December 28th/29th Potential Plains/Great Lakes Cutter

[St Paul Storm]

Sleet has just begun falling here. Should be an interesting next 48 hours or so

Good luck down there!

[jaster220]

My office pm update:

 

Breezy with accumulating snow late Monday into Tuesday --

 

We have an opportunity mainly from 00z Tuesday through 00z

Wednesday to accumulate snow especially near and west of US 131.

It does look impactful for many locations with dropping

temperatures and a window of deep moisture through the DGZ. The

lake should be enhancing the synoptic snow which will spread over

the region mainly Monday night and Tuesday morning. GFS Bufkit

soundings suggest the best lift will be displaced below or just on

the bottom layer of the DGZ. While the DGZ initially is projected

to be a bit high (~10k ft) for the largest flakes to be preserved

on their descent to the ground, it does look to lower a few

thousand feet Tuesday morning. Some of the lift looks intense

especially from Holland to Ludington during the period of deeper

moisture. An early look at the Bufkit snow tool using the GFS

model suggests several inches of snow are likely for our WSW/W

flow lake effect belts, and some of the accumulation could also

occur further inland as well given wind speeds.

 

There is high confidence in 30-40 mph wind gusts Monday into

Tuesday. Winds initially from the SW Monday will shift westerly

by Tuesday. This will change the orientation of any lake enhanced

bands of snow. Also, tricky driving is anticipated after dark

Monday night and into especially early Tuesday with falling snow,

temperatures dropping just below freezing, and gusty winds

reducing visibility. There will likely be some travel delays.

 

30-40 mph gusts and periods of +SN? Would not be surprised to see a few lake shore counties get Watch Boxed. And those locales mentioned will be my chase target as I had already figured.

[jaster220]

Jaster, are you thinking 2 -4 for you on Monday?

Too early to even consider accums. Especially with such a complex non-conventional set-up. Initially the winds look unfavorable so I will need to get lucky to exceed 2" is my gut feeling. Things could trend better and I've seen these types of spinners over-perform with help from the lake. I think whoever gets in a jackzone in WMI is going to get a very nice surprise!

[Clinton]

Too early to even consider accums. Especially with such a complex non-conventional set-up. Initially the winds look unfavorable so I will need to get lucky to exceed 2" is my gut feeling. Things could trend better and I've seen these types of spinners over-perform with help from the lake. I think whoever gets in a jackzone in WMI is going to get a very nice surprise!

Good luck I hope things trend well for ya.

[Clinton]

18z EC

[Clinton]

18z EPS mean

[MIKEKC]

Please drop a lot of snow NW of K.C. We must claim our snowpack back! The blow torch took it away.

 

If we can get a good snow pack going, maybe the colder look to the data come around Jan. 7-12th can get here and lock into place.

 

Good luck to those in the path of this storm.

 

#claim our snowpack back

[clintbeed1993]

Warm air aloft is killing this for us.  Low is 32 tonight with plain rain in the forecast. That is ridiculous on December 27th.  Getting a rain sleet mix right now but this should be a snowstorm. I'm legit pissed off

[St Paul Storm]

High tomorrow and low tomorrow night both lowered a tick to 33F. If by some chance that’s warmer than what happens we’re gonna be hurting with 1” of rain falling on sub freezing ground temps. Possible thunder now in the point.

[centralweather44]

Warm air aloft is killing this for us. Low is 32 tonight with plain rain in the forecast. That is ridiculous on December 27th. Getting a rain sleet mix right now but this should be a snowstorm. I'm legit pissed off

I get it. Lincoln is supposed to see all rain. 2” in fact. The most snow we have seen in one storm is 1.5 this year.. We have been out twice for snow removal this year. Killer for a season business for sure. Guess that’s what we get for having a good January and February last year. Long range looks warm as well.

[CentralNebWeather]

0z NAM has that insane amount of snow back over my area that flashed several days ago then disappeared. This storm will have surprises for someone before it ends imo.

[CentralNebWeather]

Oz NAM.

[St Paul Storm]

0z NAM now puts 11.5” over MSP. Hmmmm. The low sits and spins and spins for days. Snow from that secondary piece that moves up through cheeseland retrogrades over the area. Wild stuff the next few days.

[CentralNebWeather]

Just checked the rain gauge, .50” already. Very impressive for this time of year. Some slick places on my driveway and sidewalks. Hearing some reports of slick spots on local highways.

[Hawkeye]

The secondary energy has become increasingly robust on the models, today.  The UK has the new low down to 979 mb in the UP and it now has widespread 1" backwash snow down through Iowa and Illinois.

[jaster220]

My office continues to speak positively:

 

-- Breezy with accumulating snow late Monday into Tuesday --

We have an opportunity mainly from 00z Tuesday through 00z
Wednesday to accumulate snow especially near and west of US 131.
It does look impactful for many locations with dropping
temperatures and a window of deep moisture through the DGZ. The
lake should be enhancing the synoptic snow which will spread over
the region mainly Monday night and Tuesday morning. GFS Bufkit
soundings suggest the best lift will be displaced below or just on
the bottom layer of the DGZ. While the DGZ initially is projected
to be a bit high (~10k ft) for the largest flakes to be preserved
on their descent to the ground, it does look to lower a few
thousand feet Tuesday morning. Some of the lift looks intense
especially from Holland to Ludington during the period of deeper
moisture. An early look at the Bufkit snow tool using the GFS
model suggests several inches of snow are likely for our WSW/W
flow lake effect belts, and some of the accumulation could also
occur further inland as well given wind speeds.

