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December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter


clintbeed1993

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18z NAM3k with an epic early switch-over up in NWMI. Showing rates that are at the high end of their map scale (little blob of pink). That'd be 6+ inches/hr!  Wouldn't that be something to experience? Would be rare in this part of the world if it did happen. 

 

20191229 18z NAM_Surf_fh20.GIF

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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18z NAM3k with an epic early switch-over up in NWMI. Showing rates that are at the high end of their map scale (little blob of pink). That'd be 6+ inches/hr!  Wouldn't that be something to experience? Would be rare in this part of the world if it did happen. 

 

attachicon.gif20191229 18z NAM_Surf_fh20.GIF

Man, that looks like a wall of snow ready to snow you in. Something you wont see, not even during an EC massive blizzard!! :lol: :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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There should be some pretty big wind potential early Monday in a zone from eastern IN into parts of OH/MI. Surface low deepens very quickly and so there is a corresponding robust response in the low level wind fields. I think some areas will flirt with or get into high wind warning criteria for a time.

 

Dude! You're on it. Idk how you keep up with it all, all the time no less! Major kudos btw

 

So, first I likely have flooding concerns with the SLP now progged to ride just to my east:

 

20191229 12z hrdps_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_20.png

 

Then, winds become a potential issue:

 

-- Strong winds with snow Monday afternoon into Tuesday --

12z model guidance has caught our attention with regard to

potentially higher impact wind gusts than originally thought. Of

first interest will be the immediate cold advection on the back

side of the deepening low across south central Lower Michigan

early Monday morning. While several HRRR runs have been off the

charts with some surface wind gusts across the US 127 corridor

(occasionally over 80 mph from Jackson to Lansing from 09z-12z

Mon) we do not believe this is realistic and may be a byproduct of

the model over-deepening the low and simulating winds that are too

high 1k-2k ft off the ground. However, with the Euro ensemble

members jumping on board with a high wind threat across the same

region (especially east of US 131 from 09z-12z Mon) we are

more concerned now.

 

The ensemble mean wind gust at JXN for 12z Monday is 55 mph and

for LAN it is 58 mph. Thus we are anticipating a swath of 55-60

mph wind gusts to surge into south central Lower Michigan as the

sfc low deepens overhead, bringing with it a threat for power

outages on the morning of New Year`s Eve. Wind gusts of 40-50 mph

may also stretch all the way west toward Lake Michigan early

Monday morning. Once we are entrenched in cold air advection

Monday afternoon/evening, wind gusts hold up in the 35-45 mph

range with gusts to 50 mph along the lakeshore. Scattered power

outages may continue to be a problem throughout the day.

 

Who posted a couple days ago that the Euro seemed like it was trying to be as boring as possible??

 

My how things have changed! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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..and finally, the snowy part of this storm  :)

 

20191229 KRMY WWA.GIF

 

For the winter aspect, things look on track and if anything we

have bumped up snow totals a bit. The hardest hit areas look to be
east of the immediate lakeshore given the wind speeds smearing
lake enhanced bands of snow inland, but coastal locations will
still accumulate. Totals will likely reach 3"-7" near and west of
US 131, with some local amounts over 7" possible. East of this
region, a general 1"-3" is expected even as far east as US 127.
Model snow water equivalent has consistently been in the
0.30"-0.50" range for the snow portion of the system. Using our
Bufkit snow tool with various models yields the 3"-7" forecast we
are currently running with for the hardest hit areas. Heavy snow
rates can be expected prior to and right during the Tuesday
morning commute when an inch or more per hour is possible. Surface
temperatures at or below freezing combined with steady snow will
cause slick travel and delays.

We have decided to combine the snow and wind impacts into one
Winter Weather Advisory product as opposed to two. We will
already be lighting up the map with a Lakeshore Flood Advisory and
areal Flood Advisory, so condensing the Winter and Wind headlines
into one is favored to avoid over complicating our WWA system.
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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HRRR beats others in tanking the SLP. 18z got it down to 974 mb's and look at that snow shield clear back to WMN 

 

20191229 18z hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_h25.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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The 18zGFS has a 975mb low just north of my area for tomorrow. Pretty impressive.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Jaster--there ya go! Hope we can do better, but I will take anything at this point. :D

 

Btw: My totals just got upped to 2-3inches w addional accumuations possibly early evening tomorrow.

 

I like your Headline....... ;)

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-300515-/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0030.191230T0900Z-200101T0000Z/Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Charlotte,Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM ESTTUESDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.  Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Monday morning and then up to 40  mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday.* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could  significantly reduce visibility. The most hazardous winter  weather conditions will be late Monday night into Tuesday  morning. Plan on Tuesday morning commute delays. Scattered  power outages are possible.
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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Jaster--there ya go! Hope we can do better, but I will take anything at this point. :D

 

Btw: My totals just got upped to 2-3inches w addional accumuations possibly early evening tomorrow.

