December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[Tom]

00z GEFS trending NW and following the EPS..once inside Day 5, the King is the way to go...

 

 

 

 

06z GEFS...

 

[Tom]

Interesting to note, but there are several GEFS members showing spotty snows around the MW when the storm occludes.  Also, the LES signal for our MI members could provide some snows.

 

 

[Clinton]

Interesting to note, but there are several GEFS members showing spotty snows around the MW when the storm occludes.  Also, the LES signal for our MI members could provide some snows.

 

 

Hawkeye  mentioned a secondary piece of energy rounding the base, this happened the last time we saw this storm.  Could give some bonus accumulations to MW and GL.

[Stacsh]

Interesting to note, but there are several GEFS members showing spotty snows around the MW when the storm occludes.  Also, the LES signal for our MI members could provide some snows.

 

 

I would take 13 as it paints a dot over Grand Rapids lol. 

[Hawkeye]

The NAM is really showing the secondary energy now.  It's too bad the main plume of deep moisture has veered well east by this point.

 

[jaster220]

00z GEFS trending NW and following the EPS..once inside Day 5, the King is the way to go...

 

 

 

 

06z GEFS...

 

 

Even more noticeable. That's a MASSIVE snow shield across the Canadian provinces! When are we going to get a bowling ball storm like that here in the CONUS?? 

[jaster220]

The NAM is really showing the secondary energy now.  It's too bad the main plume of deep moisture has veered well east by this point.

 

namconus_z500_vort_us_fh72-84.gif

 

Some models had the secondary already a day or so ago. I think GEM or ICON was first to show it but with only 1 model doing so, I didn't make much of it. As for the moisture, yeah there's always something going wrong, eh?

 

Edit: I see that indeed with most models, we do get the moisture over here in the MItt. But ofc, it's way too warm for snow. 0z Euro didn't really pop a secondary S of us here either so I'm waiting to see if the 12z joins the other models or not?

[bud2380]

GFS with 18" in North Platte.  Not bad. 

[CentralNebWeather]

GFS with 18" in North Platte. Not bad.

Central and Western Nebraska crushed if GFS verifies. I do very well on this run. Comparing the last 3 runs I think it has come southeast a little. May be helping more of the people on here if that would continue.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS. This would be a belated Christmas present.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z GFS instantweathermaps. Good to look at different ones.

[St Paul Storm]

Haven’t been following this closely, but based on what things look like now I’m kind of hoping we can melt the remaining snowpack before the rain. Too much water on frozen ground is bad in my yard. Strange I’d be rooting for snow melt in late Dec.

[jaster220]

12z GFS. This would be a belated Christmas present.DEF440D6-E88C-4D30-A3EA-D770F378D578.png

 

Already under a Watch, maps continue to look interesting. You're having #funtimes. I've not had a Watch here in more than 3 yrs now. Enjoy whatever this brings. 

[CentralNebWeather]

Already under a Watch, maps continue to look interesting. You're having #funtimes. I've not had a Watch here in more than 3 yrs now. Enjoy whatever this brings.

Yea, issued earlier this morning. Local news already talking about travel issues. Saw on social media people seemed stunned that a storm is coming. Maps look more and more promising from my area and west.

[gabel23]

Hoping for an American model winner on this one, otherwise looks like mostly rain/ice for me. The gfs has been the most consistent so hoping the euro caves one more time in terms of the track. Nam would be ideal but so far it’s on its own in terms of that secondary low development.

[CentralNebWeather]

Hoping for an American model winner on this one, otherwise looks like mostly rain/ice for me. The gfs has been the most consistent so hoping the euro caves one more time in terms of the track. Nam would be ideal but so far it’s on its own in terms of that secondary low development.

Keep hope alive. It could all depend on 1-3 degrees either way on where that heavy snow line is. GFS and Canadian look golden for many. If we could have the Euro to come south and southeast just a little more I think we both do well. Of course how much falls as sleet/freezing rain will make the difference. Good luck bud.

[CentralNebWeather]

12z Canadian.

[jaster220]

Hawkeye  mentioned a secondary piece of energy rounding the base, this happened the last time we saw this storm.  Could give some bonus accumulations to MW and GL.

 

I would take 13 as it paints a dot over Grand Rapids lol. 

 

Can we compromise with #3? 

 

With the range being nada to 6+, this is a true wildcard potential. Just hoping the Euro joins the party for us WMI Peeps. 

[jaster220]

Hoping for an American model winner on this one, otherwise looks like mostly rain/ice for me. The gfs has been the most consistent so hoping the euro caves one more time in terms of the track. Nam would be ideal but so far it’s on its own in terms of that secondary low development.

