April 2014 in the PNW

[Timmy Supercell]

Btw I wish it were easier to upload photos on here. There shouldn't be such a strict limit on file size. I had a sunrise picture to accompany my above post but it won't let me attach it.

 

I use Tinypic, has up to 5MB upload limit. Just be sure to use the brackets on both ends of the links.

 

Oh, Facebook downsizes and grains the hell out of my photos. I try to refrain from uploading on FB if I wanted to share something.

[Jesse]

Looks like the operational Euro finally caved to the GFS and ensembles. Definitely looking like no 80+ weather in the cards for Portland next week.

[Andie]

Btw I wish it were easier to upload photos on here. There shouldn't be such a strict limit on file size. I had a sunrise picture to accompany my above post but it won't let me attach it.

Completely agree.

[richard mann]

Btw I wish it were easier to upload photos on here. There shouldn't be such a strict limit on file size. I had a sunrise picture to accompany my above post but it won't let me attach it.

 

Check this. - http://theweatherforums.com/index.php?/topic/221-image-uploading-code-tricks-elements-ect/

 

.. That I just generated over in the "Everything Else" ("off Topic".) sub-forum

[Tyler Mode]

March 2014 in Battle Ground (Minnehaha)

 

Highest High: 71.2, 24th (71.1, 24th)
Lowest Low: 27.6, 22nd (28.5, 22nd)
Highest Wind: ESE 35, 25th (SW 32, 6th)
Most Precip: 1.23, 5th (1.26", 5th)

Total Precip: 7.57" (6.86")

Avg High: 57.2 (58)
Avg Low: 37.9 (39)
Mean: 47.5 (48.5)

[Jesse]

Wow, what an about face from the EURO for later next week.

 

It went from advertising near-record warmth Wed/Thu to a chilly clipper-esque system and a fairly cold pattern overall.

[Jesse]

The operational Euro is showing its usual bias of holding too much energy offshore. We aren't going to see 4-5 days of 850mb temps over +12c. Expect a solution closer to the GFS. A couple days well into the 70s then a quick breakdown.

 

 

Well... now you jinxed it for yourself and made most other people on here happy since this means it will in fact happen.    

 

[TheBigOne]

We had a major cold wave in December too. Last winter was pretty decent for most places in the NW (including your location). It's all relative.

 

As for the bolded part, not sure where to even start with that one. That's a nonsensical claim.

Sorry.  I am still wishing for a Jan 1950 style winter!    This year came close a few times however it was Eugene that got below 0F but March was exciting with it's constant downpours!.

 

We did get down in the upper single digits this winter but it wasn't as exciting with just only a thin thing of snow.  Sort of reminded me of the 1998 Artic Blast that also got down to 10F in Silverton area.

  Feb around here was the bomb but even then I think Eugene once again got the most accumulations or did Salem cash in the most? 

 

What was the official totals of the two places?

[TheBigOne]

Sounds like the Cascades are calling your name

I'm always dreaming.  We are looking for a small property  of land in the Bend/Prineville area for Dad to retire too so we can be in a slightly drier climate and closer to the mountains for the snow!    I can't wait!         Say goodbye to Salem!

 

There is even property near you're area called Bozeman or something like that but Dad is worried about too much snow and I tried to talk him into it but the other factor is there is no pharmacy work.   He works at a small mom and pop place and wants to do relief work and still clock in a few days a week for an income.   

 

The only offerings in you're area are for chain stores that will make him work 24/7 just about and he would never be seen again.  Been there don't that and it' s not a pleasant ride especially with being in his 60s.    He did that kind of work when he was middle aged and it wore him out then when he had tons of energy!  Being at a mom and pop pharmacy compared to a chain store he is able to come home at a decent time and the store is not open on the weekends.  

