Clinton Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 6z EC and mean Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 12Z NAM is west too. The Black Hills of western SoDak might be able to pull this one in yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Enjoy the warmth and needed rain!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 We need rain so bad I hope it pans out! We definitely aren't hurting from lack of soil moisture here, but I'll gladly take some rain again. Maybe your soil moisture is much lower than here? It just barely dries off this time of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 We definitely aren't hurting from lack of soil moisture here, but I'll gladly take some rain again. Maybe your soil moisture is much lower than here? It just barely dries off this time of the year. We never have dry soils during this low sun angle season. Sure we have more trees, but even out in the plains I would imagine any perceived dryness is only at the surface. Can't imagine real drought conditions persisting. Snow also adds moisture when it melts. I'll take snow this time of year. Keep the rain for April showers. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Exactly. Dryness in the winter is overrated. We never have dry soils during this low sun angle season. Sure we have more trees, but even out in the plains I would imagine any perceived dryness is only at the surface. Can't imagine real drought conditions persisting. Snow also adds moisture when it melts. I'll take snow this time of year. Keep the rain for April showers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Bring on icon 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Gfs coming in even farther west Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 GFS is a perfect track for me. Of course every model looks different. Euro is the farthest west as of the 0z. If that comes a little farther East my expectations would go up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 12z GFS. Yes please. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Definitely wasn’t looking for a post Christmas rain storm but I’d rather get an inch of rain than dry slotted so bring it on I guess 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 We never have dry soils during this low sun angle season. Sure we have more trees, but even out in the plains I would imagine any perceived dryness is only at the surface. Can't imagine real drought conditions persisting. Snow also adds moisture when it melts. I'll take snow this time of year. Keep the rain for April showers. Snow doesn’t add much moisture if soil has already frozen. That’s why there is often some flooding during snowmelt in the spring especially when combined with rainfall. Another thing, we sometimes do have dry soils and drought if it’s dry going into the cold season (which wasn’t the case for a number of years) as ANY precipitation oftentimes won’t penetrate if it’s frozen. Basically, we really don’t need much precipitation during the winter on frozen soils. The main agricultural benefit with snow that I can think of is to insulate plants etc. And of course some peoples livelihoods depend on snow plus many other reasons to like snow! Sometimes it’s beneficial to have deaply frozen soils to freeze out some pests. Just yesterday I was trying to dig out some some soil from the field to fill in some low spots around the house, and I had a hard time getting it with my heavy skid steer loader as it was frozen surprisingly hard yet! But it was bare soil and I doubt grass covered areas are frozen much anymore. End of boring rant! Lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 GFS has about 2" of rain at LNK followed by 1-2" of snow. Big yikes. Double the December precipitation average in one storm and it falls as rain. My layover back home on the 29th is at MSP, so I'm watching the track closely. 1 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Bring on iconWe are riding such an odd edge with that output. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Taking a break from preparing for a big Christmas party at our place this year. The house smells soooo good! Well, we have seen this script before...the 12z Euro hammers the Dakota's and Upper MW... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 GFS led the way on this one. Gotta give it credit. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 I am riding the line with the Euro, much better with GFS. All runs put down a lot of moisture. Euro has 1.5” of precipitation in all different forms. Canadian wants to put most down as sleet and freezing rain. It will be fun to see how it plays out. Even if we get a decent snow, it won’t stick around long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 What factors are at play that could cause a shift in the current forecasted track? Is there a high pressure anywhere in sight that might speed up/drop down and push this further south and east? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 What factors are at play that could cause a shift in the current forecasted track? Is there a high pressure anywhere in sight that might speed up/drop down and push this further south and east?I’ve wondered the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 Just saw my spot forecast for Friday night, “snow, possibly mixed with rain, freezing rain and sleet, snow accumulations possible.” That would be fun to watch but not drive in. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 For fun, 18z GFS clobbers Southwest, Central, and Northeast Nebraska 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 18z GFS. Gabel23 and Clint would like this run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 LOVE how that curves right around me. Been like that all season with these hard cutters and I fully expect it again this time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 To be sure, I’m not trusting any solution yet and it may all fizzle to a rain storm. However we are only 2 days away now so you’d think we’d start seeing a consensus by tomorrow hopefully for travelers sake. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 18z GFS instant weather maps 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 25, 2019 Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 This is going to come down to the short runs. That freezing line is going to be moving. Plus there is a good chance that severe weather will start choking out the northern material. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 25, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 25, 2019 This is a pretty depressing storm. Shouldn't be getting rain at the end of December. It's even more upsetting that this storm has so much moisture to work with and it's wasted on a lack of cold air. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 0z 12km NAM. Some of this would also be sleet I assume. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 0z 12km NAM. Some of this would also be sleet I assume.92C4CE51-AF68-4692-9F6D-CB98FEAA686B.pngLooks like the NAM has you right in the transition zone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Here’s the actual snowfall and freezing rain amounts. Huge difference between Tropical Tidbits and Pivotal maps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted December 26, 2019 Author Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Jesus Christ. What would be 12 inches of snow, wasted on a sleet storm. This is a scrooge job Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 3km NAM with similar freezing rain amounts in Nebraska. Also has the same huge dry slot that moves in Saturday morning in Nebraska up into southeast SoDak as the 12k NAM. Freezing rain amounts are with the initial slug of moisture Friday night. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Yuck hold the freezing precipitation please. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Wow that’s a lot of freezing rain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 I wonder if people in the Dakotas ever get tired of all these 12-18” snowstorms. Crazy how it happens multiple times per year there. I just want one. LOL. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 Yea the dakotas have had an incredible decade. Maybe one day it’ll be our turn but I doubt it 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 All the models this evening have slowed the system a bit and are showing a secondary piece of energy rounding the base of the trough and shooting up into the lakes Sunday. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service Hastings NE245 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOWFRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT... .A storm system will cross Nebraska and Kansas Friday throughSunday...and it will bring a variety of precipitation types. Precipitation will begin as rain Friday afternoon and then change over to freezing rain...sleet...and snow over parts of the areaFriday night into Saturday. Current amounts of snow and ice are preliminary and will undergo changes today and tomorrow...as forecast details come into better focus...and confidence increasesfurther. Those with holiday travel plans should remain alert with the weather and closely monitor future forecasts. Phillips-Valley-Greeley-Nance-Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-Including the cities of Phillipsburg, Ord, Greeley, Spalding, Scotia, Wolbach, Fullerton, Genoa, Loup City, Sherman Reservoir, Litchfield, St. Libory, Central City, Lexington, Cozad, Willow Island, Gothenburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Aurora, Elwood,Johnson Lake, Holdrege, Minden, Hastings, Cambridge, Arapahoe, Oxford, Beaver City, Hollinger, Alma, Orleans, Franklin, Campbell, and Hildreth245 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH LATESATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of at least one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central Kansas and central and south central Nebraska. * WHEN...From Friday evening through late Saturday night. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 26, 2019 Report Share Posted December 26, 2019 The 00z Euro still painting a massive blizzard for the Great Plains/Dakotas and Upper MW region of MN. I'm noticing the model is picking up on an important feature that has cycled already multiple times this season which is Slowing down the storm and occluding over the GL's. It literally takes 3-4 days to track through our Sub. The Hudson Bay block setting up shop is causing this storm to just sit and spin near the GL's region. Those who initially miss out on the snow and get rain in MN/WI eventually may get lucky to see some wrap around snows as the storm occludes. 00z Canadian looks similar... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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