 

I remember the other storm went your way in the end. You were initially looking at WWA level event but ended up a Warning. You should at least get some action with this, which is better than most on here. 

[Tom]

12z GEFS trending NW and following the EPS...

 

[Niko]

A nice soaker for mby. Cool.

 

[Hawkeye]

Some of the models this morning have backed off the influence of the second piece of energy.  The Euro doesn't do much with it until it gets up to Lake Superior.

[Stormgeek]

Well this is going to be a mess around here. Hopefully we can stay away from ice, that is never, ever, fun.

[Grizzcoat]

Haven’t been following this closely, but based on what things look like now I’m kind of hoping we can melt the remaining snowpack before the rain. Too much water on frozen ground is bad in my yard. Strange I’d be rooting for snow melt in late Dec.

The Lakes for ice fisher people and such are screwed with 1-2' of rain. 

[St Paul Storm]

The Lakes for ice fisher people and such are screwed with 1-2' of rain.

 

It looks like we’ll get dry slotted big time which will keep precip amounts down. But I was thinking the liquid precip will actually be good for re-doing the lake ice. The cross country skiers have left tracks in the snow and ice, and I’m hoping that’ll be fixed when the rain water freezes. Maybe that’s wishful thinking....

[CentralNebWeather]

Have read the afternoon discos of NWS Goodland KS and North Platte NE. (Hastings isn’t out yet). They keep saying how hard this forecast is and with temps hovering just above or below 32 makes it even more difficult. This will probably be a nowcast as we go along.

[gimmesnow]

The Lakes for ice fisher people and such are screwed with 1-2' of rain. 

 

Mine is already done. They were out a good half a mile on the ice before. Now there's a couple people huddled 50 feet off shore.

 

There is no way my hill will make it through this rain. I just got back, washed my car, and things are bad. They used to have two to three feet, now there's more like 6 inches to 18 inches. They can blow monday and tuesday night, at least accuwearther is lowering the lows those nights.

 

This is supposed to be the busiest time of the year for outdoor winter activities. And the local TV stations are all bragging about how warm it is.

 

EDIT: Thank goodness I don't go to Wilmot, they already have ground poking through their base and it hasn't even rainedyet.

[OmahaSnowFan]

[CentralNebWeather]

Here is the NWS Hastings afternoon disco for those interested. Kudos for how well written it is, even though they apologize for the difficult forecast challenges.

 

 

Main focus for the entire 7-day forecast period continues to lie

in the Friday through Sunday time frame. Want to state up front

that this forecaster`s confidence in things is not high...there

are still plenty of uncertainties with some pretty important

details. Folks should expect further adjustments in the forecast,

so be sure to stay up to date with the latest. Because of the

continued uncertainties in the forecast and collab with neighbors,

no changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch currently in

effect for the NW half of the CWA.

 

Compared to 24 hrs ago, models are in somewhat better agreement in

the bigger picture. The upper level low pressure system is

expected to slide into the Four Corners region by Friday evening,

filling as it becomes influenced by the northern stream

disturbance moving out of the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies.

Models show things being a little disorganized as we get into

Saturday, before a new organized low develops and moves out

through the Central Plains Sunday. While there isn`t the spread in

the model tracks there has been, there is still a notable

difference...as the GFS continues to take a more southern-eastern

track than other models, which would result in more of our CWA

being affected by a heavier snow band.

 

Ahead of the passage of the main upper low, there`s no lack of

broader scale lift across the region, with precipitation expected

to expand from SW-NE on Friday. At this point, most models keep

the first half of the day dry, with PoPs ramping up after 18Z.

This swath of precipitation, which may be heavy at times, is

expected to continue through the Fri evening-overnights

hours...with the axis of heaviest QPF currently forecast to line

up across the eastern half of the CWA. Precip chances continue on

into Saturday/Saturday night as the main upper low moves out onto

the Plains, and another uncertainty arises with how much of an

impact the accompanying dry slot has on precip across the CWA.

There are some big differences in models with whether there is

measurable precip around all day Sat or if a solution like the

18Z NAM pans out with little measurable precipitation. It`s not

until Sunday that the main upper low pushes through the area, but

how quickly it exits is yet another question, with the potential

for moisture/snow wrapping around the backside of the low. It may

not be until early Monday morning that precip finally pushes

completely E-NE of the CWA.

