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December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter


clintbeed1993

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Updated warning! Keep coming east!!!

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Hastings NE
257 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

...Winter Weather Conditions Expected Through Sunday...

NEZ040-046-047-061-062-072>074-291000-
/O.UPG.KGID.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-191230T0000Z/
/O.EXA.KGID.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-191230T0000Z/
Greeley-Sherman-Howard-Buffalo-Hall-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-
Including the cities of Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach,
Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield, St. Libory, Kearney,
Grand Island, Elwood, Johnson Lake, Holdrege, and Minden
257 PM CST Sat Dec 28 2019

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

The National Weather Service in Hastings has issued a Winter
Storm Warning for snow and blowing snow, which is in effect until
6 PM CST Sunday. The Winter Weather Advisory is no longer in
effect.


* WHAT...Rain is expected to change to snow this evening and may
be heavy at times, especially from about 8 pm through 2 or 3 am.
There is the potential for a quick 3 to 5 inches of snow
tonight. The heavier snow will taper off by dawn, but light snow
will linger through the day Sunday, possibly dropping another
inch or so of new snow. North winds will ramp up as well and
gust over 40 mph by Sunday afternoon causing blowing snow. Storm
total snow of 4 to 6 inches is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of south central Nebraska, northwest of a line
from Arapahoe...to Grand Island...to Greeley.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce
visibility in some areas tonight into Sunday. Roads may be ice
and snow packed overnight and during the day Sunday in some
areas. Travel could be difficult at times tonight within heavier
snow bands.

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Gonna be an interesting read today, short term models are showing convection with the change over. Good luck Central and Clint!

Same to you. I’ve been following the HRRR and RAP models more as we are close to the event. We all do well on those. Tomorrow will be nasty with a lot of blowing and drifting.

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Holy god, did this get interesting quickly or what?! This thing has dropped South a ton. Must be slowing down, d**n this low pressure is a BEAST. A thing to marvel. A huge what could have been here in Nebraska. We could still salvage something from it, LET'S GET IT ON.

 

I am sweating bullets right on the edge of the heavy snow band area. I could see it missing me 1 county north or west. I'm trying to contain excitement until the bands set up. This has big bust potential as the heaviest pockets should be pretty isolated. If you're lucky enough to get under one, LOOK OUT.   Here's the latest Hastings NWS snowfall update

post-133-0-41037500-1577569867_thumb.png

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12z Euro...brings a health wave of snow here Mon night...

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw.png

 

 

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

And it takes a really nice path straight up the middle of the Mitt, curves NW to the Keweenaw, then back down south and east. Spreads the wealth with the 1-3" pinwheel portion even further south. Hard to tell if it has a firm handle on lake contribution on this side of the pond or not tbh? What do you think? Do programmers in Germany sit around trying to tweak localized effects for the midwest in America? 

 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Border to border system - wow if this had more cold to play with!

 

20191228 5 pm Surf Map.jpg

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Lotta rain comin for mby and there could even be some thunder as well as temps really climb well into the 50s and possibly 60s. Incredible!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Border to border system - wow if this had more cold to play with!

 

attachicon.gif20191228 5 pm Surf Map.jpg

Exactly...and its end of December. That goes to show you how fricken messed up the pattern is. I could understand if it was late November, but at this time of the year, it should be all snow and not having to deal w rain. Hard to believe that even Wisconsin is getting rain outta this system and southern parts of MN currently and not snow. Crazy!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Local spot forecast: at least 3-5” tonight, 1-3” tomorrow and winds could reach 40 mph tomorrow. This should be fun.

Wow...enjoy it. Should be fun w all of that blowing snow.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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As I figured the severe weather is zapping the moisture. Doesn't matter much here but the people getting snow bleh.

Speaking of severe weather, I might be in for a few claps of Thunder tomorrow w this system and strong winds as well. Not ruling out a couple of record highs as well. Its going to get wild here on Sunday.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Huge, just think if we had an Artic air mass in place.  What could have been.

Wouldn't that be something....dang! Whole different scenery for a lot of us.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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..and making landfall as a CAT-4 hurr.. (oh wait, wrong season) 

 

20191228 18z nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh35-60.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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There is finally some heavier rain moving into my area.  It's a solid line, so it shouldn't be able to miss.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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..and making landfall as a CAT-4 hurr.. (oh wait, wrong season) 

 

attachicon.gif20191228 18z nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh35-60.gif

WOW!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Tornado warning north of Joplin, crazy weather!

EAX_loop.gif

Just amazing! That line of storms , so well defined.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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18z Euro

1577869200-7KqVujtBHcs.png

 

Have you always been posting Kuchera version? Significant uptick for all of WMI, that's why I'm asking.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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So apparently the constant freeze/thaw cycle the last week or so has caused an ice dam to build below one of my skylights. I see a small wet spot on my ceiling. For the love of all things holy.....stop raining in late Dec. Please. Another 1” or so of rain overnight won’t help.

I feel for ya! Ice dams can be no joke and can cause some serious damage. If you have some salt and some pantyhose, you can fill them up with the salt and place them on the roof perpendicular to the roof line to create channels for the water to drain. Just be careful! Good luck!

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I feel for ya! Ice dams can be no joke and can cause some serious damage. If you have some salt and some pantyhose, you can fill them up with the salt and place them on the roof perpendicular to the roof line to create channels for the water to drain. Just be careful! Good luck!

Thanks for the tip! Coincidentally I bought some roof ice melt a few weeks ago at Home Depot. I put a few salt pucks up there just now. I just didn’t think I’d need them in December. Really hoping that dry slot comes quicker than modeled. A high of 43F tomorrow should help too.

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LNK is at 1.87" of rain for the day. The daily record for December is 2.13" on 12/15/84. More rain is about to move in so it's gonna be a close call. The daily record of 0.33" has already been shattered. Woohoo. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   2018-19: 55.5"   2019-20: 17.6"   2020-21: 49.4"   2021-22: 5.1" 🤮

Average: 26"

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Jesus, the latest HRRR is juiced.  Really impressive deformation band across the area, just waiting for the changeover here. Should time well with these intense precipitation bands.  It's really going to rip under these

 

EDIT: Changeover has occurred! It's going to be a crazy next few hours. Radar is very impressive

post-133-0-85909000-1577589891_thumb.png

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Jesus, the latest HRRR is juiced. Really impressive deformation band across the area, just waiting for the changeover here. Should time well with these intense precipitation bands. It's really going to rip under these

 

EDIT: Changeover has occurred! It's going to be a crazy next few hours. Radar is very impressive

Second nice winter storm for you this year. Still waiting for one in SE Nebraska.

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