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April 2014 in the PNW


stuffradio

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Gonna be rather hot tomorrow for my tastes.  Might as well live in Death Valley..

 

 

Yep... a couple days of 80 degrees and now murky, gray Seattle is the same as Death Valley.     Seems perfectly reasonable.  

 

Move to Death Valley since its basically the same climate now... real estate prices there are really cheap.   :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yep... a couple days of 80 degrees and now murky, gray Seattle is the same as Death Valley.     Seems perfectly reasonable.  

 

Move to Death Valley since its basically the same climate now... real estate prices there are really cheap.   :)

You just DONT EVER STOP do you?

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You just DONT EVER STOP do you?

 

 

Wettest Feb-Apr ever... rained for basically 3 months and when it gets up to 80 degrees for 2 days it might as well be Death Valley?    :lol:     

 

Can't poke fun at that?    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wettest Feb-Apr ever... rained for basically 3 months and when it gets up to 80 degrees for 2 days it might as well be Death Valley?    :lol:     

 

Can't poke fun at that?

 

I believe in lite of the warm weather I'm fairly sure he was being metaphorical

 

Stop douching on everyone's parade.

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I believe in lite of the warm weather I'm fairly sure he was being metaphorical

 

Stop douching on everyone's parade.

 

 

Of course it was tongue-in-cheek... so was my response.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I know I've taken a lot of flack for OT posts, but I hope this is ok to post here.

 

Current Great Lakes ice coverage is literally nuking records. Pretty amazing to see. Some locations are seeing the coldest Jan-Apr period on record, going back to the 1800s.

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/20140428180000_cvchdctgl_0007639787.gif

 

Not hard to understand why. Raw temps from all Midwestern stations within the USHCN network (unadjusted), graphed by Steven Goddard:

 

http://stevengoddard.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/screenshot-at-apr-29-16-00-01.png

That is unbelievable. How can one sector of the country have such a tendency for cold for such a long period of time? I mean, coldest, largest ice coverage for the G.L. region in recorded history by a good margin. How possible is it that a period like that occurs over the West in the near future??? We just get extremely wet, or extremely warm, or extremely dry periods. The only thing we seem to escape is cold! Damnit. 

 

Muggy and 87*F here. 

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-

Its official... the Canadian model is now superior to the GFS.   
 
The ECMWF reigns supreme of course.
 
http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2014/04/the-us-slips-to-fourth-place-in-global.html


I follow Cliff Mass's blog regularly, so had seen this.
 
I wonder who's next .. (Or "what" is.) in line, behind us. ..
 
My own thought regarding this idea, even adventwith having followed this theme looked at more in particularly by Prof. Mass within his blog for some time now / .. if not more in line with the idea that more money should be put into strengthening the main computing capability of our present modelsor in effect more, a more dynamic fine-tuning of what's already being looked at main parameterizations wise, ... certainly a decent enough idea (.. And just to be clear here, my not being a Republican ... looking to "save" money with what I've pointed to here.)is that, ...
 
.. I wish I could find some better way to conveyor channel perhaps, toward the idea of communicatingwhat I've learned more personally, with time where having studied greater colder air mass movement, to someone at .. or even examining more closely the different main inputs at .. the main parameterization level. -(.. As grandiose as this may sound, I should perhaps add here.)
 
Were anyone following what I've posted here since and with my having begun to this past winter, projections wise dealing with greater (broader main.) colder air mass movement and distribution more critically, they would find I'm sure, that in many instances I've surpassed "the models".
 
.. This, I would estimate for the most part, generally, basically to an extent more or less in line with the level of "money" having been put into improving the "computing power" of whichever of them. 
 
In the past, and with being true to the statement that I affix to the bottom of most of my (granted certainly, fairly basic) projections posted regularly, i.e. only later, more subsequent to whatever main timeframe's having passed, .. with having checked what I've projected myself, and with having mainly considered a more general propensity where looking at main colder air's main direction of movement together with more general distribution both more latitudinal and longitudinal, I've found that I've quite often surpassed the "GFS" model certainly. 

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/model2.shtml#verification
 
Essentially, it quite often misses the main turning points, or transitions, that I work to point to as main focuses of what I project where looking at future movement of colder air mass whether more latitudinal or longitudinal. Of course translating to what shows up more pressure-related.

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The GFS shows highs in the upper 40s at face value. Curious if we have ever had a year with a very cold May?

 

 

Nahh... GFS MOS and the WRF shows low to mid 60s for the next week starting on Saturday with showers almost every day.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I was looking at the reliable Meteostar output for 300+ hours plus. I am well aware that you would hate to see such a thing, but you would have to admit that if you loved anomalous weather, than 40's in May would be something to see.

 

(I know that this has the same odds as for verifying as a 384h blizzard, but let me dream.)

 

 

Honestly sounds like a complete nightmare for 99% of the population.   :)

 

Nobody on here likes summer in the winter... we certainly don't need winter in the warm season.    May - September is what most people live for around here.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still 80 here.

 

Mom in Westport says its still upper 70's there.  Impressive little warm/hot(for the time of year) streak all the way to coast.

 

Most summer heatwaves don't even last more than a day or two out there and they should have 3 in a row.

 

It's the very fact that this heatwave isn't a standard summertime setup that is giving this warm spell such longevity at the coast. Much more of an autumn like pattern with the sustained offshore flow and cool high pressure diving into the middle of the country.

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Warmest on record for April at Astoria.  Same for Hoquiam and Quillayute.  

 

 

What years were beaten out?    Does this set-up remind you have any similar situation in late April and early May?

 

I know it was this hot last year about 5 days later.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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What years were beaten out?    Does this set-up remind you have any similar situation in late April and early May?

 

I know it was this hot last year about 5 days later.

 

Horrible ones!  Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

 

This is just a transitory, dynamic pattern.  Taking anything from it at this point for the long term is dumb.  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Still 74 degrees here with a decent downslope still in progress.  Very unusual for this location.  Last time I remember one persisting like this during a warm event was May 2008, although we weren't quite living this far off the beaten path then.  

 

Sign of things to come?  Or possibly a sign of different things to come?  

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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Horrible ones! Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

 

This is just a transitory, dynamic pattern. Taking anything from it at this point for the long term is dumb.

More offshore flow than normal this April? At least out there.

 

That and mild nights overall probably clinched it. For a minute there I thought PDX had a shot at making it into the Top 5 Warmest.

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Too bad the WRF shows the weekend being a total washout...at least for the Seattle area.  The timing couldn't have been much worse.

 

The warmth today was certainly freakish for this time of year!

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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Beautiful day up here although the sea breeze kept the temperature just below 70F. It looks like tomorrow will be warmer with temperature closer to the mid 70s.

Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008):

Max Temp: 96.3F (2009)   Min Temp: 2.0F (2008)   Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021)   Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22)   Avg Yearly Precip: 37"   10yr Avg Snow: 8.0"

Snowfall Totals

'08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 

2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16)

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Beautiful day up here although the sea breeze kept the temperature just below 70F. It looks like tomorrow will be warmer with temperature closer to the mid 70s.

 

Amazing how much marine influence you have there.  I had low 80s with a dp below freezing today.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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