 

As far as precipitation type goes...model track differences (even

small ones) and thermal profile differences continue to throw a

big wrench in things...and as stated above, there are a lot of

uncertainties yet. Current thinking has precip starting out Friday

afternoon as rain being the primary type, but some models are

struggling even in this period with whether a wintry mix ends up

playing a bigger role than what is in the forecast now. Those

question marks continue into Friday night, one big question being

with where the transition zone between the warmer air to the east

and colder air the west ends up...at this point it looks to cut

through the heart of the CWA. During the daytime hours on

Saturday, there is the potential that a mainly rain p-type makes a

bit of a push north, but not enough to completely remove the

wintry mix mention in the NWrn CWA. Saturday night-Sunday, the

colder air is finally making a better push in, and the precip type

should transition over to all snow.

 

Looking at amounts...there is still the potential for a pretty

hefty axis of liquid by the time it`s all said and done (rain,

melted snow/freezing rain/sleet). Current forecast has a slight

eastward shift in that axis, basically along our counties east of

HWY 281. Current forecast has totals CWA-wide of at least around

an inch, with that heavier eastern corridor closer to 1.5"

(possibly more). Main questions are with ice amounts and snow

amounts, which will depend on how the thermal profiles pan out.

There is still the potential for roughly the northwestern 2/3rds

of the CWA to end up with anywhere from 0.05-0.25" of ice

accumulation, with lower amounts to the southeast. There was a

bigger change with the snowfall forecast amounts...not to sound

like a broken record...but there is a lot uncertainty with this.

Where the heavier frontogenetic band sets up is still in question,

but a blend of models focused more of that band over our NWrn

CWA...adding a few inches onto the forecast for the Ord-Lexington

areas. It`s still looking to be a pretty tight gradient across the

CWA...little (if any) accumulation in the southeast corner to

totals of 6+" in the northwest corner.

 

What snow does fall with time Saturday and moreso into Saturday

night-Sunday will have increasing northwesterly winds to further

complicate things. Sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH look

likely...combined with any falling snow would cause visibility and

further travel concerns. Those traveling this weekend really need

to stay on top of the latest forecast.

[jaster220]

As I've noticed, GRR sure has a lot of warmista Met's for an office that traditionally gets plenty of cold-n-snow

 

-- Rain moves in Saturday night and Sunday

As the vigorous upper low lifts northward into the upper Great
Lakes on Saturday, a large batch of precipitation will move into
our area. Thankfully, since we`ll be on the warm side of this
storm, everything that falls will be as rain.

[jaster220]

Might just be the NAM over-amped and NW at this range, but the 18z pops the secondary over Chicago vs east of the Mitt. I really need it more easterly if mby has any chance at meaningful snow outta the backwash from this storm. 

 

[Niko]

Might just be the NAM over-amped and NW at this range, but the 18z pops the secondary over Chicago vs east of the Mitt. I really need it more easterly if mby has any chance at meaningful snow outta the backwash from this storm. 

 

20191026 18z nam h84.png

Perhaps a little more ESE.

 

[jaster220]

@ Clinton

 

Anything new from the Euro bud? Missing your maps already 

 

Seems many/most models have the secondary spinning up near Superior and the period to watch for SWMI is mainly Mon overnight thru Tue. 

 

The 12z GEM's portrayal would actually be decent even down my way. Still a long ways to go and this will come down to SR models but at least there's a chance thus something to ponder. Not the BD I'd hoped to be tracking during my holiday recess, but sure beats nada

 

 

 

[Clinton]

@ Clinton

 

Anything new from the Euro bud? Missing your maps already 

 

Seems many/most models have the secondary spinning up near Superior and the period to watch for SWMI is mainly Mon overnight thru Tue. 

 

The 12z GEM's portrayal would actually be decent even down my way. Still a long ways to go and this will come down to SR models but at least there's a chance thus something to ponder. Not the BD I'd hoped to be tracking during my holiday recess, but sure beats nada

 

20191226 12z GEM Surf loop h114-144.gif

I will try and post some later tonight or tomorrow morning I am riding back from Illinois with my folks and can't get any maps to post off my phone.  As of now it looks like you may be able to pull an inch or two out of this.

[Clinton]

@Tom, I know it's fantasy land but the GFS and EC have flashed a big storm around the 8th of Jan.  It seems to look a lot like a storm we had around the 21st of Nov.  Just wanted to see if this was one on your radar or not?

[GDR]

Here is the NWS Hastings afternoon disco for those interested. Kudos for how well written it is, even though they apologize for the difficult forecast challenges.

