Jump to content

December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter


clintbeed1993

Recommended Posts

You should at least see some snow bud. I think all the models are painting some accumulations even into SEMI  ;)

:huh: Not too sure about that amigo, but we will see.

  • Like 1

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00z GEFS giving some hope for those around the GL's for more than coating???

 

GEFSGL_prec_snens_114.png

 

Nice to see the GEFS picking up the potential. Not sure I'd go as big as the worst (best) of those show, but there will be SR surprises for sure. 

 

One thing is for certain, this beast will look so pretty on satellite and radar over the next couple days. The 12z 3km NAM showing some intense and convective banding around the GL’s. No doubt there will be some impressive snows where this storm stalls and pivots.

 

That'll be the key to winners and not-so-luckies right there. All about the pivot. Unless you're Stasch, he's just gold with this entire event, as all but the final batch of hours should have favorable winds for his locale.  :)

 

Edit:  I like ens #5 or #12 as fairly realistic fwiw. #19 would be the extreme

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Already just over an inch of rain. Man if it was cold enough...

Yeah I have about 1.40 inches of rain in my rain gauge this morning.... oh what could have been if it wasn’t the Winter of 2019 LOL.

 

Flood Watch has been issued for Eastern Nebraska for an additional 1-2 inches of rain today... gotta love this weather pattern.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing is for certain, this beast will look so pretty on satellite and radar over the next couple days. The 12z 3km NAM showing some intense and convective banding around the GL’s. No doubt there will be some impressive snows where this storm stalls and pivots.

Tom - how’s it looking for N WI for the secondary piece after the rain passes?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Tom - how’s it looking for N WI for the secondary piece after the rain passes?

Trends are all pointing positively up north in your neck of the woods.  I think the high rez NAM has the right idea and this was today's snowfall map...still snowing heavily up north...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing is for certain, this beast will look so pretty on satellite and radar over the next couple days. The 12z 3km NAM showing some intense and convective banding around the GL’s. No doubt there will be some impressive snows where this storm stalls and pivots.

 

True dat! Wish I had a get-away to W UP planned  ;)

 

APX still considering it "Long Term" in their AFD, but hit the issue on the head. Location..location..location..too far away to pin down net winners/losers. As you said, keeps it exciting.

 

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Dec 28 2019

 

High impact weather potential: Accumulating lake effect/enhanced

snow possible Monday night through Wednesday morning.

 

Well-advertised low pressure continues to make its effects felt

across northern Michigan heading through midweek as very little

northward/eastward movement is anticipated through Tuesday.

Continued bouts of lake effect/enhanced snow are expected...flying

most frequently downwind of the Great Lakes, perhaps aided

synoptically at times by additional perturbations pinwheeling

through larger scale troughing still overhead. For the Monday night

through Tuesday time frame, some significant guidance differences

with respect to low pressure positioning and resultant low-mid level

wind direction makes it awfully hard to pinpoint potential snow

amounts and the hardest hit areas (southwest flow/eastern upper vs.

west-northwest flow/northwest lower). Safe to say, however, that a

return to more winter-like conditions is eventually on tap for the

upcoming week.

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trends are all pointing positively up north in your neck of the woods.  I think the high rez NAM has the right idea and this was today's snowfall map...still snowing heavily up north...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

 

I'd take the NAM's SLP location and (colder) portrayal in a NY minute. Looks like Monday night will be NWI's time to shine, eh. More Tues-ish for the Mitt. Might even drag into Tues night for some in WMI. 

 

Those grey streaks from pin-wheeling snow showers are nifty, eh? don't remember those on a map b4 tbh. Also looks like it wants to whiten up yby, no?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hey, who wants to go ice skating??  Up in MN you can literally put on your skates outside your front door and stroll through the neighborhood!  Incredible...I don't think I've seen anything like that before.

 

href="https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1210930695977283591/pu/img/o9PIsLkJEAGsw8yQ.jpg" "="">https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1210930695977283591/pu/img/o9PIsLkJEAGsw8yQ.jpg

 

April of '76, that was my (folk's) neighborhood, minus all the snow OTG. Jelly of all that snow they have still.  :lol:

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Trends are all pointing positively up north in your neck of the woods. I think the high rez NAM has the right idea and this was today's snowfall map...still snowing heavily up north...

 

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

 

ref1km_ptype.us_mw.png

Would love to see that verify. Seems like it could be a bit overdone though, but who knows. Feel like there will be some nice totals somewhere, but not sure how widespread. Will be very welcomed whoever gets it as the trails have been taking a beating and tomorrow they will really deteriorate with all the rain.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good situation to illustrate the different NAMily products at h84:

 

Low-Res NAM32 (no snow over SWMI)

 

20191124 12z nam32 h84 Surf.png

 

Mid-Res NAM12 (snow ongoing in SWMI)

 

20191124 12z nam12 h84 Surf.png

 

 

Question for anyone. Why even have the 32km since it only goes to h84 like the 12km? Would maybe make sense to me if it went out further (or 12km shorter). Just seems like useless overlap imho

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oh man, it is an absolute hazard out there right now. Apparently the metro transit system has been shut down for the first time since '81! Hopefully we can either get some temps warm enough to have plain rain or the roads are going to keep getting worse. Fun storm on radar though!

No kidding! I couldn’t make it to the end of my street with a 4x4 truck. I had to put it in reverse to get back to my driveway because I was unable to turn around without sliding into the curb. St. Paul side streets are still rutted from the earlier snows. Now with the glaze of ice on them they are rutted ice rinks. Any incline will result in your vehicle sliding sideways. It’s really unbelievable. I’ve never seen it this bad. I’m hoping for warm temps and rain at this point.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yikes, not good to see fatalities..Peeps need to be aware. No Ice Storm Warning issued or what??

  • Like 1

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We’re literally stuck. My house sits about 3 feet below street level, 150 ft from the street. I have about 0.2” of ice on the driveway and we cannot get out. Went sledding on the driveway with my boy. Starting to rain again and still freezing on contact. Big snowflakes mixed in. Temp is rising but it’s going to take a bit for surface temps to catch up. Craziest thing I’ve seen in a while.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Would love to see that verify. Seems like it could be a bit overdone though, but who knows. Feel like there will be some nice totals somewhere, but not sure how widespread. Will be very welcomed whoever gets it as the trails have been taking a beating and tomorrow they will really deteriorate with all the rain.

 

GFS is way farther east and a bit weaker

 

Icon looks like the NAM’s with similar strength and location.

 

While even the UK had a 979 mb SLP, pretty sure this run of the NAM3k takes the cake for depth of storm and early switch to snow, hence the good accum's on Tom's map. Be neat if it ended up verifying but wouldn't count on it (yet)

 

20191128 12z nam3 h52 Surf.png

  • Like 2

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yikes, not good to see fatalities..Peeps need to be aware. No Ice Storm Warning issued or what??

Although a few recent model runs showed freezing rain, I don’t think any of them showed as much as what has fallen already. Even with the morning update MPX said zero ice accretion for the metro. This was an absolute surprise.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ukie has the low sitting and spinning in northern WI for a good 18-24 hours it looks like

 

Some good snow amounts showing up

 

Post the UK if you can. Thx

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I’m up to 2.11” of rain already and judging by radar coming down good in Omaha.

I’m currently in Yankton SD where there was no snow or freezing rain last and is just foggy and drizzly right now. Snow is supposed to move in tonight with 4-8”

 

:huh:  Thought you said 8-16" before?

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...