clintbeed1993 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 December has been a major DUD to all our chagrin. Can we close it with a bang? Unfortunately temps remain marginal with very little cold air available for this storm to work with. For a lot of you it's looking like a rain event. However, some further west could see heavy snow as has been consistently depicted on the GFS for several days. EURO took a step towards it tonight after having a much weaker solution for days. Will we see this bad boy phase into a powerhouse? Will the GFS finally score a coup and regain lost confidence? High drama is what it's all about in storm tracking and we have it in spades here! Should be a fun one to track the next few days. At least there's something to track during this blowtorch of failure Christmas period. Discuss 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 We need rain, bring it on!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Even though the GFS has its flaws, it has done a good job in the Day 5+ range of sniffing out a storm. Just like the last system that hit the Plains/S MW/OHV region, the GFS/GEFS were the first to jump on the storm system. Obliviously, track and intensity did not play out exactly but the model got the general idea of a storm threat. IMO, it is doing the same thing and has sniffed out this storm potential and to see the Euro/EPS trending that way we have to give the American model some credit. Inside Day 5, the King is money so eventually I'd put more stock into that model and the higher rez. With that being said, looks like some of our members out west and up into MN/WI are in-line to cash in... 00z GEFS... 06z GEFS... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Even though the GFS has its flaws, it has done a good job in the Day 5+ range of sniffing out a storm. Just like the last system that hit the Plains/S MW/OHV region, the GFS/GEFS were the first to jump on the storm system. Obliviously, track and intensity did not play out exactly but the model got the general idea of a storm threat. IMO, it is doing the same thing and has sniffed out this storm potential and to see the Euro/EPS trending that way we have to give the American model some credit. Inside Day 5, the King is money so eventually I'd put more stock into that model and the higher rez. With that being said, looks like some of our members out west and up into MN/WI are in-line to cash in... 00z GEFS... 06z GEFS... LRC is a great tool when the models are crazy like they have been lately. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 00z EPS mean I expect a big shift SE the next couple of days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 LRC is a great tool when the models are crazy like they have been lately.No doubt about it...I'm hoping the GFS is right and provides a chance for some back-wash snows around here. I won't get to excited about though just yet. Hopefully we start seeing some consistency in today's runs but it's nice to see the Euro correct its bias by kicking out the energy quicker. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 No doubt about it...I'm hoping the GFS is right and provides a chance for some back-wash snows around here. I won't get to excited about though just yet. Hopefully we start seeing some consistency in today's runs but it's nice to see the Euro correct its bias by kicking out the energy quicker.The AO is taking a quick dive down the next few days maybe that will promote more cold air to work into this storm. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 6z EC has the storm ongoing at hr 144 and really beefed up amounts. More changes to come I'm sujre. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Definitely agree Tom. Gfs can be a hot mess but it has been good finding the energy. I have laugh, we are down at my parents and my dad was looking at the gfs. "What snow in northern Florida that ain't right." 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 If the GFS's further SE version works out, I'll have to find a way to intercept some of the white gold in NMI during my holiday stay-cation. Newly amped Euro misses the Mitt completely. Even the UP magnet fails on those Control maps. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 6z EC has the storm ongoing at hr 144 and really beefed up amounts. More changes to come I'm sujre. Actually, the SLP placement/strength isn't that different from last night's GFS but the wrap-around depicted by the ICON/GFS/NAM is MIA on the Euro. Intercepting THIS would make my season brighter 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Icon step towards GFS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 12z ICON has sure come north compared to the 0z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 12z ICON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Icon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I may have to issue the GFS a formal apology. Although we have seen it flop many times already this season. Regardless, it's going to be a depressing storm in eastern Iowa as we are looking at some very heavy rain, while areas to our NW get hit again. GFS painting widespread 1-2" of rain across a good chunk of Iowa. Wow. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Gfs 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 GFS has been much less robust with snowfall amounts on the backside the last few runs, especially in eastern Nebraska. This is one of those times where I'm hoping this is a trend for here so my family can travel safely this weekend. At this point it can rain all it wants to on Saturday/Sunday. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 GfsThe GFS even throws me a bone. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 GFS with much more realistic snow totals than the widespread 12-18" it had been showing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I would gladly take 1-2" of rain. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 i think it's safe to say that there will not be enough cold air to work with this far south to give me any hope of appreciable snow. I appreciate the GFS trying to throw in 2-3" of wrap around snow here, but I can't recall a single wrap around snow event that produced over an inch of snow in my lifetime in Eastern Iowa. That just doesn't happen here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I would gladly take 1-2" of rain. We need rain so bad I hope it pans out! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Getting kinda tired of the hard cutters. No cold air to press it. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 The Canadian just caved, too. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Time for euro to cave to GFS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Time for euro to cave to GFS? It already pretty much did on the 00z run last night. They are pretty similar at this point. Still 4 days out, so plenty of time for everyone to be wrong though. LOL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Canadian also doing the dumb wrap around snow in Iowa post system, with some heavy totals. Sorry, not buying that unless it's within 48 hours and models still show that. I'm not even sure how it's creating this. All the main energy is shunted well off to the NE, unless there is some inverted trough hanging behind. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 The UK just caved hard, too. The rest of the models are suddenly digging the northern stream energy much farther west, just like the GFS, so the northern energy can now dive down into the backside of the southern energy. Wow, congrats, GFS! 5 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I dunno, these rapidly deepening and well phased systems can have some serious wrap around sometimes. I wouldn’t count on it, but I wouldn’t sleep on that possibility either. 3 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I dunno, these rapidly deepening and well phased systems can have some serious wrap around sometimes. I wouldn’t count on it, but I wouldn’t sleep on that possibility either.I'd absolute love to see it, i just can't recall it ever happening in Eastern Iowa. Can you think of one? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'd absolute love to see it, i just can't recall it ever happening in Eastern Iowa. Can you think of one?There was an instance in Wisconsin a few years back where there was a surprise 8-12” dropped from a deformation band on the backside of a system much like this one. I’ve also seen it happen in western Iowa, but with lesser totals. 2 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 This is basically the snow totals from the lead wave of the Canadian. And then the snow totals from the wrap around. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 UK brings temps into the 50s in Iowa on Saturday. No wrap around snows either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Getting kinda tired of the hard cutters. No cold air to press it. Yeah, no kidding! La Nino! When's this going to start acting like the La Nada it's supposed to be? Continuation of last winter's cutter heaven. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Still not a believer yet since the GFS is leading the way. Fun to have something to track over the holiday though. Euro looks like a potential rainer here through hr 96. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Euro coming in way west of other guidance. Coming in through eastern NE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Wow....what is the Euro up to?? Crazy storm. The whole kitchen sink thrown in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I just realized I was posting the euro storm data on the December thread. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Yeah the euro blasts the same areas in the dakotas and Minnesota that have been hit hard earlier this winter again. Absolutely blasts the western half or so of Minnesota. Crazy looking run. Not sure I’d buy that yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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