 

 

Main focus for the entire 7-day forecast period continues to lie

in the Friday through Sunday time frame. Want to state up front

that this forecaster`s confidence in things is not high...there

are still plenty of uncertainties with some pretty important

details. Folks should expect further adjustments in the forecast,

so be sure to stay up to date with the latest. Because of the

continued uncertainties in the forecast and collab with neighbors,

no changes were made to the Winter Storm Watch currently in

effect for the NW half of the CWA.

 

Compared to 24 hrs ago, models are in somewhat better agreement in

the bigger picture. The upper level low pressure system is

expected to slide into the Four Corners region by Friday evening,

filling as it becomes influenced by the northern stream

disturbance moving out of the Pac NW into the Northern Rockies.

Models show things being a little disorganized as we get into

Saturday, before a new organized low develops and moves out

through the Central Plains Sunday. While there isn`t the spread in

the model tracks there has been, there is still a notable

difference...as the GFS continues to take a more southern-eastern

track than other models, which would result in more of our CWA

being affected by a heavier snow band.

 

Ahead of the passage of the main upper low, there`s no lack of

broader scale lift across the region, with precipitation expected

to expand from SW-NE on Friday. At this point, most models keep

the first half of the day dry, with PoPs ramping up after 18Z.

This swath of precipitation, which may be heavy at times, is

expected to continue through the Fri evening-overnights

hours...with the axis of heaviest QPF currently forecast to line

up across the eastern half of the CWA. Precip chances continue on

into Saturday/Saturday night as the main upper low moves out onto

the Plains, and another uncertainty arises with how much of an

impact the accompanying dry slot has on precip across the CWA.

There are some big differences in models with whether there is

measurable precip around all day Sat or if a solution like the

18Z NAM pans out with little measurable precipitation. It`s not

until Sunday that the main upper low pushes through the area, but

how quickly it exits is yet another question, with the potential

for moisture/snow wrapping around the backside of the low. It may

not be until early Monday morning that precip finally pushes

completely E-NE of the CWA.

 

As far as precipitation type goes...model track differences (even

small ones) and thermal profile differences continue to throw a

big wrench in things...and as stated above, there are a lot of

uncertainties yet. Current thinking has precip starting out Friday

afternoon as rain being the primary type, but some models are

struggling even in this period with whether a wintry mix ends up

playing a bigger role than what is in the forecast now. Those

question marks continue into Friday night, one big question being

with where the transition zone between the warmer air to the east

and colder air the west ends up...at this point it looks to cut

through the heart of the CWA. During the daytime hours on

Saturday, there is the potential that a mainly rain p-type makes a

bit of a push north, but not enough to completely remove the

wintry mix mention in the NWrn CWA. Saturday night-Sunday, the

colder air is finally making a better push in, and the precip type

should transition over to all snow.

 

Looking at amounts...there is still the potential for a pretty

hefty axis of liquid by the time it`s all said and done (rain,

melted snow/freezing rain/sleet). Current forecast has a slight

eastward shift in that axis, basically along our counties east of

HWY 281. Current forecast has totals CWA-wide of at least around

an inch, with that heavier eastern corridor closer to 1.5"

(possibly more). Main questions are with ice amounts and snow

amounts, which will depend on how the thermal profiles pan out.

There is still the potential for roughly the northwestern 2/3rds

of the CWA to end up with anywhere from 0.05-0.25" of ice

accumulation, with lower amounts to the southeast. There was a

bigger change with the snowfall forecast amounts...not to sound

like a broken record...but there is a lot uncertainty with this.

Where the heavier frontogenetic band sets up is still in question,

but a blend of models focused more of that band over our NWrn

CWA...adding a few inches onto the forecast for the Ord-Lexington

areas. It`s still looking to be a pretty tight gradient across the

CWA...little (if any) accumulation in the southeast corner to

totals of 6+" in the northwest corner.

 

What snow does fall with time Saturday and moreso into Saturday

night-Sunday will have increasing northwesterly winds to further

complicate things. Sustained speeds of 20-25 MPH look

likely...combined with any falling snow would cause visibility and

further travel concerns. Those traveling this weekend really need

to stay on top of the latest forecast.

wow that’s one heck of a write up

[CentralNebWeather]

wow that’s one heck of a write up

I have to give them credit, they’ve really stepped their game up this winter. That’s what a forecast discussion should be, not something that’s read on the evening weather report.

[Clinton]

I have to give them credit, they’ve really stepped their game up this winter. That’s what a forecast discussion should be, not something that’s read on the evening weather report.

The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run.

[Stormhunter87]

The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run.

[jaster220]

The 00z NAM really went dry for Nebraska this run.

 

Very Grinchy, that NAM. Doesn't mean it has to be correct tho. It flunked the test miserably with the OHV slider fwiw..not much, Ik