 

 

 

We went for the day two weekends ago to preview some property we found on the internet that met our criteria and liked some of what we saw.   The moment we got out of the valley floor and into the foothills me and my parents had our sinuses literally drained and our heads felt much better!  It was an interesting experience.       Next week we will spend several days in the Bend area as we have an interesting list from a realtor who has been very willing to help us and went thru the hoops so we didn't have to.  It will be interesting especially with the beginning of the week looking to be warm so I hope we clear our colds out of our system.

[chinook]

I'm always dreaming.  We are looking for a small property  of land in the Bend/Prineville area for Dad to retire too so we can be in a slightly drier climate and closer to the mountains for the snow!    I can't wait!         Say goodbye to Salem!

 

There is even property near you're area called Bozeman or something like that but Dad is worried about too much snow and I tried to talk him into it but the other factor is there is no pharmacy work.   He works at a small mom and pop place and wants to do relief work and still clock in a few days a week for an income.   

 

The only offerings in you're area are for chain stores that will make him work 24/7 just about and he would never be seen again.  Been there don't that and it' s not a pleasant ride especially with being in his 60s.    He did that kind of work when he was middle aged and it wore him out then when he had tons of energy!  Being at a mom and pop pharmacy compared to a chain store he is able to come home at a decent time and the store is not open on the weekends.  

 

 

 

We went for the day two weekends ago to preview some property we found on the internet that met our criteria and liked some of what we saw.   The moment we got out of the valley floor and into the foothills me and my parents had our sinuses literally drained and our heads felt much better!  It was an interesting experience.       Next week we will spend several days in the Bend area as we have an interesting list from a realtor who has been very willing to help us and went thru the hoops so we didn't have to.  It will be interesting especially with the beginning of the week looking to be warm so I hope we clear our colds out of our system.

I'm assuming homes of interest will feature a basement...?

 

Climate of central Oregon gives you the extremes and more often.

[snow_wizard]

Wow, what an about face from the EURO for later next week.

 

It went from advertising near-record warmth Wed/Thu to a chilly clipper-esque system and a fairly cold pattern overall.

 

 

I really like the 12z Euro.  Pretty much my favorite pattern this time of year.   It's also nice to see the endless cold in the NE finally coming to an end.

[snow_wizard]

We're really overdue for a significant April heat event (85+ in Portland, 80+ in Seattle). They used to happen more. I'm hoping this will be the year.

 

 

I still remember the one in 1984.  It hit the 80s in mid April and then snowed a little bit later in the month.

[Phil]

Major SSW attm with a favorable EPF and full scale propagation likely, could be the FW event.

 

Should see more "blocking" develop in May/June..which is exactly when we DON'T want it.

[Jesse]

Wow! The 00z is a cold run. We'd be seeing some 1950s type cold April mornings if it verified.

[snow_wizard]

Wow! The 00z is a cold run. We'd be seeing some 1950s type cold April mornings if it verified.

 

I hope it ends up having a continental flavor.

[weatherfan2012]

Major SSW attm with a favorable EPF and full scale propagation likely, could be the FW event.

Should see more "blocking" develop in May/June..which is exactly when we DON'T want it.

yeah that would spell quite a crappy spring early summer pattern not to good for any real warm weather.

[Black Hole]

Where do you see this blocking forming Phil? I bet its right over the western states. Although I don't know if it hugs the PNW coast or is a bit inland. Technically I don't know anything but that's what I think

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I could totally see May/June be warmer/drier in the PNW then they have been for the past few years. Then July/August being cooler, I don't know about wetter, kind of hard to get a "wet" July around here. Though last September showed that anomalies do happen.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like nearly half an inch of rain fell this morning in that band of rain that moved through...

[stuffradio]

I could totally see May/June be warmer/drier in the PNW then they have been for the past few years. Then July/August being cooler, I don't know about wetter, kind of hard to get a "wet" July around here. Though last September showed that anomalies do happen.

We have a fair in Vancouver in August called the PNE. On a number of days, it poured during the PNE and caused the power to go out a few times. It was funny for me, sad for the attendees, and a nightmare for the operators!