 

I like your Headline....... ;)

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-300515-
/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0030.191230T0900Z-200101T0000Z/
Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-
Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-
Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,
Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Charlotte,
Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson
406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.
  Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Monday morning and then up to 40
  mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.

* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could
  significantly reduce visibility. The most hazardous winter
  weather conditions will be late Monday night into Tuesday
  morning. Plan on Tuesday morning commute delays. Scattered
  power outages are possible.

Good luck! I’m in the sweet spot for LEHS. They are Going with 4-7” here with 40-55 mph gusts.

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Jaster--there ya go! Hope we can do better, but I will take anything at this point. :D

 

Btw: My totals just got upped to 2-3inches w addional accumuations possibly early evening tomorrow.

 

I like your Headline....... ;)

Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Grand Rapids MI406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019MIZ039-040-045-046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074-300515-/O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0030.191230T0900Z-200101T0000Z/Osceola-Clare-Mecosta-Isabella-Montcalm-Gratiot-Ionia-Clinton-Eaton-Ingham-Calhoun-Jackson-Including the cities of Reed City, Clare, Big Rapids,Mount Pleasant, Greenville, Alma, Ionia, St. Johns, Charlotte,Lansing, Battle Creek, and Jackson406 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM ESTTUESDAY...* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches.  Winds gusting as high as 55 mph Monday morning and then up to 40  mph Monday afternoon into Tuesday.* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.* WHEN...From 4 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday.* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could  significantly reduce visibility. The most hazardous winter  weather conditions will be late Monday night into Tuesday  morning. Plan on Tuesday morning commute delays. Scattered  power outages are possible.

 

Nice! Cheers to an over-performer for all of us! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Per IWX

 

338 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019 /238 PM CST Sun Dec 29 2019/


...Strong Wind Gusts Expected At Times Late Tonight...

Strong southwest winds are expected to gust up to around 40 mph
at times late tonight and into Monday. Be sure to secure loose
objects like lawn furniture and holiday decorations
as well as
trash cans that could be lofted within these winds.

 

Don't let Santa and his reindeers blow away! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Good luck! I’m in the sweet spot for LEHS. They are Going with 4-7” here with 40-55 mph gusts.

Thx...yep, should be fun watching this snowevent unfold. You are looking golden w this.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Actually have some decent snowfall currently. Have a decent band slowly working through but we will see how long it last

Hope ya score a couple of inches. ;)

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Nice! Cheers to an over-performer for all of us! 

Yes sir! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Getting a little bit of snow this evening, a nice surprise may get a dusting.

Awesome bud......enjoy it! :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looking like 1 to 1.5 The band is starting to fizz out.

Great, better than nothing I guess. :) It will look like a nice  Winter Wonderland out there tomorrow during daylight.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like the 30/0z SR models have come into better agreement with the strength and track of the secondary SLP. They're mostly showing a low to mid-980's mb central pressure and a stalling point in E Lk Superior, then back down thru the Straights/Tip of the Mitt region. Both are about as good as I could ask for personally. A deeper low like some were flashing might've been just too much a good thing with wind speeds detrimental to the Lk Michigan contribution facet. Between the expected winds and the occasionally heavy rates, this should make for yet another enjoyable "mini-storm" like I received here on the 17th

 

Here's a 44 hour loop off the NAM. Should be a pretty wild time after all this faux spring weather this week..

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh10-54.gif

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like the 30/0z SR models have come into better agreement with the strength and track of the secondary SLP. They're mostly showing a low to mid-980's mb central pressure and a stalling point in E Lk Superior, then back down thru the Straights/Tip of the Mitt region. Both are about as good as I could ask for personally. A deeper low like some were flashing might've been just too much a good thing with wind speeds detrimental to the Lk Michigan contribution facet. Between the expected winds and the occasionally heavy rates, this should make for yet another enjoyable "mini-storm" like I received here on the 17th

 

Here's a 44 hour loop off the NAM. Should be a pretty wild time after all this faux spring weather this week..

 

attachicon.gifnamconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh10-54.gif

Looks like some intense snowfall w this ( at times). :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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APX update. FINALLY mentioning potential smack-down flip to heavy snow rates over NWMI  ;)

 

.UPDATE...

Issued at 1002 PM EST Sun Dec 29 2019

 

Deep troughing centered just to our west, with well developed

shortwave rounding the base of this trough into Missouri.

Combination of this wave and excellent upper jet support driving a

large area of moderate to heavy rain across the Ohio Valley into

the lower Great Lakes. Surface response to this deep forcing just

starting to get its act together, with 1000mb low pressure moving

northeast across western Kentucky. Other than some drizzle/very

light showers, our area has been rather quiet this evening as mid

level dry slot remains.

