Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 CMC provides a direct hit to me but not many others, hoping for more of a share the wealth storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? Right now every model except the ICON gives us a good hit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky.Exactly. I expect models to come within some type of agreement w one another when the energy is finally onshore. I think Friday is the day where we see major changes, if not w the Thursday 4pm package. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 The energy for this storm is still west of the Allusion Islands so not surprised with models still being wonky. My office: Finally, pattern setting up for early next week bears watching aschunk of energy dives south out of Northern Canada as a strongPacific jets pushes into North America. A number of GFS/Euroensemble members spin an area of low pressure up over the easternpart of the U.S. by Tuesday, and some solutions spread rain andsnow into the Great Lakes. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 CMC provides a direct hit to me but not many others, hoping for more of a share the wealth storm.Im telling ya bud, you are in the hot spot track of this storm. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Right now every model except the ICON gives us a good hit.Right, I would say nothing is off the table until Saturday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Not looking good in eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Check-out that GB and that SER. I like what I see here for a major storm to brew! Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 KC area definitely looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Any opinions as to North Texas for Christmas? I have to travel north on the road that day. Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Any opinions as to North Texas for Christmas? I have to travel north on the road that day.You may have some rain lurking around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 1st Wave from the 12Z Euro on Sunday looks to be a minor event for my area and points west in Nebraska and Kansas, a general 1-3" and maybe a little heavier the further west in Nebraska. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z Euro coming in weaker and even further south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12z Euro coming in weaker and even further south. The 12Z Euro won't make very many people happy on here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 The flow out ahead of this energy is too flat. We need more ridging to bump up so this can cut and strengthen. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Wow euro is suckfest for most Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Rooting for you guys on this one, but it’s a little concerning when it’s GFS vs the world. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Can a storm be a bust 6 days out? Technically, no. But when it shows up consistent on the models for 4-5 runs it sure feels like it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 no storm for most per Euro and it's trending to no storm at all Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 It’s hard to believe there will be no storm when there are many GEFS members showing a storm. Let’s see if the EPS trends better before jumping the gun and making judgements. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 12Z EPS mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Come on Tom, get this snow and cold train rolling! Clinton, you need to help! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 We need to break the ice in the middle part of the country, we need some sort of storm in KC this weekend. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Come on Tom, get this snow and cold train rolling! Clinton, you need to help!The ups and downs of wx tracking...still got plenty of time. To see the EPS weaken the snow signal is somewhat of a concern but it could easily come back tonight. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 of 51 ensembles show a decent hit for Iowa! Still in the game! 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 The ups and downs of wx tracking...still got plenty of time. To see the EPS weaken the snow signal is somewhat of a concern but it could easily come back tonight.You are correct Tom. Slow and steady is usually the best idea, but I know personally that can be difficult for me when you see a really good run and then a really bad run for our own particular area. Hopefully by Friday we have a little better information about the storms over the weekend into early next week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 2 of 51 ensembles show a decent hit for Iowa! Still in the game! So you're saying there's a chance. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Come on Tom, get this snow and cold train rolling!Clinton, you need to help!I'm trying, This storm has been predicted for quite some time, so here is what we knowUsing the LRC we know there will be a storm Sunday and Monday.Last cycle it produced 1.5-2in in our area (which was a record for that date)It was + tilted but strengthened as it moved E/NE It was followed by a brief shot of some artic airI think all is gonna be fine but we will know by tomorrow night Also forgot to add that my total precip for this system back in Oct was 1.3 inches 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 We need to break the ice in the middle part of the country, we need some sort of storm in KC this weekend. I know crazy how the GFS nails you guys with 16 And the euro gives you no love whatsoever 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 TBH- Climo suggests the Euro is correct. 