[Phil]

Where do you see this blocking forming Phil? I bet its right over the western states. Although I don't know if it hugs the PNW coast or is a bit inland. Technically I don't know anything but that's what I think

Haha. Probably over the NAO domain, or possibly the EPO domain...there's something to be said about persistence so I'm tempted to go with the latter, like you.

 

The tropical forcings will dictate the location of the blocking. Right now we have a CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave) over the IO, which will propagate east, setting off a major MJO wave and perhaps forcing another round of WWBs. This MJO wave will also be enhanced by cooling near the tropopause as a result of the PV breakdown.

 

So whatever happens will probably be very unstable in nature, as we're quickly leaving the winter circulation regime behind.

[Phil]

Haha. Probably over the NAO domain, or possibly the EPO domain...there's something to be said about persistence so I'm tempted to go with the latter, like you.

 

The tropical forcings will dictate the location of the blocking. Right now we have a CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave) over the IO, which will propagate east, setting off a major MJO wave and perhaps forcing another round of WWBs. This MJO wave will also be enhanced by cooling near the tropopause as a result of the PV breakdown.

 

So whatever happens will probably be very unstable in nature, as we're quickly leaving the winter circulation regime behind.

Either way I'm not happy about it, mainly because it'll probably lead to a terrible +DA circulation regime in the Arctic for 4-8 weeks, giving certain folks something to panic over. And we all know how crazy the media goes with this nonsense.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I see the Mariners game in Oakland was rained out last night. Apparently the A's are blaming a lot of it on a bad forecast they got which led them to leave the tarp off the field before they got about a third of an inch of rain. That is what they get for hiring Kevin Martin. JK

[Jesse]

Just when things were starting to look interesting around here. 12z Euro goes back to ridge city for us while the Midwest/East get slammed with another unseasonably cool airmass.

[snow_wizard]

Haha. Probably over the NAO domain, or possibly the EPO domain...there's something to be said about persistence so I'm tempted to go with the latter, like you.

 

The tropical forcings will dictate the location of the blocking. Right now we have a CCKW (convectively coupled Kelvin wave) over the IO, which will propagate east, setting off a major MJO wave and perhaps forcing another round of WWBs. This MJO wave will also be enhanced by cooling near the tropopause as a result of the PV breakdown.

 

So whatever happens will probably be very unstable in nature, as we're quickly leaving the winter circulation regime behind.

 

 

If there isn't another round of WWBs I would think any El Nino would be short lived as colder than normal subsurface water is right on the heels of the Kelvin wave that is currently surfacing.  It would be strange to have the Nino peak before early summer, but I would think another WWB will probably happen.

[snow_wizard]

Just when things were starting to look interesting around here. 12z Euro goes back to ridge city for us while the Midwest/East get slammed with another unseasonably cool airmass.

 

 

Obviously it's pretty uncertain right now.  You would think the wavelength would have to change to favor an overall regime change at some point.  I suppose it's possible the upper Midwest will be in a situation like we were in 1955 though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just when things were starting to look interesting around here. 12z Euro goes back to ridge city for us while the Midwest/East get slammed with another unseasonably cool airmass.

 

That theme should continue well into May.

[snow_wizard]

That theme should continue well into May.

 

Evidence?

[TT-SEA]

Obviously it's pretty uncertain right now.  You would think the wavelength would have to change to favor an overall regime change at some point.  I suppose it's possible the upper Midwest will be in a situation like we were in 1955 though.

 

 

Pure misery there.    I am telling you... people are at their wits end after two horrible winters and now springs in a row.

 

One of the stations there had a story about coping with the horrific weather and the importance of talking to other people rather leaving it bottled up.      

[chinook]

Just when things were starting to look interesting around here. 12z Euro goes back to ridge city for us while the Midwest/East get slammed with another unseasonably cool airmass.

I would be satisfied with a dry, warm April/May time frame...followed by a wet early June. then crank up the warmth for the rest of Summer.