 

Expect rapid changes as we head through the overnight as low

pressure continues to deepening, reaching sub 990mb depth as it

moves across southeast lower Michigan during the early morning.

Deep forcing supplied by increasingly negative tilt mid level wave

and phenomenal upper jet support will rapidly spread rain north

across our area. Deep warm nose aloft will keep precipitation

liquid. However, current surface temperatures are still right

around freezing for areas north of the big bridge, and with

strengthening east flow, feel these temperatures will change

little. This continues to support as least pockets of freezing

rain, with some areas of northeast Chippewa county perhaps seeing

over a tenth of an inch of freezing rain by sunrise. Rain amounts

will be quite impressive after midnight for parts of northern

lower, with totals up and over three quarters of an inch by Monday

morning.

 

Complicated forecast as we head through Monday, with increasing

support for rapid dynamically forced cooling of the warm nose

aloft across at least the northwest half of the area. This could

result in heavy rain quickly transition to snow, with heavy snow

rates resulting in quick accumulations and possible hazardous

driving conditions. Will continue to analyze the full 00z

guidance suite to access this potential high impact weather.

 
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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like some intense snowfall w this ( at times). :D

 

They haven't moved the needle down my way, but there's some 8+ blobs now showing up in the jackpot zone along Lk Michigan snow belt counties. Wouldn't be surprised if somebody hits double digits, especially liking the region from Grand Haven up to Benzonia. 

 

20191229 GRR Storm Graphic2.png

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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My office's AFD's are more like "it's gonna be windy" and "it's a deepening SLP". Things anyone could write really.

 

But when I read stuff I don't fully comprehend, I know there's some serious wx happening. Like this snippet from MQT

 

After this initial slug of WAA precip, focus turns to the developing

fgen band/commahead. It is still expected to cover most of the U.P.,
but there has been a slight trend east with the strongest fgen late
morning into the afternoon (identified well by the 700 mb fgen) with
the morning model runs. It`s now possible that it sets up just east
of Marquette. The 12z NAM still parked it right over Marquette and
the extended range HRRR still has it over the western U.P., but the
hot-off-the-presses 18z NAM did shift east as well.

Not only is this forecast an issue of where the fgen band sets up
and pivots, but it also matters how much precip ends up getting
wrung out of it in the heavy band. The NAM is an outlier on QPF, but
the convective signal is there so this is one of those cases where
it may be prudent to not write it off immediately. A NAM xsec from
NW to SE is classic for very heavy snow with strong fgen tilted
towards the cold air. There is -EPV in the 700-500 mb layer, and
even some folding over the saturation isentropes indicating pockets
of elevated CAPE (and plenty of CSI where they`re not folded over
but vertical enough for geostrophic momentum surfaces to show a
temporary negative change with height in theta-e*). So we have
strong forcing, instability, and anomalously high moisture amounts
(PWATs of about 0.75" would be near-record for the combined
APX/Sault Ste Marie sounding climo) so it`s definitely believable
that the NAM`s QPF could end up verifying.

 

Sure wish we could get something going of that magnitude yet this winter

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Looks like the 30/0z SR models have come into better agreement with the strength and track of the secondary SLP. They're mostly showing a low to mid-980's mb central pressure and a stalling point in E Lk Superior, then back down thru the Straights/Tip of the Mitt region. Both are about as good as I could ask for personally. A deeper low like some were flashing might've been just too much a good thing with wind speeds detrimental to the Lk Michigan contribution facet. Between the expected winds and the occasionally heavy rates, this should make for yet another enjoyable "mini-storm" like I received here on the 17th

 

Here's a 44 hour loop off the NAM. Should be a pretty wild time after all this faux spring weather this week..

 

attachicon.gifnamconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh10-54.gif

Back in the Autumn, this is what we both had envisioned during the Winter.  It's really unfortunate the cold air wasn't around this time.  This system part of the LRC is on my calendar a couple more times this season, so hopefully it can deliver the goods from start to finish next time.  BTW, the wind factor is really impressive with this beast.  Wonder how low the baro will go??  

 

There is a Flood Advisory issued for W MI peeps as quite the heavy precip is exploding as the SLP deepens over S MI.  SLP is located right over DTX at the moment.

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HRRR has shown for several runs now a jack zone very close by. 3-4" per hour rates! I'm starting to get a bit excited now. Light rains have become a downpour. Sounds like a mid-summer thundershower(w/o the thunder) on the roof. Man, if this could only changeover with this precip rate.

The radar is explosive!  Very impressive...take some pics when the transition occurs.  It's gonna get wild up there.

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