16" of snow in KC (or even 1/2 of that) in mid DEC is quite rare. Late Jan or early FEB its still quite rare. Even 16" of snow in DSM or MSP from one storm is about 1% of storms in DEC. I post some dreadful maps at times just for others to "see' the other side and that most times (esp the last few DEC's) they do win out. Right now- and as I said earlier- I think this is way S and a non event for many and even a non event way S where even 1-2" is a big deal. I think OK wins out with 1-3" on this event (for our poster there) and then it's a yawner until late DEC. Just my thoughts. 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Clinton, Lezak says that the pattern cycling tells us this will be a weak storm. He mentions it in his blog videos the last few days. He’s not even close to a 48 day cycle..he claims. So, you guys currently are reading the pattern differently. In those same videos, he shows the higher snowfall models and says it’s possible. So, in other words, he has no forecast out for this weekend. But he says the LRC is the best forecasting tool yet we have no forecast for this weekend. Once the storm or no storm passes, he will claim the LRC knew this all along. I will then say, why didn’t you forecast this last Monday and end all the model speculation? 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Clinton, Lezak says that the pattern cycling tells us this will be a weak storm. He mentions it in his blog videos the last few days. He’s not even close to a 48 day cycle..he claims. So, you guys currently are reading the pattern differently. In those same videos, he shows the higher snowfall models and says it’s possible. So, in other words, he has no forecast out for this weekend. But he says the LRC is the best forecasting tool yet we have no forecast for this weekend. Once the storm or no storm passes, he will claim the LRC knew this all along. I will then say, why didn’t you forecast this last Monday and end all the model speculation?I respect him and have learned a lot from listening to him and reading his blogs. I'm not sure what he has going on right now, I love tracking storms and leaning about meteorology and a lot of what I have learned has came from listening to him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Clinton, Lezak says that the pattern cycling tells us this will be a weak storm. He mentions it in his blog videos the last few days. He’s not even close to a 48 day cycle..he claims. So, you guys currently are reading the pattern differently. In those same videos, he shows the higher snowfall models and says it’s possible. So, in other words, he has no forecast out for this weekend. But he says the LRC is the best forecasting tool yet we have no forecast for this weekend. Once the storm or no storm passes, he will claim the LRC knew this all along. I will then say, why didn’t you forecast this last Monday and end all the model speculation?My personal claim is for a 61-64 day cycle, but who knows? I actually probably will be edged out of the snow til late month into January. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 i hope Iam wrong but with current teleconnections I don't see this being a storm (more than 2") for more than 20% of sub. I do my stuff- don;t post like TOM, but this is not looking good and it looks to be balmy until at least Christmas. The blocking is coming but the Zonal flow overwhelms it until late DEC. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 i hope Iam wrong but with current teleconnections I don't see this being a storm (more than 2") for more than 20% of sub. I do my stuff- don;t post like TOM, but this is not looking good and it looks to be balmy until at least Christmas. The blocking is coming but the Zonal flow overwhelms it until late DEC. I agree. Going to be a lot of green/brown Christmases. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 NWS Hastings afternoon disco: By Friday evening, a slightly stronger clipper-style wave will moveinto the area. This will bring a punch of colder air and possiblysome light rain quickly changing to snow. Models, particularly theNAM, show a signal for banded snowfall with localized amounts overone inch possible. That said, forecasting the exact location of theband is nearly impossible at this point. Therefore, the latestforecast has introduced a fairly broad swath of less than 1 inch ofsnowfall. Overall, impacts shouldn`t be significant, but somelocalized areas could see slick and snow covered roads Friday nightinto Saturday morning.Behind this system, we will see much colder weather return forthe weekend. Saturday`s highs will only be in the 20s to mid 30s.On Sunday, a deeper and slower-moving trough will traverse theregion, likely bringing measurable snow to portions of the areaSunday into Sunday night. The location of this snow remainsuncertain, though. Ensemble guidance favors portions of Kansas forthe heaviest snow, but some deterministic model runs continue toshow snow accumulation as far north as the Nebraska sandhills.Hopefully model agreement improves over the next day or two. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MIKEKC Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Foot of snow on the latest GFS for KC. It’s all by itself on this solution! I would like to believe it, but it has modeled 5 snow storms in the last 5 weeks for KC at some point in the long range and we are sitting at a total of........ 0.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 GFS still has a lead wave ahead of the main system 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Looks like the GFS is off in La La Land I’m not holding my breath Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 11, 2019 Report Share Posted December 11, 2019 Oh GFS, you'll just break our hearts. 18z back north a bit. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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