[snow_wizard]

Pure misery there.    I am telling you... people are at their wits end after two horrible winters and now springs in a row.

 

One of the stations there had a story about coping with the horrific weather and the importance of talking to other people rather leaving it bottled up.      

 

Wow.  That does sound bad.  I remember people having similar issues here a few years back when we didn't see the sun for about 8 straight weeks, and then almost endless gloom after that.

 

I wonder when our turn will come to finally get stuck in one of those endless cold regimes.  We are quite due.  We came close in late 2008 and early 2009, but not quite.

[chinook]

Wow.  That does sound bad.  I remember people having similar issues here a few years back when we didn't see the sun for about 8 straight weeks, and then almost endless gloom after that.

 

I wonder when our turn will come to finally get stuck in one of those endless cold regimes.  We are quite due.  We came close in late 2008 and early 2009, but not quite.

Yeah but the enjoyable months of late spring, summer and fall only bring in gunk, low clouds with coolness. No thanks.

[snow_wizard]

Yeah but the enjoyable months of late spring, summer and fall only bring in gunk, low clouds with coolness. No thanks.

 

Not true at all.  August 1955 was one of the driest and sunniest Augusts on record despite being way cooler than normal thanks to chilly nights.  1985 was a cold year overall and had lots of very nice weather.  We get a lot of cold clippers in the kind of regime I'm talking about which bring more of a continental flavor.

 

Another fabulous example of that is 1949.  Tons of abnormally cold nights in the spring and early summer.  Some places had frost in early July.  Later in the year we had a slightly drier than normal October with an Arctic outbreak.  Not at all what you are talking about.

[Jesse]

Yeah but the enjoyable months of late spring, summer and fall only bring in gunk, low clouds with coolness. No thanks.

 

Cool, dry weather is actually possible during all of those times of year. We just haven't seen much of it lately.

[Jesse]

Evidence?

 

CFS

[snow_wizard]

Cool, dry weather is actually possible during all of those times of year. We just haven't seen much of it lately.

 

Bingo!

[Jesse]

Not true at all.  August 1955 was one of the driest and sunniest Augusts on record despite being way cooler than normal thanks to chilly nights.  1985 was a cold year overall and had lots of very nice weather.  We get a lot of cold clippers in the kind of regime I'm talking about which bring more of a continental flavor.

 

Another fabulous example of that is 1949.  Tons of abnormally cold nights in the spring and early summer.  Some places had frost in early July.  Later in the year we had a slightly drier than normal October with an Arctic outbreak.  Not at all what you are talking about.

 

This.

 

A regime of that nature was looking likely in the mid-long range. Now not as certain. 12Z EURO sure was a downer. GFS and ensembles still show hope, though. They lead the way with the quick breakdown of the ridge early next week.

[Jesse]

Bingo!

 

A lot of people on here don't understand that that's what I am wanting to see in the warm season. I am 100% ok with the low clouds and drizzle taking an extended vacation. Today is just putrid, for example. 

[Phil]

Wow. That does sound bad. I remember people having similar issues here a few years back when we didn't see the sun for about 8 straight weeks, and then almost endless gloom after that.

 

I wonder when our turn will come to finally get stuck in one of those endless cold regimes. We are quite due. We came close in late 2008 and early 2009, but not quite.

It's been nasty here too, but at least it looks like the worst is behind us.

 

The ground is still frozen solid, snow everywhere, and no sign of bird/plant life. We're way past the equinox now too.

 

Goes to show how massive our system's thermal inertia truly is. We're approaching a late-August Sun angle.

[Phil]

If there isn't another round of WWBs I would think any El Nino would be short lived as colder than normal subsurface water is right on the heels of the Kelvin wave that is currently surfacing. It would be strange to have the Nino peak before early summer, but I would think another WWB will probably happen.

There's no doubt 2014-15 will be an El Niño winter. Problem is people love to hype and ignore the facts (AKA what governs ENSO). Hence all the super Niño predictions.