December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[james1976]

Cold front moved through. Was 48 early this morning. Now down to 40 with a gusty NW wind. Hoping for wrap around snow later but not expecting much.

[CentralNebWeather]

"The Press wants to know" how's it going out there in Jackzone-land??

Reports so far are 7-12” with another large area of snow moving north to south basically from South Dakota to Kansas. I think I have 7-8” as of now (unofficially) with moderate snow falling. Just northeast of me Kearney has 10” and just north of there reports of 12”. This is all as of 10 am. I could get 2-5” more if the band sits where it is now.

[james1976]

Reports so far are 7-12” with another large area of snow moving north to south basically from South Dakota to Kansas. I think I have 7-8” as of now (unofficially) with moderate snow falling. Just northeast of me Kearney has 10” and just north of there reports of 12”. This is all as of 10 am. I could get 2-5” more if the band sits where it is now.

Wow congrats!

[jaster220]

Reports so far are 7-12” with another large area of snow moving north to south basically from South Dakota to Kansas. I think I have 7-8” as of now (unofficially) with moderate snow falling. Just northeast of me Kearney has 10” and just north of there reports of 12”. This is all as of 10 am. I could get 2-5” more if the band sits where it is now.

 

  Sweet! Good luck with the rest of today! 

[jaster220]

0z NAM via KCH giving mby 4" thru the event. My goal is just to get another plowable event (2.5+) so I at least have a shot at hitting the target. 

 

[Stormy]

Seeing the massive shield of rain in Mo. last evening I thought I might get a lot more rainfall lasting most of the night, but that dry slot meant buisness and rapidly expanded, with rain ending shortly after midnight. I ended up with 1.35" bringing my Dec. total to 1.52". My yearly total precip. is only 0.18" shy of 50" now. Was hoping for a bit more if it's going to be that close!

[Money]

12z runs upping the totals here

 

GFS, Icon, NAM, RGEM all have 5-7 total or so

[OmahaSnowFan]

I’m at maybe 1.5” here in Yankton SD. It’s a wet snow that stuck to the trees, so it’s pretty outside. Heavy band sat a county west of here overnight and early this morning. Now it’s weakened. Sigh...

[Niko]

0z NAM via KCH giving mby 4" thru the event. My goal is just to get another plowable event (2.5+) so I at least have a shot at hitting the target. 

 

20191229 0z nam h84 snowfall KCH.png

I'll take that as well. Provides my area w 2"+.

[Clinton]

12z GFS mean

[Mi_Matthew]

Most of the snow falls Tue 12 am and onward. If you're staying thru Tuesday you may not have to go anywhere. Also, how old are the nieces? Are they teens looking for "Deadman's Hill" or something a little less extreme?

They're 2 & 3, my brother just got them their first sleds. Any hill would be cool. The cottage we'll be at has a small hill leading down to the lake but I don't trust the ice at this point.

[jaster220]

They're 2 & 3, my brother just got them their first sleds. Any hill would be cool. The cottage we'll be at has a small hill leading down to the lake but I don't trust the ice at this point.

 

Ahh, you need a little hill or they'll be afraid for life of sledding, lol. I'm afraid I won't be of much help since I live quite south of that area. Best of luck with the snow and finding a good little hill. 

[Niko]

12z GFS mean

Looks like a snowy scene here in SEMI come Mon nite-Tues.

[Niko]

The lawns are mostly brownish but with the recent warmth, and rainfall as well, it greened up just a hair! I sure wasn't expecting such a mild December though when reading this forum back in November! Kudos to the CPC for forecasting that accurately (warm December) awhile back.

Yep, good call!

[westMJim]

The current official temperature of 52° and Muskegon makes today the 2^nd warmest December 29^th in Grand Rapids and 3^rd warmest at Muskegon recorded history.  The record of 65 at Grand Rapids is safe the number 2 and record at Muskegon is 54 in 1984 and 53 in 1908.The current temperature here at my house is 50.