There is high confidence in 30-40 mph wind gusts Monday into
Tuesday. Winds initially from the SW Monday will shift westerly
by Tuesday. This will change the orientation of any lake enhanced
bands of snow. Also, tricky driving is anticipated after dark
Monday night and into especially early Tuesday with falling snow,
temperatures dropping just below freezing, and gusty winds
reducing visibility. There will likely be some travel delays.

 

I think somebody in WMI is in for a very nice surprise. My $$'s on the points region. Those two points that jut out into Lake Michigan are Little Sable and Big Sable points. They do very well in these scenarios. If I do a chase, that'll likely be my target zone. Not right on the coast, a bit inland with the expected wind direction and speed. 

[jaster220]

The secondary energy has become increasingly robust on the models, today.  The UK has the new low down to 979 mb in the UP and it now has widespread 1" backwash snow down through Iowa and Illinois.

 

  Mr. Conservative Uncle Ukie???  That's saying a lot. Did I mention a surprise in the making?

[jaster220]

0z NAM now puts 11.5” over MSP. Hmmmm. The low sits and spins and spins for days. Snow from that secondary piece that moves up through cheeseland retrogrades over the area. Wild stuff the next few days.

 

I think you meant hrs and hrs? 

[Stormhunter87]

And here comes the rain.

[jaster220]

28/0z snowfall maps as they roll in..

 

NAM:

 

 

 

GFS:

 

 

GEM:

 

 

ICON (weak sauce):

 

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

And here comes the rain.

And lots of it too. I will get get possibly an inch by the time the system leaves my area.

[jaster220]

0z suite:

 

NAM = I want some of what you're smoking!

 

ICON = Did the NAM steal your snow?

 

GFS/GEM = most reasonable look attm

[jaster220]

And lots of it too. I will get get possibly an inch by the time the system leaves my area.

 

You should at least see some snow bud. I think all the models are painting some accumulations even into SEMI 

[Hawkeye]

The Euro has actually weakened the secondary low the last couple runs, from 981 to 989 mb.

[jaster220]

Yep, and not a huge fan of that run either. Taking the SLP way west again. SPS should like it tho. Great pivot for MSP. This is a wild card event anyways.

[jaster220]

You should at least see some snow bud. I think all the models are painting some accumulations even into SEMI 

 

28/0z Euro

 

[bud2380]

1-2” of wrap around snow on the euro for a lot of Iowa. Really hits MSP. It will be interesting to watch that over the next couple days to see where that sets up

[Tom]

Yep, and not a huge fan of that run either. Taking the SLP way west again. SPS should like it tho. Great pivot for MSP. This is a wild card event anyways.

This is what sorta brings some excitement down this way not knowing what the heck we will end up wrt to the wrap around snow.  Hey, at least it will feel like winter again come Mon/Tue!  I'm helping my brother move on Monday so the stiff WSW breeze will certainly have some bite to it.

[Tom]

00z GEFS giving some hope for those around the GL's for more than coating???

 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

 

[Stacsh]

WSW winds are perfect for LES/LEHS snow for my area. I can see this overachieving in 1 county in from the Lake.

[Clinton]

6z Euro

[St Paul Storm]

^ gotta love the King’s consistency with this storm.

[St Paul Storm]

The first round of precip was freezing rain with surface temps in the upper 20s to around 30. Numerous accidents already reported around MSP.

[Hawkeye]

There has been a bit of rain here this morning, but only a few hundredths.  The main batch is tracking through the QC area where ~0.50" has fallen.

[St Paul Storm]

MN state patrol advising everyone in the metro to stay home. Unbelievable number of accidents being reported.

[Tom]

One thing is for certain, this beast will look so pretty on satellite and radar over the next couple days. The 12z 3km NAM showing some intense and convective banding around the GL’s. No doubt there will be some impressive snows where this storm stalls and pivots.

[CentralNebWeather]

Reading NWS disco this morning. Has added more counties to Winter Storm Warning, now just north of me, and may add more later. What was odd is that the forecaster is going with the GFS which shows less snow and they said they’re not using NAM or Euro snow amounts as they seem to high. I don’t think you ever discount the King. They ended the disco this way:

 

If snow band that is predicted to shift any farther south, and if

it does, we might need to add to the warning. The overall trend

with the NAMi is farther south, so we need to keep an eye on

this. Wind speeds should start picking up by tonight as the

pressure gradient increases behind the low passing through.

[Stormhunter87]

Already just over an inch of rain. Man if it was cold enough...

[CentralNebWeather]

6z Euro

NAM, Euro and Canadian want to hit my area hard. I hope it happens.