lower lakes...

[Clinton]

Gotta like what the NAM has it will be good for many if it continues this trend.

[Mi_Matthew]

Anybody remember when DTX used to locally run an extended version of the ETA model? I forget how many hours it went out, but I'd sure like to see what happens next on the NAM!

[gabel23]

Good luck to all with this up and coming snow event! Cheers to a mix of the EURO being the correct track and GFS with the robust amounts! Spread the wealth and jump start a busy winter hopefully to many of us on board! 

[Niko]

Gotta like what the NAM has it will be good for many if it continues this trend.

Look at that hvy snow hitting all of SEMI...beautiful!

[Hawkeye]

00z ICON still struggling to find a storm.

[The Snowman]

Anybody remember when DTX used to locally run an extended version of the ETA model? I forget how many hours it went out, but I'd sure like to see what happens next on the NAM!

Imagine this was the DGEX which has since been discontinued, probably for its own good since it was generally dismal at any time interval

[Tom]

RPM model looks very similar to the GFS and with similar amounts. I usually like to see the RPM model at this range. It generally does a good job this far out.

[Mi_Matthew]

Imagine this was the DGEX which has since been discontinued, probably for its own good since it was generally dismal at any time interval

Sounds right. Yeah, it wasn't very good but I enjoyed getting that little bonus peek.

[Hawkeye]

The 500 mb energy does not look impressive on the 00z GFS... kinda broad and flat like some other models... certainly nothing like last night's focused and sharp 00z run.

[Hawkeye]

And.... the GFS caves... weaker and south, nothing for Iowa.

[jaster220]

GRR on board?? Unusual for this office this far out...

 

"Significant snow event possible (looking more likely) Monday

afternoon into Tuesday. Colder with lake effect into Wednesday

 

The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the

ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer

to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR

from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping

south into and southern stream system, this could be power house

storm. We will have to watch this closely."

 

GRR went from all in to out in 12 hours. What a clown office

 

Somehow I missed your first post and their AFD. By the time I saw the AFD they had "dropped" the part about it looking "More likely", the rest was there tho which I also posted. But, I did catch the pm update and as you say, it was a complete 180 deg flip! I believe they allow whomever writes those to put whatever that individual wants in there. Does not look like they sit around a table and come to a group consensus, so yeah, you see these horrible swings in their outlooks! Knowing how they work in GR, I was actually more surprised & disappointed to see DTX backing away from the system so quickly. 

 

Now, back to GRR and their failure wrt headlines for every event so far in this young winter. At least down my way (i.e. 94 corridor). The WWA for 10/31 busted horrible. Vet's Day needed to be a Warning for 6-8+, not a WWA. Dec 1st was a complete and total disaster with yby and many areas having zero headline with 3-5" while several WWA counties got warning level event (some bigly). Latest was Tuesday's LES event where areas from here to the lakeshore had 2-5" with again zero headlines!

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI

1024 PM EST TUE DEC 10 2019

 

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

 

1023 PM SNOW PAW PAW 42.22N 85.89W

12/10/2019 M5.0 INCH VAN BUREN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

 

STORM TOTAL.

[Clinton]

12z GFS

[jaster220]

RPM model looks very similar to the GFS and with similar amounts. I usually like to see the RPM model at this range. It generally does a good job this far out.

 

Never been a huge fan of the RPM tbh. Seems stingy further east. Maybe they just don't run it out far enough for mby?? 

 

Hey, the NAM looks sweet eh? I trust it at that range even more than some globals (GEM, ICON). I think you called this buddy, super fun winter of tracking systems is upon us! 

[bud2380]

LOL GFS. Time to throw that model away.

[Stormhunter87]

Hmmm this is a very odd storm. Fingers crossed for Nam.

[Bellona]

I was never excited about this storm. Hoping something big comes around Christmas time.

[jaster220]

12z GFS

 

Well, that's a dud up this way. We're seeing this same thing we've seen in past years where it seems the energy goes in and out of sampling and we get some runs where it looks lame, then some where it gets better. Just have to see what the next 2 days hold. Get this Gulf Low out of the way first of all..

[Clinton]

Well, that's a dud up this way. We're seeing this same thing we've seen in past years where it seems the energy goes in and out of sampling and we get some runs where it looks lame, then some where it gets better. Just have to see what the next 2 days hold. Get this Gulf Low out of the way first of all..

The NAM tonight had a great run so there is still hope for ya.  It should cut more than what the GFS showed tonight.