[Clinton]

Looks like a snowy scene here in SEMI come Mon nite-Tues.

Good luck, things keep trending better for ya.

[Niko]

Good luck, things keep trending better for ya.

Thx bud....hopefully, we can add a little snow for this pathetic month!

[Hoosier]

There should be some pretty big wind potential early Monday in a zone from eastern IN into parts of OH/MI. Surface low deepens very quickly and so there is a corresponding robust response in the low level wind fields. I think some areas will flirt with or get into high wind warning criteria for a time.

[jaster220]

12z GFS mean

 

Looking better here in far SWMI  

[Niko]

Looking better here in far SWMI  

Perhaps 3-4" for yby could be in the game.

[jaster220]

Quite the expansion of Blizzard Warnings! Kind of expected that, but always nice to see..

 

[St Paul Storm]

12z runs upping the totals here

GFS, Icon, NAM, RGEM all have 5-7 total or so

MKX not buying it or what? Thought there would be an advisory out at least. Not even any mention of accumulating snow in the HWO.

[Money]

MKX not buying it or what? Thought there would be an advisory out at least. Not even any mention of accumulating snow in the HWO.

I would imagine there would be an advisory at 3

 

I would go with 2-4/3-5 here personally. I always go a bit lower than what models say

[Niko]

Quite the expansion of Blizzard Warnings! Kind of expected that, but always nice to see..

 

20191229 NWS US Hazards.png

Hopefully in January, that red color will cover a lot of us further east.

[Iowawx]

I got 1.10" of rain last night from this storm system. A very decent rainfall to end a rather dry month. Did not see any thunderstorms however. 

 

It looks like most of the snow tommrow night will be north of the CR area, and thats ok with me. These 0.5" snowfall events are a waste and the snow will just melt really fast anyway with mild tempertures after the snow moves out. 

[jaster220]

     Mitt Hit incoming!

 

The Mitt's gonna ring in the New Year looking a whole lot more like the season it's supposed to be. Rarely seen a system delivering snow from Detroit to Copper Harbor! Amazing turn-about from where this all started a few days ago.

 

 

Good luck to all my fellow Lakes Peeps! 

[Stormy]

Tom, on 28 Dec 2019 - 09:59 AM, said:

Hey, who wants to go ice skating?? Up in MN you can literally put on your skates outside your front door and stroll through the neighborhood! Incredible...I don't think I've seen anything like that before.

 

https://pbs.twimg.co...kJEAGsw8yQ.jpg"href="https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1210930695977283591/pu/img/o9PIsLkJEAGsw8yQ.jpg" "="">https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/1210930695977283591/pu/img/o9PIsLkJEAGsw8yQ.jpg

 

April of '76, that was my (folk's) neighborhood, minus all the snow OTG. Jelly of all that snow they have still.

That happened in my neighborhood a few times in just the last 10-15 years!

[Mi_Matthew]

Mitt Hit incoming!

 

The Mitt's gonna ring in the New Year looking a whole lot more like the season it's supposed to be:

 

20191229 GRR Storm Graphic1.png

 

Good luck to all my fellow Lakes Peeps!

I'd be happy with the higher end of the 2-4", not counting on it though. I'm hoping to see a little bit of everything between late tonight and Tuesday evening. Big wild card for NW parts of Lower MI looks to be if the cold air can make it in quick enough to take advantage of the still bombing low, instead of waiting on LES & broad deformation snows. And good luck to you!

 

Edit: Looks like both 3km & 12km NAM coming in further east.

[jaster220]

I'd be happy with the higher end of the 2-4", not counting on it though. I'm hoping to see a little bit of everything between late tonight and Tuesday evening. Big wild card for NW parts of Lower MI looks to be if the cold air can make it in quick enough to take advantage of the still bombing low, instead of waiting on LES & broad deformation snows. And good luck to you!

 

Edit: Looks like both 3km & 12km NAM coming in further east.

 

Yeah, not the set-up you can take to the bank but we've been lucky here in the Mitt with almost every event over-performing and doling out surprises. Dec 1st wasn't even supposed to hit GR and they had 5" thanks to a surprise flip to snow. An earlier flip up your way isn't out of the question imho. Either way, we'll get to see winter again. Enjoy your trip 

[jaster220]

MQT wasted no time going to a Warning! I wish we had the problem of deciding if it would be 10-14" or 14-18" 

[Tom]

12z Euro...

[Mi_Matthew]

Yeah, not the set-up you can take to the bank but we've been lucky here in the Mitt with almost every event over-performing and doling out surprises. Dec 1st wasn't even supposed to hit GR and they had 5" thanks to a surprise flip to snow. An earlier flip up your way isn't out of the question imho. Either way, we'll get to see winter again. Enjoy your trip

Thank you. And right on cue, look at that band on the 3km NAM! Getting closer.

[jaster220]

12z Euro...

 

Go Euro! I'm pretty much capped at a 2-3" event down here, but man it's amping up NWMI and Gaylord's AFD's have hardly been giving this potential a courtesy nod.   

[Mi_Matthew]

12z Euro...

Thanks Tom, Euro & NAM looking better each run!

[Stormy]

Sorry Niko, I accidentally down voted your reply as I'm on my phone. This dumb new karma system just changed while I was on here. What sucks is that I can't change my vote after accidentally hitting a button!

[Stacsh]

Mitt Hit incoming!

 

The Mitt's gonna ring in the New Year looking a whole lot more like the season it's supposed to be. Rarely seen a system delivering snow from Detroit to Copper Harbor! Amazing turn-about from where this all started a few days ago.

 

20191229 GRR Storm Graphic1.png

 

Good luck to all my fellow Lakes Peeps!

I’ve seen this set up over-perform here just N of GR. Hoping it’s the case. Temps have been warm though and don’t get very cold.

[Niko]

     Mitt Hit incoming!

 

The Mitt's gonna ring in the New Year looking a whole lot more like the season it's supposed to be. Rarely seen a system delivering snow from Detroit to Copper Harbor! Amazing turn-about from where this all started a few days ago.

 

20191229 GRR Storm Graphic1.png

 

Good luck to all my fellow Lakes Peeps! 

Looks good amigo!

[Niko]

NOAA's 4pm Package:
 

The rest of Monday will be cloudy and blustery with ongoing cold
advection as the two lows merge over the eastern UP. Light
showers/drizzle will continue to be possible through the day as low-
level moisture wraps around the system, but moisture depth will be
quite limited and don`t expect more than a scattered coverage.
Temperatures will steadily fall through the day as the column cools,
bringing the potential for some snow to mix in with any light
showers by the evening. The real chance for snow ramps up on Tuesday
morning as the stacked low finally releases east and tracks into
southern Ontario/Quebec. Inbound height falls will provide upward
motion while resurgence of low-level cold air strengthens near-
surface lapse rates and Lake Michigan provides moisture enhancement.
Convective heights build to about 7 kft by early afternoon with the
top of this layer favorably within the DGZ. Light and fluffy snow
will accumulate rather easily to about 1 to 3 inches before better
forcing moves out by late afternoon. Lingering snow showers will
likely persist into Tuesday evening with little additional
accumulation.
 

[jaster220]

I’ve seen this set up over-perform here just N of GR. Hoping it’s the case. Temps have been warm though and don’t get very cold.

 

You're a hard guy to please. Not many days ago before this whole secondary swinging up thru the Mitt came into the realm of possibility the entire event looked 95% liquid for us.

 

 

 

 

I’ve seen this set up over-perform here just N of GR

 

Trends have been our friend - run with it  

[Niko]

Sorry Niko, I accidentally down voted your reply as I'm on my phone. This dumb new karma system just changed while I was on here. What sucks is that I can't change my vote after accidentally hitting a button!